How did the trade deadline affect Utah’s draft position?

How good with the Will Hardy-led Jazz be after trading veterans? (Rick Egan, The Salt Lake Tribune)

After a seismic offseason, the Jazz made another team-shaking move. On Wednesady, they traded Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and two second-round picks in exchange for Russell Westbrook, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Damian Jones and the Lakers’ 2027 first-round pick (top-4 protected). 

There’s a lot to sort through, but the Jazz essentially consolidated a collection of players that weren’t in their long-term plans for a single blue chip asset. One can quibble over whether the Jazz could’ve gained more picks by doling out players separately, but those picks would’ve likely been attached to players with long-term contracts. Instead, this trade left them with a massive amount of cap space next season and clean books the following years.

Another big factor in the trade is its affect on this season’s draft pick. Heading into Friday’s game in Toronto, the Jazz have the 12th worst record, giving them a 4.6% chance of moving up to a top-4 selection. Having offloaded multiple rotation-caliber veterans, they could compete for the 6th worst record, giving them a 37.2% change at a top-4 selection.

The Jazz own two other first-round picks this year. Minnesota is currently in playoff position, so the 2023 pick they owe the Jazz is currently outside the lottery. Trading D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley may give them a boost, especially given Conley’s chemistry with Rudy Gobert. If the Timberwolves get a little better this season it’s not that big of a deal — the difference between the 16th pick and the 20th pick in not as stark as the difference between a mid-lottery pick and the Jazz’s current 12th spot. And the Wolves will have stiff competition among teams above them in the standings. The Mavericks and Suns traded for all-league talents, and the LA teams made moves to improve.

The Jazz also own the worst pick among the Houston, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia group. Brooklyn stands to drop down the standings after giving up two stars, but that won’t matter so long as Philly stays strong. The Sixers are currently 4th best in the league (meaning the 27th pick), and made marginal moves that should keep them competitive. Maybe the revamped Mavericks or Suns pass them, but it’s likely Philly’s pick remains a late selection in the first-round.

So Utah’s own 2023 pick has the biggest variability. Let’s look at the state of the bottom-dwellers.

Current lottery teams (starting with the worst record):

1. Houston: They should stay bottom-4.
2. Detroit: They should stay bottom-4.
3. San Antonio: They should stay bottom-4.
4. Charlotte: They should stay bottom-4.
5. Orlando: The Magic traded Mo Bambo for Patrick Beverley, who may be bought out. They’re an interesting case in the lottery race — they don’t have the quite the head start as the four teams mentioned previously, but they should remain bad. The Jazz would have to cover a lot of ground to steal the 5th best lottery odds, but it’s possible.
6. Indiana: The Pacers absorbed some salary, but made no significant moves. The biggest factor for Indiana’s remaining schedule is All-Star Tyrese Haliburton’s return, who should keep them competitive enough for a tanking team. They are catchable for Utah.
7. LA Lakers: With all the moves made, the Lakers will surely move in opposite standing directions from the Jazz.
8. Washington: The Wizards did not make big moves. Most notably, they kept Kyle Kuzma. Washington is not a playoff team, but they have more talented veterans than other tanking teams.
9. Toronto: The Raptors were a trade deadline wildcard, and instead of blowing things up, they kept all their veterans and added a much needed center in Jakob Poetl. That places them in a more competitive tier than Utah.
10. Chicago: The Bulls are an odd team, who made no moves. They have the talent to compete for the playoffs, but have underwhelmed. Luckily for the Jazz, they owe their first-round pick to the Magic this year, so have no incentive to tank. Utah should pass them.
11. Oklahoma City: The Thunder traded Mike Muscala and Darius Bazley, and added Dario Saric, who might be useful to them. They’ll remain in the tank race, but with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, they should be a team Utah can slip by in the lottery rankings.
12. Utah: It’s clear the Jazz are going to be much worse for the remaining schedule. They lost three of their top six minutes users, without replacing their production. While Lauri Markkanen is the best player on the team, Conley was the engine that made things run. Of all the tanking teams, Utah made the biggest changes that should result in more losses.
13. Portland: The Blazers made some lateral moves, keeping them neutral or a little worse. But while Dame plays, they shouldn’t be worse than the Jazz.
14. Golden State: The Warriors swapped James Wiseman for Gary Payton II. They will be competing for a playoff run, so they will most certainly be ahead of Utah in the standings unless key injuries happen.

Let’s reorganize the list above into tiers:

• Nearly locked into 1–4: Houston, Detroit, San Antonio, Charlotte
• In the mix for 5–10: Orlando, Indiana, Washington, Utah, Oklahoma City
• Should be better than the Jazz: Chicago, Toronto, Portland, LA Lakers, Golden State

So the Jazz will jockey with five other teams for that second tier of draft position. That’s a good place to be in, thanks to the odds smoothing. For example, finishing 5th worst gives a 10.5% chance at Victor Wembanyama, while finishing with a bottom-3 record gives a 14% chance. Riley Gisseman argued the 7–10 range gets you the best bang for your buck.

From tankathon.com

Where might the Jazz fall in that tier?

It should be close. The Thunder have the best net rating and easiest remaining strength of schedule. With their talent, they could end up with the better record. Utah’s roster changes will give them a lot of momentum toward the bottom while other teams should stay on relative course. But a lot of things can happen in the back half of the schedule. When the writing is on the wall, tanking teams tend to shut down their best players. How much will Bradley Beal, Haliburton, or Gilgeous-Alexander play the rest of the way? Will the Jazz strategically rest Markkanen? This seems doubtful.

The Jazz have quite a few games against their lottery competition, including four games against the Thunder!

Remaining Jazz games by opponent strength

Whatever happens, the Jazz are in a good position to maximize their draft capital this season. While even a 20% chance at getting Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson is a long shot, that’s still a very real path for the Jazz to get their missing superstar of the future. If that happens, they potentially have two stars locked up for around $30 million for a few years, with oodles of cap space and a war chest of assets to trade for another star. It would open a very unique window of opportunity to compete right away.

And if the lottery gods don’t favor the Jazz, getting a player in the 5–10 range still hopefully nets a solid starter with star-upside. With three first-round picks and the most cap space in some time, this will be a pivotal offseason that could define Utah’s next decade.