How the Jazz Can Improve Their Roster

Nemanja Bjelica is on an expiring deal and has been linked to the Jazz in the past. (Sergio Estrada)

Usually the Jazz community is swirling with trade rumors and ideas around this time of the year, with the trade deadline and buyout season just around the corner. But this year is unique. The Jazz roster is balanced, deep, and has no obvious holes. The Jazz, at 23-5, own the league’s best record with the league’s March 25 trade deadline now just weeks away. Ironically, the Jazz might be the most appealing to potential suitors in the trade market and among buyout candidates than they’ve been in a long time, and yet they have a solid rotation that has enabled them to win 19 of their last 20 games..

Still, if the Jazz are all-in this year, it makes sense to explore every opportunity to improve the roster. It’s a crazy season, and injuries and COVID protocols could provide motivation to add an insurance player. Let’s take a look at how the Jazz can improve.

The Needs

The biggest separation between the Jazz and the consensus title-favorite Lakers team is a bonafide superstar. We’ve debated whether Utah’s collective contribution can overcome players of LeBron James’ or Anthony Davis’ calibre. We’ve talked about how Donovan Mitchell has shown a superstar level in the playoffs already. The Jazz will have to prove it this post-season, because there aren’t any available moves to add a superstar to this team.

With that out of the way, perhaps the biggest theoretical need is a lengthy wing defender. Ben Simmons was able to get into the paint at will. A big question on the mind is how will the Jazz guard LeBron James? Bojan Bogdanovic is serviceable on defense, but isn’t going to lock down bigger scoring wings. Royce O’Neale can be the answer, but since he usually gets deployed against the opposing team’s best player, regardless of position, there are times his assignment for the night still leaves a long wing to guard. It may be a somewhat moot point — no one can really guard LeBron, and anybody the Jazz added at this point of their season wouldn’t likely take starter minutes anyway. So the need here is more about an an insurance option, someone who can help Utah survive against big scoring wings if Royce gets hurt or in foul trouble. Currently, the Jazz don’t have a good backup plan.

When you look at the Jazz roster, the top-8 rotation players feel locked in. All are playing at a high level and are more important to the Jazz than to other teams. It’s hard to conceive of any deal that involves one of those players and makes the Jazz better. That leaves Georges Niang as the remaining player that could be upgraded. You may look at his 34% 3-point shooting as a reason to pursue other stretch 4s. But it’s not so simple. Niang is having a career defensive year. Opposing players have tried to target him in the pick and roll, but Georges is holding his ground admirably. And while he is having a down shooting year, his reputation still earns him gravity, which is critical in Utah’s system. As a career 38% shooter from three, it’s reasonable to predict those numbers improve. Niang has four years of experience in Quin Snyder’s system under his belt, and he fits into his role seamlessly. On top of all that, he’s an excellent locker room presence who by all accounts is beloved by the team and organization. Even if you could find a player for that ninth-man role who was nominally better, it’s not a no-brainer.

That said, Niang is a free agent next season. He may be out of Utah’s price range, especially if they want Mike Conley back. And if the Jazz want to take every opportunity to improve the rotation this year, his 13 minutes per game are really the only ones  available to give.

Instead of a clear rotation improvement, the Jazz may just want an insurance player. Perhaps a traditional backup point guard if Conley is hurt, or another 3&D wing (which you can never have too many of). If a quality buyout player really wants to come to Utah, the front office may just welcome more overall talent.

Or, the Jazz may use their final roster spot on a pure leadership role. Utah has real championship ambitions, but no player with championship experience. The locker room is already solid, and has veteran leadership from Conley and others. But why not bring in another glue guy in case the going gets tough?

Lastly, the Jazz still have the option to reduce their tax bill. They can replace Shaq Harrison and another player to save money, in a maneuver our Dan Clayton has described where they’d trade two inexpensive players and then replace them on partial season deals. It seems unlikely they salary dump Miye Oni, Juwan Morgan, or Elijah Hughes, but they can do so if they want to forego a luxury tax bill this season.

Injury Depth

Before we look at available players, let’s take a quick look at how the Jazz have handled injuries thus far. The following rotation players have missed games:

• Conley: 5
• Joe Ingles: 4
• Derrick Favors: 2
• Mitchell: 2

Impressively, the Jazz are undefeated in all those games. Ingles has shifted into a starting role in games missed by his peers, and Oni and Morgan have filled in the bench minutes freed up by Joe’s promotion to the starting five. We have yet to see a starting big man miss games, so it’s unclear how Snyder will handle those scenarios. If O’Neale is injured, for example, a low usage defensive player like Oni or Morgan might be better with the starters. So far, Oni has been the clear 10th man, and Morgan the 11th.

As we’ve seen, the Jazz are flexible enough that Oni and Morgan can fill any gaps if the Jazz have one or two injured rotation players. More than two injuries or two injuries to the same position will derail any team. So if the Jazz are adding a player as injury insurance, ideally it’s a player that has more impact than Oni, Morgan, or even Niang. Otherwise the Jazz are planning for extreme scenarios.

The opportunities

There are four paths to improving the roster:

1. Sign an available free agent
2. Sign a player after he secures a buyout agreement from his current team
3. Make a marginal trade
4. Make an all in trade

Unsigned players

There are a handful of unsigned players that Jazz could sign right away if they wanted to. That Utah has preserved its 15th roster spot implies they are waiting to see what comes up. Of the available players, you could make a case that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson or Ersan Ilyasova might contribute. Hollis-Jefferson can’t shoot and Ilyasova can’t defend, so the Jazz would be adding a flawed player that probably won’t help them in the playoffs. It makes sense to explore buyout candidates before courting either player.

If the Jazz want to add a locker room leader, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol, and Jeremy Lin have all won titles and could be signed just for their leadership. They may even have break-glass-in-case-of-emergency play left in the tank.

Buyout candidates

This is the most interesting and likely of Utah’s options. Traditionally the Jazz have not had a lot of success luring these types of players, who usually have deals in place before the buyout is even completed. But the Jazz are the talk of the league and have a real shot at the title. They may prove a more attractive destination to quality players seeking a ring. They’re still going to compete with LA and Brooklyn for such players, and those teams can offer bigger markets, a chance to play alongside LeBron-level superstars, or a bigger role. Luckily those teams may be prioritizing centers, where the Jazz are not.

Let’s start with two obvious names: Nemanja Bjelica and Trevor Ariza. Bjelica has been linked to the Jazz before and is currently out of the Kings’ rotation. He’s similar in profile to Niang, but a more proven player. His defense is suspect, but if the opportunity is there, I suspect the Jazz give him a good look. Ariza is a theoretical fit, who still produced in his age-34 season last year and has length for defensive matchups. But OKC’s Sam Presti is not known to execute contract buyouts, and if he does, a Laker reunion makes a lot of sense for Trevor.

Another intriguing name is Rudy Gay. He’s playing 22 minutes per game for the Spurs, who if you haven’t noticed, are 8th in the league. It seems unlikely that San Antonio would buy him out at this point, but if they trail off and Rudy wants to play for a contender, they may grant his wish. At 6-foot-8 and shooting 37% from three, he could be an excellent fit for the Jazz.

Other buyout options become more tenuous. Javale McGee, Aron Baynes, Gorgui Dieng, and Robin Lopez have all been floated as buyout candidates, but the Jazz don’t need another center, and Brooklyn offers a bigger role.

Who knows what Chicago aims to do, but Garrett Temple could be a nice option.

Speaking of the Bulls, let’s look at a wildcard name: Otto Porter Jr. First off, I’m not sure why Chicago would want to buy him out unless they don’t have any trade offers, don’t want to re-sign him, but still want to help him out. It’s unlikely. But it was also unlikely that Nic Batum would be bought out, and look how that affected the Clippers. If there is a potential candidate that could really move the needle for a contender, it could be Otto, who is a versatile defender and career 40% from-3 shooter.

One other wild card that is getting some buzz: Blake Griffin. Okay, Griffin on the Jazz may seem crazy. For one, it’s unclear why the Pistons would buyout both this season and next year’s $39m. But Detroit has stopped playing him with the intent to sort out what his next steps with the franchise are. I can’t see any team trading for him, so maybe something can be arranged. The next question is whether Griffin is completely washed. Personally, I don’t think so. His defense is painful to watch and his 3-point shot — which two seasons ago was 37% on 7 attempts per game — has deserted him. But in a smaller bench role, and next to Gobert or Favors, I could see both problems improving. His playmaking ability at the big position is tantalizing in Snyder’s offense. This scenario is one of the more unlikely, but perhaps the most fun to think about.

Marginal trade candidates

Many Jazz fans have clamored for a PJ Tucker trade. First we can discuss if Tucker is really a good target for the Jazz — he’s best as a small 5, which wouldn’t help Utah. And his offensive ability is pretty limited at this point. Not to mention his past beef with Gobert. But even if the Jazz wanted him, a trade would require either a top-8 rotation player or 4 of Niang, Udoka, Oni, Morgan, and Hughes. Not worth it for the Jazz, and it’s really tough to make a 4-for-1 deal for a non-star. Tucker may be a possible buyout candidate, but he’s fairly tradable with his current contract.

Because of the hard cap, the Jazz really can only bring back around $4–6.6 million in salary (multiply outgoing salary by 125%) by trading a combination of Niang, Udoka, and Shaq Harrison. While I really like Shaq, he’s had trouble finding minutes behind Miye Oni and could be used for salary purposes. But the organization is high on Udoka, and Niang is playing an important role. It’s hard to find any player in that price range that is going to improve the team.

Maybe a small move for a player like Raul Neto or the aforementioned Temple happens. Perhaps a bigger wing like Danuel House or Dorian Finney-Smith becomes available. But a trade feels pretty hard to pull off at this point.

An all in move

If we’re talking about hard to pull off, we might as dive into the deep end for a moment. Let’s look at Utah’s current situation: they’re the number one seed in the league. Anthony Davis is out for several weeks with a calf injury. Without Davis, the Lakers are vulnerable (although I would never write off LeBron, even without AD). Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are banged up. Nagging injuries or COVID protocols could hinder either LA team during the playoffs. The Jazz may look at this year and deem it their best opportunity to win a championship.

If they really believe that, they push in all their chips. As we’ve discussed, there aren’t many realistic trades. It would be extremely difficult to trade one of their rotation players for a star. They are limited by the Conley trade in how many first round picks they can give up. It’s tough to find anyone of note in the $4-6 million range.

But here’s one crazy idea. There are three quality forwards who have been in trade rumors and fit the price range: Josh Hart, Lauri Markkanen, and John Collins. Let’s run through all the reasons it’s an improbable consideration first:

• The Jazz have limited assets to make a compelling offer. Atlanta is reportedly seeking a lottery pick for Collins. Is Niang, Udoka, and some combination of future picks or swaps enough for the Hawks?
• The Jazz would be paying a high price for a half-season rental. All of those players are seeking big deals next season, and Utah couldn’t keep them without an insane tax payment or trading away a bigger salary. Perhaps Bojan could be included in a deal, or the Jazz could engineer a sign-and-trade next season. In any scenario, it’s a risky move.
• The Jazz can’t offer a very big role. Lauri and John have started their whole career and play 30+ minutes per game. Even Hart is playing 28 minutes off the bench. The Jazz could move Bojan or Royce to bench (hard to swallow) or give up Niang’s plus part of Favors’ or Ingles’ minutes … again, this is really hard to pull off.

All that said, maybe one of those players pushes Utah over the top. We see contenders get in arms races this time of year and pay a premium for any advantage. Daryl Morey said that a team with a five percent chance of winning a title owes it to themselves to go all in. What price are the Jazz willing to pay for a championship?

Realistic expectations

It’s safer to expect the Jazz will not add any significant players this season. And that’s okay. The current roster is really awesome, and it’s reasonable to leave a good thing alone. The Jazz can bring back the same core next year without mortgaging their future. I can see Utah adding an insurance player, but anything larger would be surprising. But this team has already surprised us all. You never know, and that’s part of what makes the league exciting.