Group Think: What Will the Jazz Draft Look Like?

One way or another, the Utah Jazz transaction ledger is getting some entries this week.

The NBA’s collective eyes are focused on Barclays Center, where the NBA draft will tip off at 8:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday night. As basketball fans ourselves, our eyes are pointed that direction as well, anticipating the Utah Jazz making two first round selections, as well as a third pick early in the second round when the draft continues on Thursday afternoon.

To chat about the draft, we gathered a few the usual suspects for this group Q&A, plus a guest, Dray Mottishaw, a Jazz fan who follows the draft process very closely.

Do you favor the Jazz drafting a high upside or high floor prospect at #10? 

David Smith: Assuming this draft is as flat as many have said, I lean toward going with a high upside player at #10. Even if it was not flat, that would still be my preference. Sometimes teams simply need to shoot for the stars with their picks, taking a risk that could pay off down the line. It would be wise for the Jazz to go that direction this draft.

Dray Mottishaw: Typically I would say high upside/ceiling and go boom or bust, but the ceilings this year are fairly low for most prospects. Because of that I am going high floor, with a preference for NBA-ready players this year, with only a few exceptions of ceiling.

Mark Russell Pereira: The goal should just always be drafting the best talent on the board, regardless of fit. If the Jazz feel like the best player available is a center, then they should draft that player without regard to having Walker Kessler already on the roster. After that, I am truly ambivalent on high upside versus high floor. What I hate the most, in either context, are players with failing grades in multiple areas of skill or athleticism, and teams are just praying that something magic happens. One or even two areas of F-level ability? Fine, let’s play and figure it out. But we’ve seen plenty of high upside dudes who never had a prayer at learning to, dribble, shoot, OR defend at an NBA level and it was immediately wasteful to the team. We’ve also seen high floor prospects who were so horribly deficient in multiple key facets that their purported NBA-tier usefulness in one or two skills was never actually useful because they were necessarily nailed to the bench. Get dudes who have a viable path to seeing the floor.

Riley Gisseman: I would lean towards high upside with the more lengthy rebuild the Jazz seem to be heading towards, but really I’d want to add more context. I think players often fall due to a lack of perceived upside due to age, height, or athleticism concerns. I would argue that each of these have counter-examples that show they aren’t foolproof – Jimmy Butler, Stephen Curry, and Nikola Jokic being the most egregious. In addition, these players often have more-sure floors than other picks. Regardless, picking this year’s Doug McDermott wouldn’t be giving Utah the path to stardom that you’d really like to see while Utah attempts to springboard themselves back into contention.

Clark Schmutz: High upside.

Who do you foresee on the board at #10, and who will Utah select?

Riley: Justin Zanik mentioned how difficult this draft is to project, and I tend to agree. I still think it’s likely that at least one of Nikola Topic, Devin Carter, and Tidjane Salaun will be available at #10, and I would take them in that order. Topic is quite a thrilling playmaker, and has had a ton of success reaching and finishing at the rim against grown men in Europe. His primary concerns are his injury – which seems to be less concerning for Jazz fans – and his three point shot, which fans are much more concerned about. Statistically, though, Topic has shot a higher percentage (30.8%) than both of these players off the dribble (28.1% for Carter, 21.1% for Salaun), and he also tied Carter for highest percentage (36%) in catch and shoot situations.

Dray: Ron Holland, Dalton Knecht, Devin Carter, and Zach Edey. I believe the Jazz would select Ron Holland out of that bunch.

Mark: At least two of Ron Holland, Nikola Topic, and Cody Williams will be available. Topic and Williams seem like the choicest fits with reported links to Utah. Devin Carter and Jared McCain have also worked out for the Jazz, and bring some real skill that the Jazz may prefer to reach for at #10 compared to their commonly-projected mock draft slots.

Clark: Ron Holland, Nikola Topic and Devin Carter. I think the Jazz take Carter.

David: This draft is as unpredictable as any in my lifetime, so anything could happen. Someone or a few someones will fall. Three guys I could see being available at #10 at Nikola Topic, Ron Holland, and Rob Dillingham. If those were the choices, I see Utah nabbing Topic. He’s a top-three talent whose injury may enable him to be an eventual steal for the Jazz.

How many draft picks do you anticipate the Jazz making with the intention of keeping the player?

Mark: Not to reject the premise of the question too much, but shuffling around their #29 and #32 picks is exceedingly dependent on a lot of stuff that is damn near impossible to know or even get a faint read on. Is Utah infatuated with certain mid-round talents for which they’re willing to move up? Is there a trade for a veteran being discussed? Do OTHER teams have big feelings about players in the late first round range that they’re willing to give Utah substantial future assets to get them to move? I’d like to also note that the #32 pick could be very valuable to any of the five or six teams slated to be above the second apron, due to the new second-round pick exception that serves as a lifeline to those teams who are forbidden from doing a number of other moves. My hope is that Utah just makes the picks because new players are cool and exciting.

Dray: I believe two picks will be made, but I wouldn’t rule out using all three. I think the Jazz use picks #10 and #29, then trade out of pick #32. They will have many offers for it during the two-day draft.

Clark: The Jazz will draft at #10 and #21.

David: It feels unlikely that the Jazz will keep all three picks. There are so many rumors about Utah trying to package picks to move up or out. Too much smoke to ignore. I see them indeed making at least one trade, and two draft selections will be bound for Salt Lake City.

Riley: I think that it’s most likely that the Jazz keep all three picks with the intention of turning one around in a trade later in the offseason. I don’t think the Jazz will move their 10th pick, but one of #29 and #32 is likely to be gone at some point.

Who do you like in the #29 through #32 range?

Riley: Cam Christie is my favorite target for the Jazz at the turn of the draft, without a close second. He was an elite shooter who still needs to fill out his frame, and has a NBA brother, which has been shown to be a positive indicator for out-performing draft expectation. He’s been an absolute flamethrower off the dribble (39.4%), and in catch and shoot (39.6%), while throwing up more attempts than most players in the draft. Players who can shoot in the NBA nearly always become valuable role players, and he’s young enough to develop a significant skillset around his shooting as well.

Clark: Baylor Scheiermann with a bullet. Then Bub Carrington. McCullers if Scheiermann isn’t available.

David: There is value to be found in the late first and early second-round. Some of my favorites in that realm are Pacome Dadiet, Baylor Scheierman and Tyler Kolek.

Dray: If available, Jaylon Tyson, Ryan Dunn, Terrence Shannon Jr, Harrison Ingram, and Oso Ighodaro.

Mark: I’ve always been intrigued by guys who have experience in international professional leagues. Pacome Diadet and Bobi Klintman would be pretty exciting picks. Melvin Ajinca also feels quite underrated to me based on his overall, well-rounded skillset and size, but he probably just ends up as just A Regular Guy rather than some sort of impact player.

Looking ahead, what current Jazz player do you think might be traded in the draft process this week?

David: Walker Kessler was not drafted by Danny Ainge, Justin Zanik and company. While they value him, I could see him being moved as part of a package to move up in the draft. This effectively would allow Utah to reset a rookie deal with a different player. Jordan Clarkson is another good candidate. I don’t see him returning to the Jazz next season.

Dray: If I had to choose a guy it would probably be Jordan Clarkson.

Mark: Clarkson seems like a lock to be traded once his salary reduces to $14 million from $23.5 million once the new league year turns over.

Riley: I think Collin Sexton is most likely to be moved during draft week. With trade rumors surrounding Mikal Bridges (NOTE: Bridges will be traded to the New York Knicks, per reports) and Zach LaVine, Utah would have to match salary and could reduce the amount of picks necessary with a positive young player like Sexton. Additionally, with the Lakers reportedly interested, there seems to be a heavy layer of smoke surrounding Sexton’s future in Utah.

Clark: I think Sexton or John Collins get dealt this offseason.