Could Patience Be Virtuous for the Jazz Two Years in a Row?

Last year’s Jazz started the season 16-24 and were surrounded by questions about the makeup of the roster. The Ricky Rubio experiment was off to a terrible start half a season in and The Salt Lake Tribune’s Kurt Kragthorpe called for Donovan Mitchell to supplant Rubio, and his colleagues Tony Jones and Aaron Falk echoed the sentimenet on their “Weekly Run” podcast.

In hindsight, it seems like these viewpoints were shortsighted, if not outrageous. But nobody can blame them. The prevailing idea in Jazz fandom last January was that Rubio was not going to work out with the Jazz, or at least not playing alongside two big men. It didn’t feel like the Jazz were going to help Rubio make his first playoff appearance. Jazz fans were not so secretly running lottery odds for the upcoming draft.

We all know how the rest of the story unfolded. After the All-Star game, Rubio averaged 15 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds with efficient shooting and capped off a tremendous finish to the season with a triple double and 26 points in a resounding game 3 playoff win against the Thunder. By the time the Jazz played the Rockets in round 2, it felt like a great loss to see Rubio sidelined with a hamstring injury.

And yet not even seven months later, it feels like the Jazz are suffering from a similar slow start and it’s hard not to point a finger of blame at the two big man lineup or starting point guard. The current starting lineup is getting outscored by 3 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter and Ricky Rubio has shot less than 30 percent from the field in half of the Jazz’s games this season. And yet, it’s hard not to just assume the Jazz will turn this around for the long haul, since we just saw this group win 83 percent of their final 35 games and storm into the Western Conference semifinals.

The Short-Term Outlook for the Jazz

It’s hard not to feel let down by the Jazz’s start to this season, especially when most Jazz fans and national pundits picked them to finish in the top 4 in the West. Take into account the Nuggets’ and Trail Blazers’ hot starts and the fact that the Jazz have already lost twice at home to a 2017-18 lottery team in the Grizzlies, and the Jazz feel worse off than they probably are.

The most disappointing part of the season has been the defense. The Jazz have the 17th best defense in the league after Friday night’s victory and have given up huge offensive nights to Derrick Rose, a Kawhi Leonard-less Raptors team and Shelvin Mack twice. The 17th best defense would be a tremendous accomplishment for a dozen teams in the league, but not for the Jazz who could almost be penned in as a top 3 defensive team at season’s start.

Shelvin Mack (8) shot 30% from the 3 point line his last year with the Jazz but hit 6 of 8 three pointers against the Jazz this season. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)

The good news is that the Jazz boast the 8th most efficient offense in the league. They have done this by improving the quality of the shots they take and by leading the league in free throw attempts per game. If you added this season’s offense to last season’s defensive effort, we would be talking about a top 5 team in the NBA. That’s a big ask, however, to have this team defend 6 points per 100 possessions better, while maintaining their solid offense. But that is the blueprint to greatness this season and is still achievable.

How Much Patience Should the Jazz Have?

Whether or not the Jazz can get back to playing elite-level defense is up to the players and the coaching staff, but the long term questions can only be answered by management. Here are some of the questions that Dennis Lindsey and company will have to answer over the next 9 months:

How far can the roster as currently constructed take the Jazz?

This current Jazz team is not a legitimate title contender, but what if they added just one more free agent? Are there free agents who would sign with the Jazz AND significantly change their chances of winning a title? The Jazz will be linked to having interest in names like Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris, and Klay Thompson. Kemba Walker, Goran Dragic, and Terry Rozier also make some sense if the Jazz decide they’ve maxed their potential with Rubio.

What do you do with Rubio?

This question is so difficult, because despite all the uncertainties Ricky brings to title contention, he is clearly beloved by his teammates and is an easy player to root for. The Jazz are probably not in a position to move on from good players who want to be in Utah and who add so much to the team both on and off the court. The Jazz could either extend Rubio’s contract, eating into their offseason cap space, test free agent waters before deciding whether or not to bring Rubio back, or move on from him completely in the next nine months. The Jazz better be sure they have a better option available if they take the last option, however.

What do the Jazz do if they strike out in free agency?

Middleton is a hopeful target of the Jazz, but if the Bucks continue to light the NBA on fire, it’s difficult to see why he would leave that situation. Thompson has continuously said he wants to stay with the Warriors, and the Clippers will resign Harris if they don’t have better options. The real possibility exists that the Jazz have little to show with their ample cap space this offseason. Then what?

Who would make good trade targets?

An alternative to free agency would be an offseason trade into cap space. Kevin Love has been a popular target for this type of deal, but Zach Lowe went as far as saying that the Jazz wouldn’t trade for Kevin Love even if they had to send nothing in return. Love’s new long term deal clouds his trade value, although he would be a great fit with the Jazz on paper. Otto Porter and Danilo Gallinari have also been linked in the past to the Jazz and their teams will both potentially need to cut long term money. Then there is always the semi-star to star player that becomes surprisingly available, although the Jazz probably don’t have the assets — beyond the untradable Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell — to get far into those discussions.

The Jazz reportedly had interest in Porter during 2017 free agency. (Ned Dishman via washingtonwizards.com)

When is the right time to make a move?

Getting back to the question of patience, at what point do the Jazz try to trade for a player during the season and not wait for the summer? If Otto Porter Jr., for instance, is a desired target of the Jazz, the Wizards may be desperate enough that acquiring him could become possible during the season. Making a midseason trade certainly has an opportunity cost when summer free agency arrives, but so does waiting until summer and missing out on moves. This happened with Nikola Mirotic last year, although the Jazz were able to recover with the Jae Crowder trade.

Lindsey has a penchant for preferring offseason trades, but three of the best trades in Jazz history have all happened at the trade deadline in Jeff Hornacek, Kyle Korver, and Jae Crowder. This current team responded favorably to a midseason shake up last year and a repeat move may help again.

In short, this Jazz team deserves a chance to right the ship and show how good they can be. There are no Rodney Hoods or Joe Johnsons on this year’s roster, trying to find their way in the NBA universe at the expense of team chemistry. This summer will be a good opportunity to see how their ability to attract free agents has improved, but if a player they really like become available at a good price during the season, then the Jazz simply can’t wait until the summer.