Changes Coming For Underperforming Jazz

Will Mitchell and Gobert reprise their roles as Jazz stars next season? (Trent Nelson, Salt Lake Tribune)

While four teams are still vying for an NBA Finals spot, the focus of the other 26 clubs — including the Utah Jazz — has shifted to the offseason.

A lot could change for the Jazz. I’m still of the opinion that they will not move Donovan Mitchell or Rudy Gobert this offseason, opting instead to give them one more year to see if they can make this duo work, but with big changes to the supporting cast. The Jazz haven’t been to the Western Conference Finals since 2007. If you have two perennial All-Stars on your team, you can’t let that happen.

Let’s look at their salary structure and what the future may hold for their 15 current regular roster players. 

Free agents

Hassan Whiteside: I give it a 0% chance that he returns to the team. He was an on-court upgrade over the departed Derrick Favors in the regular season, but never scored more than three points in any of Utah’s six playoff games. He’s a journeyman at this point in his career, and he’ll either sign with a team he feels will have a better chance of getting out of the first round for the vet minimum, or if a team will go beyond the minimum, he’ll wind up there regardless of their playoff hopes.

Danuel House Jr.: He was a bright spot after signing midway through the season. He’s a 6-foot-6 wing who played solid perimeter defense and hit 41.5% from 3. He’s ideal for Quin Snyder’s system, and I expect they’ll try to figure out how to keep him.

Eric Paschall (restricted): He had more DNP’s than most of Jazz Nation would have liked to have seen (and yet he appeared in 58 games). When he did play, he showed good hustle and energy. His 3-point shooting has improved every year, but most importantly, he and Donovan Mitchell are very good friends. He’s another guy I expect they’ll try to keep, and the matching rights will help.

Trent Forrest (restricted): It’s a sign on what a Jenga tower this roster was that his injury really hurt the Jazz in the playoffs. They missed his ability to move the ball and defend off the bench. The only way I see them keeping both Forrest and Jared Butler is if they are ready to move Mike Conley and start Mitchell at point guard.

Entering a contract year

Bojan Bogdanovic: A case could be made that Bogdanovic is the third most important player on the team, after only the All-Stars. He’s the Jazz’s second leading scorer, and the Jazz were 4-9 in the games he missed. Some teams could see him as that missing veteran piece, a 33-year-old outside shooter unafraid to go inside. What adds to his value is that team often want to trade longer contracts for players on expiring deals to give them flexibility. If the Jazz do move Bogey, they’d need to find other ways to make up for his scoring.

Juancho Hernangomez (non-guaranteed): Another midseason acquisition, Hernangomez showed enough in practice for Snyder to play him over Rudy Gay in the playoffs. They like his length and ability to hit the three, so I could see them keeping him, but his $7.4 million salary is also an ideal throw-in to make a bigger trade work.

Jared Butler: I think they like him. I expect a big sophomore jump, if Snyder lets him play. Too bad the second-round draft rules didn’t allow them to get him that third year.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker: The young guard could use more development. I think they see potential in him, but still being on his rookie deal, he’s an attractive throw-in piece in a trade. He’ll be a restricted free agent after next season.

Player options in 2023

Jordan Clarkson: His 3-point shooting was atrocious, and he had his least efficient season since he joined the Jazz. He went inside more toward the end of the season, which certainly helped save his efficiency. In all, he posted the second best +/- numbers on the team, behind only Rudy Gobert, and best on the whole team from February 1 on. As one Jazz beat writer once said, they may need to trade Clarkson to save Quin from himself, as no one on the team has a more green light, even when he has one of his 3-16 shooting nights.

Rudy Gay: In the tradition of Ed Davis or Jeff Green, Gay was another veteran signing that just didn’t work out. They’ll do what they can to move him. Tragically, he has never made it out of the first round of the playoffs in his entire career.

Two years left

Mike Conley:  Conley is a tremendous teammate, and a positive in nearly all lineups. But starting two 6-foot-1 guards in this day and age means no conference finals. The backcourts of the final four teams: Boston has 6-foot-3 Marcus Smart and 6-foot-6 Jaylen Brown; Miami has 6-foot Kyle Lowry and 6-foot-5 Max Strus; GSW has 6-foot-2 Steph Curry and 6-foot-6 Klay Thompson; and Dallas has 6-foot-1 Jalen Brunson and 6-foot-7 Luka Doncic. The only way I see Conley staying is if Mitchell is unexpectedly traded in some blockbuster.

Royce O’Neale: His numbers don’t look that much different than previous years, but his defense failed the eye test more and more this season. For many stretches he was the only non-French guy on the floor playing defense, and it was his clutch 3 that got them a win in the first round. I think it’s 50/50 if he’s on the team next year.

Udoka Azubuike (team option for 2023-24): His development’s been slow and his injuries are a concern. He does have potential, but this is the guy that basically cost Dennis Lindsey his job when he drafted him over Desmond Bane. (I guarantee 100% the Jazz would have made the second round this year and maybe WCF if they had selected Bane instead of Dok.)

The big two

Donovan Mitchell: When Mitchell was drafted, his defensive potential made his ceiling look like the next Dwyane Wade. Now it’s feeling more like Damian Lillard. The Mavs defense exposed his offensive weaknesses and he has a lot of work to do if he wants to be in the conversation as a top-10 NBA player. A multi-year All-Star, he’s currently in the Top 25 range. The sky is still the limit for him but he needs some — dare I say it — Mamba mentality to get there.

Rudy Gobert: Gobert is a historically good defender but his offensive flexibility has never materialized. He turns 30 next month; he should know by now how to go stronger against the basket. Yes, his FG% is great but it’s because his teammates hardly pass to him. His FGA this season was at its lowest point since 2017. That said, he obviously still has massive trade value.

We’ll see what happens on draft night, which doubles as the next big window for NBA transactions. The Jazz have no picks in the upcoming draft, but they could trade their way in there, or they use the flurry of transactions to make another deal.

My guess is that come October, this Jazz team will still feature Mitchell and Gobert, along with about six of the other guys currently on the roster. The rest will be new faces. The front office has a lot of work to do.