Follow the Benjamins: Who Can Spend in 2021 Free Agency?

For Utah’s Ryan Smith and 29 other NBA club owners, it’s checkbook-opening season. (via ESPN.com)

As we do every year at around this point in the NBA calendar¹, it’s time to follow the money.

Free agency negotiations will (officially) begin on August 2, which means free agents like the Jazz’s Mike Conley will definitely be paying attention to which teams have spending power, whether in the form of cap space or significant exceptions.

Here’s our annual money tracker, and as we do with the companion piece on available free agents, we’ll keep updating this for at least the first couple of weeks of free agency as teams commit their dollars.

Last updated 8/11/21 4:04 p.m. MT. We’ll update this as free agency progresses and commitments are made.

One team left with spending power beyond the exceptions range

• Oklahoma City: Now that we know details on the Kemba Walker buyout, OKC could still technically get to around $40M in cap space, minus whichever non-guaranteed guys they want to hold onto. They currently have four NG guys totalling $9M in salary, and if they kept all four their max space would be $30M and change. But given that they’re a rebuilding team and not really a destination for star players at the momenbt, it might benefit them more to keep their ~$60M in TPEs and operate over the cap. They could still absorb salary from other teams and generate assets, and they’d still have their MLE if they wanted to spend it at some point. Either way, they can spend a lot of money still; it’s just a question of how.

Exceptions money: MLE remaining

• Cleveland: The Cavs agreed to a big new deal with Jarrett Allen, which clinches that they’ll be keeping his rights and staying close enough to the cap that they’ll operate with their exceptions: MLE, BAE and a couple of small TPEs.
• Houston: They’ll operate as an exceptions team, and they still have their MLE intact because they’ll use the remaining Victor Oladipo TPE to acquire Daniel Theis. That leaves them with the MLE, BAE and player rights — including David Nwaba, who committed to re-sign.
• Minnesota: They should be able to use both the MLE and the BAE and stay under the apron (they’re about $16-20M away, depending on decisions with end-of-roster guys), and they don’t have any high-dollar free agents pending to complicate the math.
• New Orleans: Garrett Temple’s (S&T) first-year salary still hasn’t been reported, so it’s hard to say exactly where they’re at. Josh Hart’s restricted free agency cap hold also complicates things, but as long as Temple’s number is in the mid 7-figure range, they likely still have something like $8-9M in cap room. OR they could choose to operate over the cap, in which case they’d still have the MLE left. EIther way, they have a roughly MLE-equivalent amount of space to spend.

Less than MLE, but at least TMLE (or equivalent) remaining

• Atlanta: John Collins’ cap hold — which they’ll need to sign the agreed 5/$125M deal with him — means the Hawks will operate over the cap. They have the MLE and BAE available, although $4M (probably part of the MLE, unless the amount was rounded up in the report) went to Gorgui Dieng. That would leave them with roughly the equivalent of the TMLE left: just under $6M, plus the BAE.
• Golden State: It sounds as though the Warriors’ 1-year signings (Iggy, Bjelly, Otto) are all at the minimum, which would mean they still have their TMLE to spend, along with minimum signings.
• Portland: The Blazers are right at the apron after Derrick Jones Jr. opted in and Norm Powell re-signed for over $20M/yr, so it’s the TMLE or nothing for them. 
• Sacramento: The Kings didn’t need to dip into the MLE to keep their own free agents like Moe Harkless, Terence Davis and Richaun Holmes. But then for some weird reason they gave Alex Len $4M, which required part of the MLE and leaves them with about $5.6M left. They also have the BAE and two small TPEs under $4M each. 
• Washington: When all the dust settled on the complicated set of transactions that landed the Wiz Spencer Dinwiddie (via S&T) and put Russell Westbrook in L.A., it turns out Washington is far enough from the apron that they can use some or all of the MLE. They used a piece of it to give rookie Isaiah Livers a 4-year deal, which means they’re now technically hard-capped. The could spend the other $8M or so of the MLE and still stay under the apron, but with 15 roster spots filled (if they keep non-guaranteed Daniel Gafford), my guess is they’ll stand pat and stay just under the tax.

Tiny exceptions (<TMLE) left

• Boston: The Cs used the Taxpayer MLE to sign Dennis Schroder, which pretty much indicates that they don’t plan to use the full MLE, even though they technically could without exceeding the apron. They technically could spend EITHER the rest of the MLE ($3.6M) OR the BAE ($3.7M), but not both. And at this point they have 15 guaranteed contracts, so it’s likely they’re done. They also have some 7-figure TPEs left.
• Chicago: Chicago acquired Lonzo Ball and later DeMar DeRozan via S&T, and then committed their MLE to Alex Caruso. They do have the BAE left (along with Lauri Markkanen’s rights), although they are hard-capped and must stay below $143M.
• Denver: The Nuggets were in exceptions territory, and just re-signed Will Barton and JaMychal Green. They used their BAE in 2020, so it will just be the MLE and minimum deals — plus a $9.5M TPE and a couple of tiny ones. They just committed part of the MLE to Jeff Green, so they probably have something like $4-5M left — or not, if they plan to use the TMLE to avoid the hard cap.
• Detroit: The Pistons spent their cap space and then, as far as I can tell, used the Room MLE to sign Cory Joseph, whom they had previously waived. That would mean they’re just about done beyond minimum signings, although they still have Hamidou Diallo’s and Frank Jackson’s RFA rights intact. 
• Memphis: The Grizz should still have the Room MLE left after spending their cap space in trades.
• Miami: Miami has about $2.6M left of the MLE, as well as the BAE, but it’s not clear whether they’ll use either, because the Kyle Lowry S&T has them hard-capped and rather close to the apron. 
• New York: The Knicks scoring Kemba Walker off his buyout at just $8M annually is a nice get. They also already committed to keep Derrick Rose, Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel, which requires about $23M in cap holds to retain their rights. They agreed to sign Evan Fournier at $20M+, and the contract they gave second-round rookie Miles McBride also required a bit of cap space. So they’re functionally out of cap room, maybe a million or so left, depending on deal structures. Then they’ll have the Room MLE if they want to use it.
• Orlando: Orlando has <$5M of its TPE left after using some to sign Robin Lopez. They still have the BAE, plus a rather large TPE from when they moved Evan Fournier ($17.2M), and a couple of smaller ones.
• Philadelphia: The Sixers used part of their MLE/TMLE on Georges Niang. But with $140M or so in guaranteed salary, they really can’t use much more. They can’t use the remaining $6.3M of the non-tax MLE because doing so would take them over the apron; that leaves them with calling Niang a Taxpayer MLE signing, but then they’d have less than $3M left. They also may not want to limit what they could do in a Ben Simmons trade scenario, so they may try to avoid triggering that hard cap either way. They also have an $8.2M TPE.
• Phoenix: Chris Paul’s and Cameron Payne’s agreements to return put Phoenix back over the cap and leaves them with exceptions. They spent a reported $5M on JaVale McGee, so they probably only have $5M or so of the MLE left, plus the BAE.
• San Antonio: The Spurs used their cap space to commit $24-25M to Doug McDermott and Zach Collins, and then taking back Thaddeus Young and Al-Farouq Aminu (a combined $24.4M) in the DeRozan S&T would have used up just about everything they had left. They should still have the Room MLE, unless they needed that for Bryn Forbes (terms unknown).\
• Toronto: Toronto opted to keep their player rights and non-guaranteed guys, which meant they were an exceptions team this year, even though they could have technically carved out nominal cap room. They used most of the MLE to retain Khem Birch (they only had “non-Bird” rights to sign him), and once the tiny cap holds of guys like Gary Trent Jr. are replaced by their new contracts, they’re actually only a few million away from the hard cap they triggered with the Birch signing. About the maximum they could spend is the remaining MLE amount OR the BAE, but not both.

Down to minimums

• Brooklyn: The Nets are a tax team and just used their TMLE to sign Patty Mills. They are down to just minimum contracts.
• Charlotte: Charlotte reportedly committed most (if not all) of its remaining cap space to Kelly Oubre Jr., then the Room MLE to Ish Smith. That means they are basically done spending beyond the minimum.
• Dallas: It looks like the Mavs chose to stay over the cap, because the reported Reggie Bullock deal (3/$30.5) sounds like an MLE signing. Sterling Brown appears to have taken most or all of the BAE, so Dallas is mostly done with non-minimum signings, although they still have a $10.6M TPE they got from dealing Josh Richardson.
• Indiana: The Pacers are over the cap, and TJ McConnell’s new deal puts them less than $10M from the apron. Then they signed Torrey Craig for around $5M, which likely means they have now committed their taxpayer MLE (using the full MLE would have put them right at the hard cap). So they might be mostly done spending, aside from negotiating with their own free agents and adding guys at the minimum.
• L.A. Clippers: The Clippers used most of the TMLE to sign Justise Winslow, and the rest to sign Brandon Boston and Jason Preston to longer deals than the minimum exception allows. So their TMLE is spent. Their other signings (Reggie Jackson, Nic Batum, Kawhi Leonard, etc.) appear to have all been completed using free agent rights.
• L.A. Lakers: After acquiring Russell Westbrook, the Lakers were right back to being a cap/tax team. They just used most or all of the TMLE on Kendrick Nunn, and they’ve been handing out 1-year minimum contracts like candy: Carmelo Anthony, Malik Monk, Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, etc.
• Milwaukee: The Bucks used something around $4M of the TMLE for George Hill, and another $925K for their second-round pick. So they are basically down to minimums. They also have two small TPEs.
• Utah: Conley’s return to the Jazz solidifies their status as a tax team, and then they committed the TMLE to Rudy Gay. So Utah has minimums left. They also have TPEs, the largest of which they just created in the Derrick Favors deal. But it’s unlikely they use them since the whole point there was to avoid a massive tax bill.

The Conley Spin

Update: Conley is back with the Jazz! For more updates regarding various free agents, click here.

So who are the main threats where Conley is concerned?

New York, San Antonio and Oklahoma City can offer something in the same range the Jazz are reportedly preparing to offer. But can they offer Mike the same kind of competitive situation?

The Knicks can maybe offer something close. They were a No. 4 seed last season and figure to bring back most of their core, including All-Star Julius Randle. Of the major cap space teams, they’re the closest to being able to call themselves a contender, but even a Conley addition probably doesn’t move them into the East’s top tier. The Spurs just missed the playoffs and the Thunder will be in rebuilding mode.

Then there are the seven teams who could create room for an 8-figure offer to Conley, but only with sacrifices elsewhere on the roster. Are the Bulls contenders if they add Conley but lose all of Markkanen, Satoransky and Young? What about New Orleans without Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart? Phoenix if the replace Chris Paul with Conley? Toronto is entering a rebuild, and Charlotte can only get to the low teens in cap space.

The teams to watch in this group are probably Dallas and Miami. With superstar Luka Doncic, the Mavs can likely still be competitive even if Hardaway gets away, and the Heat could still get into Mike’s price range by letting Dragic and Iguodala walk, but keeping the Nunn/Robinson duo. Both teams could theoretically make Conley a $20M-plus offer and promise him a more-or-less competitive situation.

The only other thing to watch is whether any of the full MLE teams offer Conley enough of an upgrade in competitiveness that he’d take a huge discount. I don’t see it. Philly could waive Hill and replace him with Conley to improve their chances, but they currently have bigger fish to fry with the Ben Simmons question looming. Denver is the only other MLE team that finished anywhere near Utah’s record, and they have Jamal Murray (eventually) returning from injury. Atlanta made the Conference Finals, perhaps ahead of schedule, but they have Trae Young so they likely won’t be looking for a starting-caliber PG with their MLE. Boston is at least a fringe contender who needs a point guard, but is a $9.6M offer from the .500 Celtics really better from something in the $25M range from No. 1 Utah?

Bottom line: the Jazz have the advantage here. They need to show Conley the love and make their best pitch. If they make him feel wanted and present him with a respectable offer, nobody can offer the combination of money and competitiveness that Utah can.