Defining Stats from a Historic Jazz Season

May 19th, 2021 | by Zarin Ficklin

Mitchell is one of several Jazz players to post some eye-popping stats during the club’s 52-20 season. (via ESPN.com)

The Utah Jazz had one of their best seasons in franchise history. Despite missing their star guards for a combined 40 games, they still finished the season with some historically great numbers:

  • 1st place overall, best ranking in franchise history
  • .722 winning percentage, fifth best in franchise history
  • 8.97 simple rating system (accounts for strength of schedule and average point differential), best in franchise history
  • 1st in defense, 3rd in offense (per Cleaning the Glass), the best combined rankings in franchise history
  • 9.3 net rating (or 11.2 when you remove garbage time), good for second best in franchise history and 13th all-time in the NBA
  • Three Jazz All-Stars, tied for best in franchise history

There’s also a good chance that Rudy Gobert will win Defensive Player of the Year, 1st Team All-Defense, and All-NBA honors; that one of Joe Ingles or Jordan Clarkson will win Sixth Man of the Year; and that Quin Snyder will earn significant Coach of Year votes.

Had Donovan Mitchell remained healthy, he would have a strong case for All-NBA (and still has a chance of making it, even after missing 19 games). And who knows what heights the team would’ve reached with better health.

Yes, the playoffs loom. The Jazz will have to prove themselves, likely against one or both L.A. teams if they want to make the NBA Finals. But let’s celebrate one of the most fun and successful regular season campaigns we’ve seen. It was a pleasure to watch many of the players have careers years. Here are some defining numbers from the top 9 rotation players:

Donovan Mitchell: 38.5 points per 100 possessions

Mitchell improved in nearly every statistical category. More than anything though, he’s become a bonafide pure scorer (which happens to be the most valuable skill in basketball). He finished the season averaging 26.4 points per game, good for 10th best in the league. Some context makes this number much more impressive: Mitchell only played 33.4 minutes per game. If you adjust his scoring to points per 100 possessions, Mitchell averaged 38.5 points. Only 11 players in NBA history have reached a higher scoring rate by their fourth season.

Rudy Gobert: 1st… in every advanced defensive stat

Gobert may have had the best defensive season in NBA history — at least in terms of advanced metrics that go back as far as 1977. It will always be impossible to rank the best defensive players of all time because of how murky defensive measurement is. But there is something to ranking 1st in every advanced defensive impact stat. Read Ben Dowsett’s piece on 538 and see Salt City Hoops’ Jake Lee’s visual summary:

While these were Rudy’s defining stats, I also want to note his 6.2% Hall of Fame probability via basketball-reference.com. This number is likely to be much higher after he wins another DPOY and All-NBA team. And even more so now that defensive standout Ben Wallace will join the Hall.

Mike Conley: +548 plus-minus

Conley finished the season with a plus-minus of 548, behind only his teammate Gobert (and it should be noted that the top four are all Jazz players). It’s been duly noted that Conley benefits from sharing all his minutes with Gobert. This is true, but Mike’s overall impact is undeniable both by the advanced stats and the eye test. Everything runs smoother when Mike is running the show, and his creation skills have allowed Mitchell to flourish. His plus-minus illustrates his enormous positive impact whenever he’s on the floor. Simply put, this is the Mike Conley the Jazz wanted when they traded for him.

One other quick note on Conley: Chris Paul is rightly getting MVP buzz, and will probably make All-NBA. Paul is generally considered the better player, and that’s probably true. But compare their numbers this season, and the gap is not that large.

Bojan Bogdanovic: 22.8 points per game since Mitchell’s injury

Since Donovan Mitchell was injured, Bojan took upon to the primary scoring load, averaging 22.8 points per game since April 17. Bogdanovic started the season slow, possibly due to a nagging wrist injury or fewer touches. While his usage should drop down again when Mitchell and Conley are both back, Bogdanovic has proven himself the capable primary option when needed. And the Jazz may very well need that in the playoffs, when defensive schemes take Mitchell and Conley away. Last year Bogdanovic was sorely missed in the playoff series against Denver. This season we’ll get to see how teams try to take away three legit scorers.

Royce O’Neale: highest matchup difficulty among wings

O’Neale is an essential part of the Jazz success. I thought about featuring his 9.6% usage rate — a number that is almost comically low for a starter, and yet necessary for a team with so many capable scorers. But more valuable than his willingness to sacrifice raw stats, he is Utah’s primary perimeter defender. Bball-index.com tracks matchup difficulty (meaning who has the toughest defensive assignments) and O’Neale ranks 1st among wing stoppers. Basically, he has to guard the best opposing player every minute he’s on the floor.

Combine this, and the fact that he plays the second most minutes on the team, while still maintaining a 39% accuracy from three, and O’Neale remains the ultimate glue guy in his second season as a full-time starter.

Joe Ingles: .652 effective field goal percentage

Ingles’ value is that he’s generally good at most important basketball skills: shooting, passing, decision making, defending — he’s a Swiss army knife of a player, and may very well win the Sixth Man of Year because of it. But what jumps off the page is his incredible efficiency. His .652 eFG% is 18th of all time. What make this even more impressive is that all but two of the players ranked above him are big men, whose efficiency comes from shooting near the rim. In contrast, Ingles shot 69% of his shots as threes. To reach such efficiency from mostly long range is historically rare.

Jordan Clarkson: 94 consecutive games with a made 3-pointer

In contrast to his backcourt mate, Clarkson’s efficiency waxed and waned throughout the season. But his role is more focused as a pure bucket-getter. Yes, Clarkson was sometimes overzealous in his shot hunting. And his accuracy numbers dropped after flirting with the 50/40/90 club at the beginning of the season. But Clarkson is also tasked with manufacturing offense — at times outside of what the opposing defense schemes for. And there’s something to be said for volume scoring off the bench. It’s hard to score 18.4 points per game in less than 27 minutes per game. Efficiency numbers don’t account for degree of difficulty or volume, and watching Clarkson play makes it clear that he’s a skilled scorer.

How does Clarkson do it? With an improved shot selection. This season only 2% of his shots came from the long midrange, which at early points of his career had been as high as 27%. Now he shoots 55% of his shots from three, dramatically higher than 19% in his first season. If you ever listen to the Utah broadcast, you’ve heard at length about his streak of consecutive games with a made thre, now at 94 games. While the streak itself is not really important, it’s emblematic both of Clarkson’s role a scorer and transformation of his shot profile.

Georges Niang: 1.4 defensive win shares

It was tempting to highlight Niang’s career high 4.1 three-point attempts on a career high .425 percent accuracy, but he’s always been a solid shooter. Niang’s biggest growth has been on the defensive end, where he’s moved from an immediate target to a respectable defender. While defensive numbers are murky, his 1.4 defensive win shares is a career best. Look up Niang on most advanced stats and he fairs pretty well. The eye-test backs up the numbers. Niang is a clearly improved defender, both with his timing and positioning. The minivan may not be the most athletic player, but his IQ and size keep him on the floor. He’s been a fantastic 9th man, and may once more have opportunity for important playoff contribution.

Derrick Favors: 15.3 minutes per game

Favors’ season can be tricky to evaluate. His minutes dropped from 24.4 per game in the previous season to just 15.3 (and this was no surprise to Favors or the Jazz). At times his athleticism has felt rickety. And he plays behind Rudy Gobert, so the contrast in impact is extra visible. Speaking of contrast, Favors is often evaluated through the lens of not being Tony Bradley. This may not be fair to either player, but the truth is that Utah hemorrhaged leads during backup center minutes last season, and Favors was brought in to steady the ship. We can debate whether 15 minutes of backup center are worth $30 million over 3 years, but those minutes highlight a few important things:

  1. Favors’ style of play allow the Jazz to play a consistent style of play the entire game

  2. Favors’ willingness to sacrifice minutes sets the tone a team that emphasizes unselfishness

  3. Favors is good enough to play against opposing starting centers. This allows Gobert to stagger against opposing bench units, to enormous success.

You can make the argument that six of the above nine players had a career year. The team itself certainly had a year to remember. Anything can happen in the playoffs, particularly with so many contender level teams in the Western Conference. But no matter what happens, the Jazz provided an enormously entertaining season during a time when fans especially needed it.

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