How Can the Jazz Add a Superstar?

The Jazz have a solid foundation for their rebuild in Markkanen. (Jeff Swinger via utahjazz.com)

As far as rebuilds go, Utah’s is off to a smooth start. A half season after trading a pair of 3-time All-Stars, Utah’s in a good position with a number of key pieces already in place:

• A war chest of 14 first-round picks (15 if the pick owed to OKC does not convey).
• A young All-Star caliber player in Lauri Markkanen. The Finnisher appears to have the perfect skillset as a number two on title-contending team. That profile is similar to Klay Thompson: an efficient, multi-faceted scorer, who can also defend. Markkanen has been a revelation, whose 24.5 PPG and 61.5 eFG% have only been matched by Steph Curry, Zion Williamson, and Nikola Jokic.
• An impressive rookie coach in Will Hardy, who has put players in positions to succeed and been the foundation for good vibes this season. Hardy seems to have a rare combination of in-game tactics and off-the-court personality management.
• The steal of the draft in Walker Kessler. Kessler has shown elite rim protection and offensive efficiency we haven’t seen since… well, Rudy Gobert. Kessler’s 71.9 eFG% and 8.4 BLK% in 19.5 MPG puts him in rare company — the rarest, actually. No player has matched those figures over a full season. We’ll see how Kessler adjusts against full-time starters, but early returns are promising.
• Lottery rookie Ochai Agbaji. who started slow but has shown promising signs in recent games. And his productivity goes beyond his normalized shooting stats. Every team in the league needs athletic wings who can shoot and defend.
• A number of useful veterans on good contracts who could be traded for younger players and assets, or who could be a part of the next contending team.

The one piece Utah will need to truly contend is a capital-S Superstar. A top-10 player in the league. All of the last 20 NBA champions had that type of megastar:

These teams were all led by generational players. In fact, the only “best players” on these championship-winners that aren’t in the NBA’s 75th anniversary team are Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace. Many of these players are among the top-25.

Let’s look how these players were acquired:

Trading for a “best player on a championship team” is rare. LeBron is the only example in the last two decades who led a team to a ring as the team’s undisputed best player after signing as a free agent. Utah is not Los Angeles or Miami, and so relying on this route is not prudent. That doesn’t mean they can’t lure a solid contributor like Bojan Bogdanovic when they’re ready. But that’s a few steps away.

The Jazz do have the assets needed to trade for such a player. But looking at recent history, these opportunities are incredibly rare. Notably, Danny Ainge was responsible for one of these moves when Boston acquired Kevin Garnett. Superstars do switch teams more often in the current NBA climate, and there always seems to be a disgruntled player on the horizon. Maybe something happens here, but again, I wouldn’t anchor my strategy to this.

The most common method for acquiring a “best player on a championship team” is through the draft. The heartening fact is that there’s some draft position diversity in the list above — a lottery win is not a requirement. Getting such a player is longshot, no matter the method. But with at least fourteen first-round picks, the Jazz can take a lot of shots. Even if they don’t get a number one overall pick, can they find a Steph Curry later in the lottery or a Giannis Antetokounmpo in the mid first round?

The upcoming draft is particularly tantalizing, with Victor Wembanyama looking like the closest chance at becoming one of those generational players. That said, even the worst team in the NBA this season will only bank a 14% at drafting Wembanyama, but those odds are still promising compared to the likelihood of finding a Dirk Nowitizki with a No. 9 pick or a Kobe Bryant at No. 13.

Let’s say for the sake of argument that the Jazz end up with the 6th worst record this season (which would take some doing). That gives them a 9% chance at Victor. Then let’s say the remaining thirteen first-round picks have an average draft position of twenty. Do those combined thirteen picks have a better than 9% chance at yielding a single generational superstar?

This year’s draft depth changes the equation some. I’m no draft expert, but people smarter than me say that Scoot Henderson would be a consensus number one in other recent drafts. With a 6th worst record, the Jazz would have a combined 18% chance of getting either Scoot or Victor. In their current position outside the lottery, their chance is zero, and even if they lost in the play-in, their combined chance is still only 1%. Even without lottery luck, the chance of drafting a future star 6th is obviously a lot higher than picking 14th.

Those dueling odds hang over the Jazz’s decision-making process as the trade deadline approaches. It wouldn’t take too much effort to maximize their draft position, and thus maximize their best opportunity at a capital-S Superstar. Luckily they don’t need to tear the team apart to do so. They have a star in Markkanen, a rock-solid coach in Hardy, and a pair of promising rookies. Trading some of the veterans for additional building blocks could be a better long-term strategy than squeezing every possible win out of this group. This team has proved fun and tough, and that can still be the case for the rest of the season, even with fewer wins.

Alternatively, this team could stand pat this season. They shouldn’t feel desperation to make poor trades just to optimize draft position. With an easier schedule coming up, there’s a scenario where the Jazz keep the current team together and make a run at the playoffs. While this path would lessen their chances of getting a Superstar, it would be a ton of fun to watch, which is sort of the point of following a sports team, right? Optimizing odds is not the be-all and end-all of this season. That said, it’s nice to have options, and the Jazz certainly have some interesting choices to make before the trade deadline.