December Rewind: Award Watch, Smallball, New Basketball Exec & More

January 7th, 2022 | by Zarin Ficklin

Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert led the Jazz to a successful December. (Rick Egan via sltrib.com)

2021 is in the books. Let’s look at the past month (and some change) forecasts about 2022.

Tracking the Jazz’s award chances throughout the season

Donovan Mitchell was December’s Western Conference Player of the Month. It’s the first time a Jazz player has won the award since Deron Williams, and only the fifth player in franchise history. Mitchell earned the award by averaging over 30 points per game and over 50% shooting from the field throughout the month.

This bolsters Mitchell’s contention for several awards. He’s all but a lock for making his third All-Star team. In a recent podcast, both Zach Lowe and Chris Herring both picked him as a sure thing and actually even said he’d start on their imaginary teams. Steph Curry will surely be a starting guard, so Mitchell will compete with Ja Morant, Chris Paul, and Luka Doncic for the other position. Half of the voting weight for starters is determined by fans. While Mitchell is popular, his competitors are more so.

Teammate Rudy Gobert is also an All-Star lock, and was also picked as a starter on Lowe’s podcast. That’s a longer shot in reality, but the respect is appreciated. Gobert trails Draymond Green in the Defensive Player of the Year award according to Vegas odds. This isn’t really a fault of Gobert’s, but a testament to how good Green and the Warriors have been. Golden State owns the best record and best defense, and Utah as a team may need to pass the Warriors to improve Gobert’s case. While I think Draymond is deserving of the award, it’s worth noting how much narrative plays into awards like these. The Warriors are resurging. There is voter fatigue with Gobert. And versatile defense is in vogue. Speaking of versatility…

In other award races, Jordan Clarkson has a lot of ground to cover if he wants to repeat as Sixth Man of the Year.

It’s also worth noting that Mitchell and Gobert are frequenting MVP lists. They’re not serious contenders for winning the actual award this season, but they’ll get votes, and that’s a big step.

Relevant on-court themes that could translate to the postseason

Utah’s smallball lineups are a work in progress. Lineups with Rudy Gay at center struggled against the Warriors, but Gay had perhaps his best game of the season against the Denver Nuggets. Luckily there’s a lot of season left to work things out. But when it comes to the playoffs, I don’t think the Jazz need to worry about playing smallball themselves so much as have the ability to defend it. They want Rudy on the floor as much as possible, and he’s not the issue. As has been discussed ad nauseam, the Jazz need better perimeter defense.

Much of this will come down to whether the Jazz make a trade or not, so I won’t spend too many words on this right now. At this point it’s simply clear that it’s an issue the team needs to solve one way or another.

Also related to playoff performance, Utah’s offense feels matchup proof. They can score in so many different ways. They shoot the most 3s in the league, and yet their offense can still hum when it’s not falling. The Jazz should be able to out-gun any team they meet in the post-season. The defense remains a question mark.

It’s also time to start monitoring seeding. The Jazz will continue to jockey with the Warriors and Suns for first seed. Any of the top seeds could face a flawed team with a superstar (LeBron, Luka, Jokic, George, etc.) in the first round — this is nearly unavoidable. It matters more for the second and third rounds. Assuming Utah, Golden State, and Suns finish in the top three and advance, the top seed will only have to play one of the other contenders rather than both.

When we look back on December, we’ll think of these key moments

December belonged to Mitchell, who literally got the month’s award. Mitchell has started multiple seasons slow. His points per game average tends to increase month-by-month. But usually his hot streaks are much later in the season. That Mitchell had a 30 point average in December is a great sign for the rest of the season. I really believe he could lead the league in scoring. He’s 8th in scoring this season, but he plays fewer minutes that five of the players ranked above him. There’s also his sluggish start and below-average three point shooting to factor in.

For posterity’s sake, let’s also include this tangentially Jazz defining moment:

Looking forward, what big issues do the Jazz still need to answer?

Last month the biggest question was centered on perimeter defense and trades. That remains the case this season. Jerami Grant and Harrison Barnes have been popular names. But Bojan Bogdanovic is making the idea of such trades harder to swallow. Bogey is having a career year in efficiency and is excelling in his role. With wrist injuries firmly in the rearview window, it’s not unreasonable to expect this level of play to sustain. And while Bogdanovic is not a great perimeter defender, we’ve seen him compete admirably on that end of the floor come playoff time. A player like Grant or Barnes would need a starting role. It doesn’t make sense for the Jazz to bench Bogey. It also doesn’t make sense to trade Royce O’Neale, when perimeter defense is the team’s primary need. So is it really worth trading Bogdanovic and bunch of assets for a little more defense?

This leads to the biggest burning question of January, 2022:

1) What will Danny Ainge do?

My opinion is that the Jazz are better served upgrading their point of attack defense at the backup guard position. The tricky thing is that involves trading one of the two players who both: a) finished in the top-2 for Sixth Man of the Year, b) are incredibly popular with the fanbase, and c) are core to the team culture. Could the Jazz really trade Joe Ingles or Clarkson? With new basketball executive Danny Ainge at the helm, that suddenly becomes much more possible.

There has been much ado about trading Ingles on Jazz twitter recently. It makes sense, as he’s on an expiring contract and has looked slower this season. But Clarkson has much more trade value.

While I like the theoretical fit of Barnes or Grant, I’m skeptical the Jazz have a compelling enough offer. Targeting a backup guard that can also defend wings seems more likely. Eric Gordon, anyone?

Ainge made his first move by trading Miye Oni. While this looks like a money saving decision on the surface, it may pave the way to other moves.

2) How do the Jazz stack up against the Warriors and Suns?

As mentioned earlier, wins against the Warriors and Suns are extra important for seeding. But with a collision with either team likely, understanding how the Jazz stack up is also important. Both rivals features star guards that can penetrate perimeter defense — Utah’s key weakness. But neither team excels at pulling Gobert out of the middle. How the Jazz defends these teams could inform how much a roster move is really needed. There’s still the argument that with a healthy Mike Conley and Mitchell, the overall defense is good enough given how potent their offense is.

Moreover, the Warriors and Suns are the two most complete teams, and represent ideal measuring sticks for the Jazz. While we shouldn’t overreact from any one game, we’ll have four matchups against these teams by the end of the month.

December 2021 was an overall solid month for the franchise. Let’s hope that continues into the new year.

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