Core Rotation Strength Comparison Ahead of West Playoffs

The playoffs largely come down to a one team’s core units against another team’s core units. Let’s see how the West stacks up through that lens. (via utahjazz.com)

The notion that depth doesn’t matter after game 82 is just plain wrong. Virtually every deep playoff run by any team features big moments from key reserves. Whether it’s foul trouble, untimely injuries or just starter struggles, there’s almost no way to survive multiple playoff rounds without getting contributions past your core guys.

What is true is that many deep bench guys are going to disappear for the next couple of months. Playoff minutes per game tend to drop sharply after a team gets past its top nine or 10 guys, barring major injuries. So in terms of predicting how the next nine weeks will go, what’s most interesting and instructive is how teams have played with their main 10 guys on the court. Those regular season minutes when teams were leaning on the guys in the 11th through 17th spots on their depth chart — with all due respect — just won’t matter as much to determining their playoff success.

Now that the playoff field is set — New Orleans surged from behind in L.A. to take the eighth seed from the Clippers — we can evaluate every single Western Conference playoff team by how they played only in minutes when any five of their main 10* players were on the court.

(*For “main 10,” I went by regular season minutes played, excluding players who are no longer on that team or who aren’t expected to be available in the postseason. Then I used Cleaning the Glass to find the non-garbage time results of all lineup combinations made up of each team’s 10, with no deep bench involvement.)

Phoenix

Main 10: Mikal Bridges, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, Cam Payne, Torrey Craig, Landry Shamet, Aaron Holiday (3,458 possessions)

Results: +10.5, 118.4 offense (90th percentile), 107.8 (86th)

It’s not at all surprising to find yet another measurement where the Suns are elite. All combinations of their top 10 mpg guys are just silly dominant for the season. They are extremely disciplined on both ends of the court, and they’ve got waves of solid guard play coming off their bench.

Beyond the main 10: Injuries to Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky (they finally waived the latter so they could convert Ish Wainwright’s two-way contract) have made their frontcourt rotation feel a little thing, but JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo are next up in minutes per game.

Memphis

Main 10: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, De’Anthony Melton, Ziaire Williams, Kyle Anderson, Tyus Jones, Brandon Clarke (4,266 possessions)

Results: +7.5, 117.1 offense (85th), 109.7 defense (74th)

They’re fun, they’re fearless, they’re full of personality… but their efficiency differential with the main dudes is a step behind their peers in the top three. In a full-strength battle between the Grizz and Suns or the Grizz and Warriors, the opponents’ playoff are coming off a slightly more dominant season.  

Beyond the main 10: John Konchar has given them good minutes whenever they have needed a fill-in somewhere on the guard depth chart. Aside from him, Xavier Tillman Sr. is the only deep reserve in Memphis who appeared in even half the Grizzlies’ games.

Golden State

Main 10: Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Otto Porter Jr., Kevon Looney, Damion Lee, Andre Iguodala, Gary Payton II (2,973 possessions)

Results: +10.8, 114.9 offense (71st), 104.1 (96th)

Whoa. +10.8 is in the hyper-elite category. The issue is, the Warriors have had to go outside this group almost all season long because as soon as some long-time stars got healthy, others vanished for a while. For those who are unsure about GSW as a capital-C contender, this numbrer tells me they are very real. The success of this 10-man group is mostly based on defense, and Green hasn’t looked great on that end since the back injury absence. But if they get Curry healthy and Green feeling more spry, this becomes a really hard group of guys to score against.

Beyond the main 10: Jonathan Kuminga has looked ready to have a bigger role, Nemanja Bjelica’s basketball IQ has been evident in most cases when he has been called upon, and youngsters like Moses Moody and Juan Toscano-Anderson have had their moments.

Dallas

Main 10: Luka Doncic, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jalen Brunson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, Josh Green, Davis Bertans, Sterling Brown (2,832 possessions)

Results: +6.2, 118.1 offense (89th), 111.9 defense (57th)

The Mavs aren’t in the Suns’ or Warriors’ league by this measurement — or even quite in the Jazz & Grizzlies tier, either. But they’re solid. Of course the big question is how much Doncic do we see in the short term? Weirdly, if you take that same 10-man group and just subtract Luka, the overall quality holds up, they just get it done in a different way. Lineups with only the remaining nine guys are +5.5 for the season, with a middling offense and a smothering 106.2 defense.

Beyond the main 10: Tim Hardaway Jr. in in the top 10 but was left out since he’s not expected back with a broken left foot. Frank Ntilikina (currently day-to-day), Trey Burke and Marquese Chriss have all logged rotation minutes at different points throughout the season.

Utah

Main 10: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Royce O’Neale, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Danuel House, Rudy Gay, Hassan Whiteside, Juancho Hernangomez (3,266 possessions)

Results: +8.4, 118.3 offense (90th), 110.0 (72nd)

Well how about that: despite all the fretting over Utah’s bevy of blown leads and supposely busted chemistry, turns out the Jazz have been better than anybody outside Phx/GSW when only their main 10 guys have been on the basketball court. Of course, that group of 10 has shifted over the course of the season: Joe Ingles was injured/traded, and new arrivals House and Hernangomez hustled their way into Quin Snyder’s good graces and past other guys on the depth chart.

Beyond the main 10: Trent Forrest has played a real role throughout the regular season, but people assume that was mostly to keep Conley fresh for this moment and that he’ll have a reduced role now that the playoffs are here. For a while, Eric Paschall filled in anytime the Jazz were down a forward (like Bogdanovic or Gay), but Hernangomez appears to have moved past him on the depth chart.

Denver

Main 10: Nikola Jokic, Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, Jeff Green, Austin Rivers, Bones Hyland, Facu Campazzo, Bryn Forbes, Zeke Nnaji (3,612 possessions)

Results: +3.7, 117.5 offense (87th), 113.7 defense (40th)

The defense in particular has held back the Nuggets’ main groups back, and the unconvincing +3.7 lines up with the fact that Denver has been jostling for underseed positioning practically all year long. But there’s also a giant caveat here: I did not include Michael Porter Jr. in the number above, since it’s currently unclear if he will play in the postseason at all. Replace Nnaji with him in this exercise and the Nuggets jump to a more respectable +5.0. And then if at any point Jamal Murray becomes available, that’s an even bigger quality boost, although one we can’t quantify with 2021-22 lineup data since the star guard hasn’t played all season.

Beyond the main 10: JaMychal Green averaged fewer minutes than Nnaji, but played in more games. And then of course there is the MPJ/Murray question. DeMarcus Cousins has also played a prominent role, although his minutes are low since he plays behind an MVP candidate.

Minnesota

Main 10: Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, Jaden McDaniels, Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Taurean Prince, Naz Reid, Jaylen Nowell (4,996 possessions)

Results: +2.8, 115.8 offense (77th), 113.0 defense (47th)

The Wolves have been getting some love and have even been picked by a few talking heads to upset the Grizzlies. But the data on how they perform with their main guys says they’re not quite on the level of the Grizz with theirs. They’re +8.0 with all of KAT, Edwards and Russell on the court, but they can’t make it to a 9- or 10-man rotation as convincingly as anybody else in the Western Conference field.

Beyond the main 10: Jordan McLaughlin has played in 62 games, and the Wolves just brought Greg Monroe back on a rest-of-season deal, so those guys are probably next up if someone in the main 10 gets hurt or struggles.

New Orleans

Main 10: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Herb Jones, Devonte’ Graham, Larry Nance Jr. Jaxson Hayes, Garrett Temple, Tony Snell, Willy Hernangomez (1,276 possessions)

Results: +3.9, 119.8 offense (94th), 115.9 defense (23rd) 

The sample size is small with this core group, since McCollum arrived in February and Nance debuted even later. They have clearly been more solid since acquiring the borderline All-Star guard, but as the numbers here indicate, they are still behind the West’s best in terms of point differential when only their best guys are involved.

(Interestingly, the Suns may have dodged a bullet: the Clippers with groups comprised of THEIR top 10 were +9.0, with a solid offense and an elite defense. That’s a pretty good sign that with a healthy Paul George, the Clippers were actually right there with the West’s best.)

Beyond the main 10: Hernangomez is playing less now that Nance is healthy, so in actuality Jose Alvarado has really moved into the top 10 as of today… but we still wanted to be consistent with how we mined the data, and Willy was a top-10 mpg guy for the season.