Donovan Mitchell, Elite Scorer

Mitchell’s development as a scorer tracks with this era’s elite guards. (via espn.com)

Pre-All-Star break, it was clear Donovan Mitchell had used his incredible playoff performance as a launchpad to make a leap between his third and fourth seasons. His counting stats and efficiency increased across the board — incrementally in some cases, but improvement nonetheless.

But now, since the All-Star break, Mitchell has made another leap.

Spida is a 2nd half of szn type player.

Career: PPG • APG • FG% • 3P%

Oct 18.3 • 3.3 • 44 • 34
Nov 21.4 • 3.6 • 42 • 34
Dec 22.0 • 3.9 • 44 • 32

Jan 24.2 • 4.5 • 45 • 39
Feb 25.0 • 4.7 • 43 • 37
Mar 24.8 • 4.6 • 44 • 37
Apr 25.0 • 4.9 • 47 • 44

— Jake Lee (@JakeRexLee) March 30, 2021

Donovan Mitchell last 10 games
31 points per game
5 rebounds
6 assists

48% FG 45% 3pt 88% FT

Donovan Mitchell last 5 games
32 points
5 rebounds
6 assists

56% FG 51% 3pt 97% FT pic.twitter.com/UeGkmfiRXe

— David Locke (@DLocke09) March 29, 2021

Mitchell this season

Before we see how Mitchell stacks up against the elite of the league, let’s zoom out and summarize what he has been doing this season:

• Averaging 25.6 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists, all career highs
• 52.4 eFG% and 57.1 TS%, also career highs
• Usage is 32.5%, 7th in the league (up from 30.8%)
• 3-point frequency is 40% (up from 33%)
• 3-point accuracy is 40% (up from 37%)
• Fouled on 10% of his shots (up from 8%)
• Attacks the rim at the same rate as last season (23%), but this is down from his first two seasons, and his rim accuracy is down to 57% (from 61%)
• Made his 2nd All-Star appearance
• 9th in Basketball-Reference’s MVP tracker
• BBall Index gives him an ‘A’ in nearly every offensive impact stat (LEBRON, RPM, RAPTOR, BPM, RAPM)

The bottom line is that Mitchell is already one of the league’s top tier scorers, and we’ll explore what he needs to do to join the elite of the elite.

Donovan Mitchell the scorer

Mitchell is the NBA’s 11th leading scorer at 25.7 points per game. There are ten players scoring more, but Donovan is still on pace to be a historically great scorer for two reasons:

1. He’s playing fewer minutes than every player above him except for Zion Williamson.

2. He’s younger than every player above him besides Zion and Luka Doncic.

(An obvious aside: Zion and Luka are also on pace to be historically great scorers).

The Jazz own the league’s best record and best net rating, which means Mitchell is often sitting portions of the 4th quarter and playing fewer minutes overall. If you instead convert points per game to points per 100 possessions, which adjusts for time played and pace, Donovan is averaging 37.2 points, neck-and-neck with #6–10 on the list of top scorers.

Only 10 players in NBA history have scored at that rate in their 4th seasons or earlier (Zion and Luka are among them). And only 12 other guards have matched that scoring rate in their 4th season or later in the 3-point era.

I’ve compared Mitchell to all-time great shooting guards. This is helpful for charting growth, but problematic when comparing stats directly. Teams in previous eras scored less due to some combination of rules, schemes, and talent pools. Points per game are much more gaudy in the modern NBA, so it’s difficult to determine just how similar Mitchell is to a player like Dywane Wade or Allen Iverson.

Mitchell compared to active players

It’s easier to use comparisons with active NBA players, who are playing in the same shifting landscape. I asked Twitter which active player is most similar to Donovan Mitchell. I agree with this response:

Dame/Beal hybrid. Hopeful that he can reach the level of those guys. The last couple weeks certainly make it seem like he’s on that trajectory.

— Matt Devine (@sodevine679) March 29, 2021

Current Mitchell is like a blend of Bradley Beal and Damian Lillard a few seasons ago, and is actually not that far behind their current iterations when you adjust for minutes per game. From a raw numbers and career growth aspect, Mitchell may be most similar to Devin Booker. But Booker is the same age as Mitchell, so that comp is less useful for charting future growth.

Mitchell also has shades of Kyrie Irving, Steph Curry, and James Harden — particularly so in their earlier seasons before they exploded into bonafide superstars. If anything, their inclusion provides a helpful benchmark.

Let’s see how these elite guards stack up against each other this season. All stats are per basketball-reference.com and cleaningtheglass.com and as of March 30, 2021. Harden’s numbers do not include his eight early-season games with Houston.

Shot Frequency (% of Shot Attempts)

Mitchell’s shot profile is most similar to James Harden’s (whose looks quite a bit different in Brooklyn compared to his Houston days). Ideally he continues to convert midrange shots into rim and 3-point attempts like Dame and Curry, who are shooting over half of their shots from downtown. But Beal, Booker, and Irving show that it’s possible to be an efficient volume scorer with a healthy dose of midrange shots.

Shot Accuracy

While Mitchell is an excellent 3-point shooter, his rim and midrange accuracy is a step below other elite guards. The midrange crew of Beal, Booker, and Irving can justify their shot profiles with their accuracy. Donovan can either improve his accuracy, or ditch them altogether like Dame. His finishing is not quite as far behind, but has room for improvement. The good news is that these stars improved their rim accuracy as their careers progressed. The other good news is that Mitchell’s 3-point accuracy on his current volume is well ahead of pace.

Foul Drawing

Mitchell has shown improvement in drawing fouls, up from 8.7% of his shots last season to 10.4% this season. Booker has always been better at this, and that’s a big reason his efficiency numbers have always edged Mitchell’s. Making another mini-leap in foul drawing will be the key to scoring at Dame and Beal’s level. A big part of that is simply taking more shots at the rim. If Mitchell takes about 5% more shots at rim, he’ll be there.

Stats per 100 Possessions

When you compare raw counting stats, Mitchell is at the bottom of this group, and there’s a good reason for that: he’s playing the fewest minutes per game at 33.6. James Harden, for comparison, is playing 38.7 minutes per game for Brooklyn. In this comparison, Mitchell is more middle-of-the-pack. He’s a clear step above Booker and most similar to Irving. Curry sets himself apart, and Harden is the best rebounder and passer (especially when not focusing on scoring so much). Again, Lillard is a good target for Mitchell, as his assists continue to rise.

Efficiency

This is Mitchell’s most efficient season, but there is still a gap between him and the most elite guards of the league. We can ignore Curry, the best shooter in the game’s history. Harden was efficient in a bench role, but didn’t hit his efficiency stride as the number one option until his 9th season. The stat breakdowns above chart a course for Mitchell to improve: continue to mold his shot chart around his best shots, and attack the rim more often to draw fouls. Luckily those other stars took some time to build up their efficiency.  So Mitchell is well on track.

Lessons to learn

Donovan can take away something from each of these star guards if he wants to crash their tier.

Bradley Beal: Beal made a real leap in his 8th season, when he figured out how to draw fouls at an elite rate. Mitchell needs to do the same. Interestingly, Beal has decreased his rim and 3-point shooting rates during his 30 ppg seasons, drilling midrange shots at a blistering accuracy. Mitchell will take midrange shots when given to him, but is not as accurate as Beal, something he will have to improve.

Damian Lillard: Dame also became a 30 ppg player in his 8th season. Unlike Beal, he focused on rim accuracy (55% to 60%) and 3-point frequency (40% to 50% of his shots). This is a more analytically friendly approach than Beal’s, but Mitchell seems to be a blend of both players based on his current shot profile. But Mitchell is better 3-point shooter than Beal, to it makes sense to lean toward the Dame approach. Dame has always been a better passer than Mitchell, but his skill improved throughout his career, so hopefully Mitchell’s will too.

Devin Booker: It’s hard to take away too much from a player who is the same age and so statistically similar. But Booker has always been better at drawing fouls, and it’s clear this is a big key for Donovan.

Kyrie Irving: Mitchell will never be the ball-handler Kyrie is, and maybe never quite the shooter, at least around the rim. While Kyrie is an elite finisher, he doesn’t attack or draw fouls as often as his accuracy suggests he should. Mitchell could learn from that.

Steph Curry: Mitchell will never be the shooter Steph is, but he can continue to push the envelope. Steph is shooting a wild 54% of his shots as 3s, and Mitchell is trending this direction. From a high-level perspective, Mitchell can draw confidence from the fact that Steph led a team to the title as the number one option, averaging “only” 23.8 point per game. Mitchell doesn’t have to wait to be a 30 ppg guy before realizing championship aspirations.

James Harden: Current Harden is defined by gaudy scoring numbers, double-digit assists, drawing fouls, and his hyper efficient shot profile. But it took him a while to get there. Mitchell is not that unlike Harden in his early Houston days, especially when you realize that Harden played 38 minutes in many of those seasons so the numbers are a bit inflated. Harden’s was a steady growth as he leaned into the things he was best at, building year by year.

At the beginning of the season I projected that based on how other star guards have improved from year 3 to 4, Mitchell might average (per 36) something like: 26.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, on 55.8 TS%. Instead he’s currently averaging (per 36) 27.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists on 57.1 TS%.

He’s well ahead of schedule, and the path to even more elite production is clearly mapped by his fellow stars.