Group Predictions: Scoring, Trades & Bridging to the Future

Will one of these two guards be Utah’s second option? (via utahjazz.com)

Here we go.

As the Jazz prepare to tip off their season, five Salt City Hoops writers tackle a unique set of predictions. It seems fairly obvious who the Jazz’s top scorer will be, but who will be the #2 threat? And how many current Jazzmen will still be a part of the next deep playoff run? For various viewpoints on those and other questions, read on…

Who will be the Jazz’s SECOND leading scorer in ’23-24? 

Clark Schmutz: Jordan Clarkson, at 22.4 ppg.

Steve Godfrey: Last year it was JC as the clear #2 scorer behind Markkanen. After JC’s 20.8 ppg, there was quite a drop until you got to third place with Collin Sexton at 14.3. It’s not a sexy pick, but I’m going to go with something similar. The Finnisher and the Flamethrower will lead the way, we’ll see a drop and then a cluster will hover together in the 10-14 ppg range (because I think depth will be Utah’s superpower this year).

Mark Russell Pereira: This question is fun because it immediately makes you think of the impressive variety of sources of buckets for the Jazz, but at the end of the day it very clearly will be Clarkson. After years of rightfully polarizing play, the longest-tenured Jazzman has become quite overshadowed in light of all the shiny new toys. Clarkson still has extremely reliable scoring juice and will have lots of the offense run through them. And on a team bereft of passing, Utah will resort to plenty of Clarkson hero ball (which, frankly, will be sorely needed too much).

John Keeffer: Clarkson averaged 20 points per game last season, and I don’t envision anyone stepping in and taking his role as the second option to Markkanen on this team. When the Jazz need an isolation bucket, JC is still the go to option to create his own shot.

Dan Clayton: Contrarian take here: I actually think there’s a solid chance it’s Collin Sexton. Clarkson has evolved impressively over his Jazz career, but John Collins’ arrival probably evens things out a bit behind Markkanen, especially within the starting group. Meanwhile, Sexton will be a designated defense-buster off the bench. His per-36 average last year (21.5) was actually right in line with his career figure (21.8) so I think as his minutes normalize he could easily jump. And while Clarkson’s raw numbers will likely be affected by some amount of democratization in the first unit, Sexton will play alongside sometimes-reluctant shooters like Kris Dunn, Ochai Agbaji, Kelly Olynyk and whichever of Simone Fontecchio/Luka Samanic finds himself in the 10th man role most often. That sounds like a recipe for a whole lot of Sexton.

Who’s the player we’ll think most differently about in six months?

Clark: Kris Dunn.

Steve: I’m really excited about Agbaji. He works hard, plays and practices the right way, is saying all my favorite buzzwords, too. The dude wants to be the team leader this year, something I can honestly see emerging from him. He reminds me of Royce O’Neale, someone who will just do their job, especially on dirty work and defense, and glue any units together.

Mark: Sexton. I feel pretty alone on an island with my belief in Sexton as a burgeoning playmaker. Smart people have rightfully pointed out Sexton’s legitimate success as a scoring on-ball guy while noting his deficiencies as a passer, but I see more. Learning to play NBA point guard is so difficult. The top-tier guys already have the skill from day one, but lots of good point guards needed years of digestion of developmental minutes to exhibit real showrunning ability. Sexton can create so much space off the dribble, and learning real passing from those advantages will be easier. This will also be Sexton’s first fully-healthy season with the Jazz, and his first season /ever/ playing for a not-garbage team. His very high “give-a-shit” level matters, too.

All evidence points otherwise, but we’re all allowed idiosyncratic thoughts on things from time to time. This one is mine: Collin Sexton will be a 2023-24 success story for the Jazz.

John: Collins. Whether for the better or worse though? Either he’ll jump back closer to where he was performing three season ago, or maybe we’ll learn why the Hawks were trying to consitently trade him over the last few years.

Dan: Since Steve (Agbaji) and Mark (Sexton) already stole my pet answers here, I’ll use this as an opportunity to say I’m not at all worried about Taylor Hendricks looking overwhelming in the preseason. Agbaji looked terrified for a couple of months too, and now he’s being describe as the Jazz’s third “untouchable” player. It’s kind of like people say about the various developmental milestones in toddlers: kids and NBA teenagers just figure things out at their own pace. I think by April, we’ll have seen enough progress to collectively chill out about all the arbitrary prerequisites and checkpoints people are throwing out. (Yes, even if he plays in the G League.)

*If* the Jazz make an in-season trade, it will be something like…

Clark: Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker for Gordon Hayward.

Steve: It has to involve the guards. With playing time needed for Sexton, THT and Dunn, it doesn’t seem like there is enough pie at the table. I can also foresee Keyonte George pulling up a chair. If he develops and is ready that quickly, the Jazz will be shopping some guards elsewhere. Did I answer the question? I don’t know, but I’ll also say this: I don’t think the big trade with all the picks and assets happens in-season this year.

Mark: Olynyk to a contender for some tiny, tiny draft pick is very likely. Utah probably doesn’t have a lot of interest in re-signing Olynyk, 33, after his contract expires next summer. With Utah’s addition of Collins’ lengthy contract and the drafting of Hendricks, they are better suited to use their money and roster spot on a different position going forward.

Olynyk is still a useful player that would solve a lot of problems for several teams’ bench units, and is flexible enough to play two or 20 minutes from night to night. Even if Utah surpasses my expectations and is a playoff team, they’d probably still be wise to see what offers are out there at the trade deadline. I can see Utah’s [probable] refusal to add more long-term money being a barrier to such a deal, though.

John: Sexton or Olynyk and a future 2nd round pick, for a future lightly protected 1st round pick.

Dan: Everyone talks about the need for a “consolidation” trade, but I don’t think the Jazz are at that point yet. When you’re in the early phases of a rebuild without a clear megastar, having multiple interesting guys at a given position isn’t a problem that needs to be solved. I think it’s more likely they go the other way: trading a veteran for a flyer on a young guy who hasn’t really panned out but has maybe just been in the wrong situation.

The Jazz will finish __ in the West.

Clark: 7th.

Steve: Best case scenario, they get slot #9. The West is just simply loaded. I can’t talk myself into much else, like overcoming many of the teams in the standings, but I can see them getting a play-in spot and make their noise that way.

Mark: 14th. The Rockets are going to be competitive, and the Spurs will have a really good defense to leapfrog the Jazz. Portland, while frisky, just runs out of talent early enough to remain solidly 15th. Utah has incentive to (finally) convey their top-10 protected first round pick to Oklahoma City, but they won’t come close. Unlike last year, they’ll sputter out of the gate and never really recover on their way to 31 wins.

John: 11th. The West is just loaded. I expect a similar season to last year, with the Jazz being a competitive team, but maybe semi-tanking near the end so they can be in line to keep their Top-10 protected pick from going to OKC.

Dan: I actually don’t think it would take that much out-of-the-ordinary stuff for the Jazz to be 6th-9th level competitive: Collins would have to bounce back, Sexton would need to maintain X% of his efficiency while playing more, and they’ll need some amount of PG steadiness from any of George/Dunn/THT. OK, now that I say that out loud, that *is* a lot of stuff. Which is why the safer bet is 10th-13th.

How many current Jazzmen will be on the next Utah squad to reach at least the conference semis?

Clark: Seven: Markkanen, George, Hendricks, Walker Kessler, Brice Sensabaugh, Clarkson, Abagji.

Steve: It’s a cop-out, but I’ll keep it simple: at least one.

Mark: One. A 39-year-old Clarkson will be playing sparingly off the bench but will still be on the team because of his immaculate vibes that Ryan Smith is more than happy to keep paying to stick around Utah.

John: Four: Lauri, Kessler, Keyonte and JC.

Dan: Maybe more than we think. When the Jazz broke through to the second round in 2017, the Jazz tenure of their 10 highest playoff minute-getters were 7, 1, 3, 1, 4, 3, 7, 1, 1 and 3. The current Jazz also have five guys entering year one or two of a rookie scale contract, meaning they control the futures of a whole lot of dudes. On top of that group, Collins, Clarkson and Sexton are all under contract for three more years, and I bet Markkanen gets extended too. That’s a lot of guys who have at least a medium-term future in Utah, barring trades. So I’ll say at least five make it to the second round with the Jazz at some point.