How the Jazz measure up in the new Western Conference landscape

The dust has settled. Barring a mega-trade involving a disgruntled star, teams are mostly formed following a frenzy of activity over the last week. Unlike last season, most Western Conference teams made adjustments rather than shakeups. Let’s take a look at the presumptive playoff teams in Utah’s conference and how the Jazz measure up. In order of last season’s record:

Utah Jazz

Last offseason, the Jazz reacted to the Lakers’ 2020 title by  adding size to counter L.A.’s jumbo lineups. They committed to always having a non-shooting rim protector on the floor, with the option to even play both against teams like the Lakers. This scenario never really came to fruition. Derrick Favors ended up being a move that cost them, as instead they encountered the other L.A. team, whose style of play caused them problems. After unceremoniously losing in the second round, it was the clear the team needed more flexibility and length. We’ve already belabored the point that Utah was missing one and a half All-Stars, but the needs were clear regardless.

Enter Rudy Gay, Hassan Whiteside, Jared Butler, and Eric Paschall (along with a returning Mike Conley Jr.). A fond farewell to Jazz favorites Favors and Georges Niang. This lightly reloaded team feels better equipped to handle small ball lineups and has a little more resilience to injuries. We can expect Conley to miss some time for rest or injury, and Butler provides guard depth. If signed, Trent Forrest has been looking great in Summer League. Gay — and to a lesser extent Paschall — give Utah some bigger bodies to throw at wings and small centers. Whiteside hopes to replicate Favors’ production and retain the ability to match bigger teams.

We’ll see how the new pieces fit, but the Jazz should look to defend their top seeded campaign and make a deeper push in the postseason.

Status: about the same or slightly better

Phoenix Suns

Much like the Jazz, the Suns kept their star guard (Chris Paul) and made a few tweaks around the margins. Notably, they swapped Jevon Carter for Landry Shamet, and then signed Javale McGee to upgrade the backup center position. While Torrey Craig left for a bigger deal, they got Cameron Payne back at a great price point. The only reason the Suns won’t be just as good or better is if Paul takes a sharp decline. That’s not something I would count on. Phoenix is likely to be Utah’s biggest competitor for the best regular season record, and has already proven it can go far in the playoffs. The Suns are going to be around for a while.

Status: about the same or slightly better

Denver Nuggets

Evaluating the Nuggets revolves around Jamal Murray. After an ACL injury, he looks to return no sooner than partway through the season. How much time he misses and what he looks like upon return will in large part determine the Nuggets’ ceiling. Without Murray they’re still a very good team, but not in the contender tier. In the few games Murray played with midsaeason acquisition Aaron Gordon before the injury, they looked like a juggernaut. They’ll bring back largely that same team, after retaining Austin Rivers, JaMychal Green, and Will Barton. Paul Millsap is likely gone, but they signed a replacement in Jeff Green. Michael Porter Jr. still has room for growth and Nikola Jokic found another level in his MVP season. Depending on Murray, the Nuggets range from dangerous to as good as any team in the West.

Status: worse without Murray, about the same when he returns*

* with the caveat that the Nuggets were really freaking good when Murray and Gordon both played

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers’ success also hinges on a star player returning from injury. But the Clippers rely on Kawhi Leonard even more than the Nuggets do on Murray. Leonard’s timeline is less clear, however. He may not return at all next season, which pushes the Clippers out of title contention (even if they deserve credit for beating an also-injured Jazz team twice without Kawhi). Serge Ibaka also looks to miss time next season from injury.

The Clippers did retain Nicolas Batum and Reggie Jackson, both of whom were key for them. They bring back essentially the same roster, adding Justise Winslow and rookie Brandon Boston. Do these moves signal that they are still all-in with the hope that Kawhi returns? Maybe. But without Kawhi, they’re not a contending team.

Status: worse with injuries

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks traded away Josh Richardson and used their exceptions to add Reggie Bullock and Sterling Brown. They also retained Tim Hardaway Jr. and Boban Marjanovic. While they struck out on adding a star free agent, I really like what Dallas did with their roster, adding shooting and perimeter defense around Luka Doncic. I don’t like their coaching change at all, but who knows — Jason Kidd may find a way to better utilize Kristaps Porzingis, or at least force the front office to make a trade. Doncic will continue his superstar ascent and the Mavericks should have better injury luck. Coaching and Porzingis are the biggest question marks, but this is a team on the rise. Also, trading for Goran Dragic would help relieve pressure from Doncic.

Status: better

Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers are in a holding pattern until something big happens. They retained Norman Powell and added Tony Snell and Ben McLemore. They lost Enes Kanter, Carmelo Anthony, and Zach Collins. Maybe they finally trade CJ McCollum in a lateral move for a slightly better fit. Maybe the teams explodes if Damian Lillard demands a trade. It feels like this team is destined to perform about the same — unless they blow up completely.

Status: about the same or dramatically worse

Los Angeles Lakers

There’s no tougher team to evaluate than the Lakers. I won’t even list all the personnel changes; the Lakers signed a slew of veterans to 1-year deals while using their biggest exception on bulldog guard Kendrick Nunn. Much hinges on how Russell Westbrook integrates with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. He’s yet to show much interest in playing off-ball, and his lack of spacing causes issues. That said, he’s extremely talented and plays with ferocity. I like most of the other moves LA made, especially given the value they added using minimum contracts. They added shooting and length. That said, they may run into a problem Denver has had recently: too many players specializing in offense or defense, but not both. We’ll see who’s playable come playoff time.

While I think this is going to be a very good team, I like Utah’s matchup with them. They no longer have the guard defense that gave the Jazz problems. Mitchell and Conley should be able to carve up this new batch of guards. And Dwight Howard allows Gobert to stay in the paint. Utah can still counter jumbo lineups. Further, while Gay isn’t stopping LeBron, he’s another long body to help Royce O’Neale.

This is the team I’m most interested to see, but on paper I think they’re a little better. And it goes without saying that health is a huge factor here (which should be helped by a longer offseason).

Status: better, but we’ll see

Memphis Grizzlies

Non-contending teams will get a lower word count here. As the Jazz saw first hand in the playoff matchup, the Grizzlies are a team on the rise. But none of their moves vaulted them into the next tier of competition yet. They remain a young team that will rely on development to get to the next level. Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, Jontay Porter in place of Jonas Valanciunas, Grayson Allen, and Winslow could be a wash. Trey Murphy is a nice pickup. They just need reps.

Status: about the same

Golden State Warriors

You’ll notice a growing theme: much depends on how players returning from injury look. Klay Thompson and the Warriors fall into that category. Everyone (including Klay himself) expect this to take time. Either way, Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, and Andre Igoudala look like nice pickups — but Porter hasn’t been the same since injuries, Bjelica barely played last season, and Igoudala is 37. They also lost Kelly Oubre (addition by subtraction?), Eric Paschall, and Kent Bazemore (who had a quietly nice season).

Yes, they should be better. And Steph Curry still has it. But there are questions.

Status: better

The rest: Spurs, Pelicans, Kings, Timberwolves, Thunder, and Rockets

These teams are in various states of rebuilding, retooling, and stuck competing for the play-in spots. We could see movement around the middle, but no changes were big enough to push into the next group yet.

How will the Jazz stack up?

Utah should have another decent shot at claiming the top seed and contending for a title this season. As we learned, luck and health are massive factors. Despite a lack of both, the Jazz fell short and have a lot to prove. But on paper they have another opportunity this coming season. No other team feels impossible to beat. The league is a good spot in terms of parity, with four different teams winning the last four championships. The path to winning it all is hard, and if the Bucks are an example to follow, sometimes it just takes several years of failing and retooling around a solid core — and of course a healthy dose of luck — before a title can be won.