Freelance Friday: Why Conley’s First Impression Shouldn’t Be the One You Remember Him By

Jazz fans are wondering which Mike Conley they’ll get when the guard is re-incorporated in the Jazz lineup this weekend. But as Jonathan Knoder writes, first impressions can be deceiving. (Noah Graham via espn.com)

We’re bringing back a tradition starting by erstwhile managing editor Andy Larsen, and giving a voice to fans and readers who want to try writing on our site, or who have something to say. Freelance Fridays are back! Have an idea of something you want to write about? Track down @danclayt0n (that’s a zero there) on Twitter, or send a private message to Salt City Hoops on Facebook.

Written by Jonathan Knoder

The first impression is the lasting one. No statement rings truer for the Utah Jazz’s newly acquired star, Mike Conley. The 32-year-old star’s first impression on Jazz fans was an ugly one — really there is no other way to describe it. Conley’s first night in a Jazz uniform ended with a 1-for-16 shooting performance from the field and 0-for-6 from three. There are plenty of adjectives to describe his Utah debut, but we’ll stick with ugly.

Conley had an up-and-down start to the season, and since then has missed 19 games due to hamstring issues. Since he first went down¹, the Jazz have peeled off a record of 16–4.

This, combined with Conley’s age and salary, all culminates in a perfect storm of confusion for the Utah Jazz fan base. There is a lot of chatter on Jazz Twitter surrounding Conley’s name, specifically whether the Jazz are better without him, some even going so far as to wonder aloud whether the Jazz should bring him off the bench when he returns or even trade him. 

The topic is a timely one: Conley has been upgraded to probable for Saturday’s home game against Sacramento.

In times like these, some perspective is needed. Conley’s salary, his performance, and the Jazz record tend to be merged items when displaying Conley’s ineffectiveness as a Jazz man. Instead, when you separate the three pieces and add some perspective to each individually, Conley’s Jazz tenure paints a much different picture.

The Contract in Perspective

The aforementioned performance comes from a player who makes $32.5 million this year with a player option² next year worth $34.5 million. But to compare Conley to other players in this price range is actually misleading.

Conley’s contract is a product of consistent productivity on the court — and amazing timing. The NBA’s salary cap spiked in the summer of 2016, creating a free agency frenzy that got a lot of players huge paydays that offseason. Conley was coming off a season where he had played 56 games, averaged only 42% from the field and 36% from three. Omitting his rookie season, that’s tied for his second worst season from three, yet he still averaged his standard 15 points, 5.5 assists and 1.2 steals per game seen throughout his career. So why was Conley offered such a massive deal with average-ish numbers?

Conley was one of three point guards considered in the top tier of that free agency that year. The other two? Jeremy Lin and Rajon Rondo. Yuck.

Memphis wanted to keep their point guard and captain of the Grit-and-Grind Grizzlies, and considering Lin and Rondo were the other picks of the litter, it makes sense that Conley got the massive deal. Also worth mentioning, players like Chandler Parsons, Nicolas Batum and Harrison Barnes are currently on massive deals from that same free agency period. Yuck doesn’t quite cut it, does it?

If you are Conley, of course you sign the contract to be the highest paid player in the league. Nothing wrong with that. But seeing 32.5 million next to 13ppg a game, it’s understandable why Jazz fans are upset. But when you put this current season and a really, really horrible first impression in perspective, his performance in Utah isn’t as bad as it seems.

Conley’s Performance in Perspective

In Conley’s first four games as a Jazz man he went 9-for-45 from the field and 3-for-20 from 3. Woof. Conley finally broke out of that slump against the Los Angeles Clippers — albeit without superstars Kawhi Leonard or Paul George — with an 11-of-17 shooting night and 5-for-8 from deep.

If you erase Conley’s first game as a Jazz man from the record books (it’s been reported to death how much of an adjustment Conley’s first game was compared to the rest of his career), and combine his shooting statistics, he is still shooting a career low from two (and the same as his 2017-2018 season when he only played twelve games) but he would also be shooting his [tied for] 3rd best season ever from 3 at 38%, and right around his career average mark. When Conley comes back, they are adding another above average 3-point shooter to a roster that is already elite from that distance.

It’s also easy to compare this year’s Conley to the version of the guard who averaged 21.1 points during the 2018-19 season, which is also misleading. He was part of an awful team that was selling every stitch of offense that was around him for a rebuild. He was the only offensive weapon and needed to display his offensive prowess. He’ll never get the ball enough in the Jazz offense to get back to that point, and that’s fine, the Jazz don’t need that from him. Jazz would be happy with that stat line the year that got him paid. And currently, he’s only 1.3 points, and 0.9 assists, and one introductory game away from his career numbers.

Jazz Performance Since Conley Injury in Perspective

If Conley indeed returns on Saturday night, he will have missed 19 games this season, and most of a 20th. As mentioned above, Jazz are 16-4 over that stretch, with home losses to the LA Lakers and OKC, plus road defeats in Miami and New Orleans — all quality teams. Their wins have mostly come against the lower tier in the NBA, with exception of a win against the Clippers. You could argue what tier Portland is in, but 15 of their 16 wins since Conley’s injury have come again against teams the currently own a losing record.

In this time the Jazz also outright released their biggest net negative player in Jeff Green, traded Dante Exum, who no longer was sniffing playing time, and traded for Jordan Clarkson, who can create his own shot — something the Jazz sorely needed on the bench with Conley out.

To review, everything that has happened since Conley’s injury:

• Jazz played softest stretch of schedule
• Addition by subtraction; releasing Jeff Green
• Adding offensive fire power by trading Exum for Clarkson

All of Jazz universe can agree that the fan base would love to see Conley take fewer floaters, but it is also universal basketball knowledge that adding a 38% 3-point shooter to the roster is also a good thing as well.

The Jazz Streak in Perspective

The Jazz running off a win streak during this stretch of the season is simply what they do. The last two years, the Jazz had similar win streaks. In early 2017 (February, to be exact), they did it against the bottom half of Western Conference teams and a smattering of lowly eastern squads. In 2018, almost around the exact same time as this current win streak, the Jazz caught fire in the midst of the softest part of the schedule.

Did you know that Joe Ingles and Rudy Gobert are the last two players remaining from Quin Snyder’s first year? Conley wasn’t the only Jazz player out of sorts to start the year, yet they still had a better start than the two previous seasons, but that gets lost because unlike years past, they win close, and when they were losing, they were losing big. But that was much more a bench problem than a starting five problem, which has since been addressed.

This team has had the luxury of learning how to play with one another against a soft schedule. Do you think the Jazz would have lost any of those 13 wins against subpar competition had Conley been available? (It’s worth noting that the Jazz started Ingles over O’Neale during the one game Conley did play before re-aggravating his hamstring).

It’s worth wondering: if you swapped his first game in a Jazz uniform (he’s a bum!), with his fifth game (Jazz are going to the Finals!), or erased his first game entirely, would that change fans’ overall perception of him in Utah?

The Jazz are a better team now than they were when Conley was healthy, and that has nothing to do with him being unavailable. Conley has a first impression problem, and Jazz nation should let go of their recency bias. He’ll be returning with a better team around him and Jazz fans should be pumped when Conley comes back for a tough second half they’ll surely need him for.