Exploring Utah’s Most Used Early Lineups

November 6th, 2023 | by Steve Godfrey

The Jazz are looking for combinations that produce winning outcomes. (Rick Bowmer via stlrib.com)

With seven games separated into the win and loss columns, the Jazz have lost a couple by double-digits (opening night against Sacramento 114-130 and a bigger beatdown from Phoenix 126-104), then traveled to the other end of the spectrum to win a game by double digits (against Memphis, 133-109).

Sprinkled throughout are some better-balanced battles. Jordan Clarkson’s heroics against the Clippers led to a two-point win, and a furious rally came up short against the Magic in a 113-115 loss. Across these games, the Jazz have displayed depth while providing opportunities for last-seat on-the-bench type players (15 players have seen the NBA court for at least a minute this season). All told, the NBA.com lineup tool has the Jazz down as having used 99 five-man lineup combinations, but below are the 20 most lineups, with stats from Basketball Reference.

Some of the information means nothing, but some of it may be a key indicator. The small sample sizes on some of these lineups makes it way too early to draw definitive conclusions, but it doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun. Let’s check out the 20 five-man groups Utah has deployed.

Regular Season: 5-Man Combinations Table
NetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNet
RkLineupMPPTSFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%eFG%ORBDRBTRBTRB%ASTSTLBLKTOVPF
1J. Clarkson | J. Collins | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen72:45-19.2-6.3+6.2-.100-2.6-0.9-.064-.118+5.0-1.9+1.7+3.8-2.4-3.6-1.5+3.7+1.4
2J. Clarkson | J. Collins | K. George | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton22:29-4.5+3.4+32.0-.155+14.5+24.6+.264-.086+16.6-12.1+2.1+5.6-2.6+4.4-14.6-0.4+3.2
3J. Clarkson | J. Collins | T. Horton-Tucker | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk18:51+39.9+18.2+14.6+.136+5.2+5.9+.094+.155-2.0+6.6+2.5+4.5-2.0+2.3-2.6-7.1+1.2
4J. Clarkson | J. Collins | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton13:56+10.0-5.2-20.0+.065-9.1-33.7+.095+.028+0.2+11.9+6.3+20.0+7.2+6.00.0+0.5-4.8
5O. Agbaji | K. George | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen | C. Sexton13:00-51.3-18.0-19.1-.103-13.0-17.6-.133-.152-9.4-0.3-3.8-7.1+6.6-8.0-12.4+8.9-3.8
6O. Agbaji | K. George | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton12:09+43.5+13.0+17.4+.029+21.7+39.1+.133+.121+13.00.0+6.5+17.6+21.70.00.00.0+6.5
7O. Agbaji | K. George | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen10:41-43.6-12.6-5.2-.111+0.5+21.4-.133-.106-9.3-11.7-9.8-20.0-13.3-5.2+14.3+5.50.0
8O. Agbaji | J. Clarkson | J. Collins | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton10:00-18.6-1.8+14.4-.126-9.5-5.7-.238-.207+13.0+1.4+6.7+17.6+8.1-12.8+9.1+8.10.0
9K. Dunn | K. George | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen9:48+61.7+19.8+14.3+.135+22.1+9.3+.417+.237-4.3+1.30.00.0+27.8-5.3+3.8-18.5-7.5
10O. Agbaji | K. Dunn | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen8:49+55.9+26.1-5.3+.274+3.8-20.3+.167+.295+8.0+44.1+25.0+41.7+27.6-18.5+15.8+13.3-5.0
11J. Clarkson | J. Collins | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen | C. Sexton8:23-30.1-14.0-14.8-.082-5.3-17.3-.167-.107+12.8+8.8+10.0+16.7-6.3-19.0-9.5+18.5-5.0
12J. Clarkson | J. Collins | K. Dunn | T. Horton-Tucker | K. Olynyk8:01-11.1-1.5+17.8-.121-17.3-24.0-.167-.282+21.1+7.3+13.5+29.4-17.3+5.8-15.8+4.1-5.4
13J. Clarkson | J. Collins | K. George | T. Horton-Tucker | K. Olynyk7:07-83.3-44.2+16.7-.592-17.3-10.3-.417-.704+23.1-37.8-8.0-20.0-67.30.00.0-0.6-4.0
14J. Collins | S. Fontecchio | K. George | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton7:03-4.0+14.3+40.8-.089+6.3+7.7+.200-.056+6.6-1.1+3.0+11.1+1.8+5.9-6.3-11.4+3.0
15O. Agbaji | K. Dunn | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton6:19-18.8+18.8+18.8+.115-6.30.0-.333+.065+6.3+6.3+6.3+20.0+12.5-6.3-6.3+12.5+9.4
16K. Dunn | S. Fontecchio | L. Šamanić | C. Sexton | O. Yurtseven6:02+23.1+4.4+30.2-.100+14.3+12.6+.400-.033+14.3-19.2-3.7-7.7+4.9+23.1-6.6-15.90.0
17K. Dunn | S. Fontecchio | K. George | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen5:58+18.2-9.1-36.4+.083+18.2+9.1+.400+.208+9.1+36.4+22.7+45.5-9.1-9.10.0+36.4-18.2
18O. Agbaji | K. Dunn | K. George | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler5:54-33.3-8.3-8.3-.038-25.0-25.0-.225-.155-16.7-8.3-12.5-33.3-16.70.0+8.3-8.30.0
19J. Clarkson | J. Collins | K. George | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk5:100.0-8.3-41.7+.127+8.3+16.7+.083+.202-25.00.0-12.5-27.3+8.3-8.3+8.30.00.0
20J. Clarkson | J. Collins | K. George | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen4:12-45.5-10.1-13.1-.029-25.3-21.2-.333-.157+11.1+5.1+10.0+33.3-23.2-11.1+9.1+24.20.0
Team Average336:12-6.6-1.4+5.0-.042+1.3+0.7+.029-.039+5.3+0.4+2.9+6.6+0.3-3.1-3.7+3.5+0.3
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/5/2023.

The Starters

Regular Season: 5-Man Combinations Table
NetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNet
RkLineupMPPTSFGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%eFG%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPF
1J. Clarkson | J. Collins | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen72:45-19.2-6.3+6.2-.100-2.6-0.9-.064-.118+5.0-1.9+1.7-2.4-3.6-1.5+3.7+1.4
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/5/2023.

The Jazz have stuck with the same starters for all seven games, most notably keeping the same point guard in place with Talon Horton-Tucker running the show from the get-go. This five-man group has played almost 73 minutes together, but the biggest red flag is a -19 for net points together, which is simply the number of points the unit scores together minus the number of points they defend together and have scored against them. 

For some reason (to be more thoroughly analyzed after more time, I would assume), center Walker Kessler has been a missing piece in the starting lineup, with most games in single digits on offense. In fact, in five games so far, Kessler has been single-digits for points and rebounds which is a big surprise to the rate he gobbled up boards and putbacks last year. He’s been noticeably off, some wondering if he is sick, tired from summer ball, transitioning from a summer role to an NBA role, or unsure of fit next to newcomer John Collins.

Speaking of Collins, he has been amazing in the Jazz jersey. Last year, the dude shot 29% from deep with the Hawks but that number is up to nearly 36% with the Jazz in the seven games played thus far. He also had four double-doubles in the first six games. He’s been a threat from deep, has played with a high motor, and is a big rebound machine. As the lineup numbers show, the Jazz are plus on rebounds with Lauri Markkanen, Collins, and Kessler (when he is on) hitting the glass like crazy, with the backcourt of Clarkson (averaging four a game) and THT (2.7) positively contributing as well. This was best evidenced in the narrow loss to Denver as the starting lineup combined for 42 rebounds. If we need to go big, this starting lineup is the way to do so. 

Kelly Olynk

While many thought Kelly Olynyk would be the odd man out with the addition of Collins, he has been more invaluable than ever in his glue guy role throughout this 2023-24 season.

While watching Jazz games (thanks Jazz+!), I’ll admit that Olynyk is usually a guy whose minutes I had wished would go elsewhere as he never seemed to fit our timeline or roster construction, or just seemed like the odd rotational piece as an after Collins’ arrival. Now, I’m grateful when he checks in because, based solely on the eye test, good things happen with him around. As I thought about the lineup combinations and this article, I bet myself that I would see lineup data that proved my eye test correct and the Jazz have healthy combinations when Olynyk is in the picture. 

Out of seven positive lineups in the top 20 for minutes, Olynyk is part of three of them. 

Regular Season: 5-Man Combinations Table
NetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNet
RkLineupMPPTS
FGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%eFG%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPF
3O. Agbaji | K. George | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton12:09+43.5+13.0+17.4+.029+21.7+39.1+.133+.121+13.00.0+6.5+21.70.00.00.0+6.5
4J. Clarkson | J. Collins | T. Horton-Tucker | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk18:51+39.9+18.2+14.6+.136+5.2+5.9+.094+.155-2.0+6.6+2.5-2.0+2.3-2.6-7.1+1.2
7J. Clarkson | J. Collins | L. Markkanen | K. Olynyk | C. Sexton13:56+10.0-5.2-20.0+.065-9.1-33.7+.095+.028+0.2+11.9+6.3+7.2+6.00.0+0.5-4.8
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/5/2023.

Why? The best things about Olynyk are all of the little things. He isn’t selfish and will pass the ball to help run the offense. He is crafty when setting picks or sealing off a lane. He isn’t afraid to slide over and take a charge when on defense. He can pull up for a needed three without hesitation. He has the old man tricks in his bag. Sometimes, you just need a player who will impact the game with or without the basketball and make the guys around him better. That’s O. 

Out of all players who have had significant minutes, it’s Olynyk who lines up behind Markkanen as team leaders in PER, a stat that stands for player efficiency rating. Markkanen is at 21.5 and then Big O is number two at 17.4. While he isn’t sexy and the days when he is a zero are rough (hello, Timberwolves game), more often than not he is the veteran big man needed on the court to make things work. 

The best (and second best)

Interestingly enough, the two best lineups feature four common players: Markkanen, Big Kes, THT, and Kris Dunn. Rotating for that next slot are two of my favorites: young guards Ochai Agbaji and Keyonte George. 

Regular Season: 5-Man Combinations Table
NetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNetNet
RkLineupMPPTS
FGFGAFG%3P3PA3P%eFG%ORBDRBTRBASTSTLBLKTOVPF
1K. Dunn | K. George | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen9:48+61.7+19.8+14.3+.135+22.1+9.3+.417+.237-4.3+1.30.0+27.8-5.3+3.8-18.5-7.5
2O. Agbaji | K. Dunn | T. Horton-Tucker | W. Kessler | L. Markkanen8:49+55.9+26.1-5.3+.274+3.8-20.3+.167+.295+8.0+44.1+25.0+27.6-18.5+15.8+13.3-5.0
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/5/2023.

Why is this the best route for Utah? Let’s bullet-point a few ideas. 

  • Understandably, I know plenty in Jazz Nation who aren’t in love with THT as their point guard. However, THT has his strengths as a point guard: attack the paint, facilitate, grab boards, get out in transition, stay in front of your man, etc. When you complement him with other playmakers, good things happen.
  • You’re also pairing THT with another crafty defender. Both Dunn and THT have fine Defensive Ratings, but great compared to the rest of the team. Both will create some havoc up top, then let the big boys clean it up. When there is a miss or a turnover, you can also turn to either of them to push the pace (overall, Jazz rank 13th in pace across the NBA). There has been plentiful calls for Dunn to get more minutes, or to play lead point. One way to solve the “who should get minutes” question: play both. The nearly 20 minutes of lineup data so far say it is effective. 
  • Similarly, when you pair THT (or Kessler) with shooters, good things happen. With flame-thrower JC out of flame to start the season, the Jazz have sorely needed additional offense behind all-star Markkanen. Inserting George has been a great solution. Per-36 numbers have him at 13 points, 5.5 assists on 59% shooting from the field and 33% from deep. Those are basically the same as what JC is currently averaging but with much higher efficiency. With George, he is a threat to shoot whenever he has the ball. He can dribble, he can drive, he can pull up, he can spot up. So, he helps your offense breathe, something that has been needed in these few short weeks with JC struggling to ignite. 
  • With Agbaji, you have to remember he played the last 20 games last season as a starter, doing a lot of things well. As a starter, he averaged 13.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists down the stretch. He perfectly fits the mold of an effective two-way player on the rise that brings the versatility and athleticism that is a complementary piece to other high-caliber players (like Markkanen). It is still my belief (hope) that Agbaji keeps getting his minutes increased and crosses over 20 a game so he can provide lineups with the utilities he offers.
  • Another thing we need to remember from last year was how great Kessler and Markkanen were for each other. Because of Kessler down low, it unlocked Markkanen to play out of his height. Typically, a guy his size would need to stay in the paint, clean up the rim, post up, and bang bodies for boards. Kessler can take that job, and willingly does, so now Markkanen can act like a shooting guard and run off screens for threes. You also get to see Kessler set those screens or clear the lane for when Markkanen is going full steam toward the hoop for a strong finish or an and-one. Even if Kessler’s individual stats are suffering, he is still working as the best frontcourt partner to Markkanen, who is continuing to play at an all-star level. 

A lot of basketball is left to play (duh, Steve) and these lineup combinations will continue to rise and fall as roles and rotations really get nailed down. From seven games, though, we at least have some notes to casually observe, and see if lineup data really told us anything.

PS – As I said, I’m biased towards George and Agbaji. I just really like them. While the data was talking about George or Agbaji inserted into those positive four-man pairings, the third-best lineup combination for the Jazz includes the duo together. Probably because of plays like this.  

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