Imagining Mitchell’s Future in a New Basketball Framework

Could Mitchell get to the rim even more with a personnel change that could open up more space in the lane? (Garrett Ellwood via espn.com)

The future of the Utah Jazz is up in the air. Donovan Mitchell may very well not be in a Jazz uniform to start the 2022-23 season. The Jazz are clearly engaged in talks that could send Mitchell out and start a rebuild for the Jazz.

It’s an understandable step, even if it comes at a time when Mitchell’s basketball reality might be on the verge of changing. Other personnel changes around Mitchell could make this an interesting experiment to see what Mitchell can do with cleaner driving lanes, if the Jazz were instead to seek a direction where they can build a true contender with their matchable veteran salaries and assets from prior trades. 

Even with negotiations ongoing around the 3-time All-Star, it’s worth considering just how different Mitchell’s Utah future could look within an entirely new basketball context. Or, conversely, what the Jazz may be giving up.

Donovan Mitchell is special

Mitchell has always been an elite shooter on catch-and-shoot threes (40% in his career) and has grown into an elite pull-up shooter. As Dan Favale pointed out, Mitchell was one of just four NBA players last season to take at least four pull-up threes per game and convert 35% of them. The others: superstars Steph Curry and Luka Doncic, as well as the fast rising Trae Young.

He’s also elite as a playmaker and pick-and-roll handler, scoring more points out of P&R situations than nearly anybody in the league:

Mitchell’s is one of the best pick-and-roll scorers in the game right now. (Source: nba.com)

Some of that is built off the on-court relationship with Rudy Gobert — that tandem was the #1 pick-and-roll duo in the league last season. But a lot of it is Mitchell’s own brilliance as a creator.

Rudy and Don

Even before the Jazz acquired Mike Conley Jr., I wrote about how Gobert’s impact elevates point guard play at both ends of the court. And it’s true! George Hill, Ricky Rubio and even Shelvin Mack all had career years playing with the former Jazz defensive stalwart. There’s many reasons for this. Conley continued the tradition, earning his first All-Star appearance playing with Gobert. Of course, he wasn’t in his prime anymore and he his scoring average was down from his Memphis peak, but his shooting, playmaking and overall impact were top notch. The efficiency of the Conley-Gobert pick and roll was a big part of that, especially as the two decimated opposing bench units in the Jazz’s staggered rotation.

Notably, there’s a few areas where Gobert’s play helps creating guards. His absurdly elite screens allow these players to get off-the-bounce threes at the top of the arc right off the screen. His picks create so much space that if they immediately let it fly, they can usually get an open three. Conley, too, had an elite year as a pull-up threat, sinking the highest percentage among all players with at least as many such attempts. Even if there’s a switch on the high screen, guards can often find their shot during the split-second confusion.

Gobert also has so much gravity rolling to the rim that it leaves corner shooters open, which means that the ball-handler has a plethora of options off the screen. Hit the rolling big, pop the three, or swing to the corners. Quin Snyder’s system of “advantage basketball” enhanced those options, but it’s also just good common-sense basketball stuff once the defense is forced to commit to taking away the Gobert roll.

All of this should — and does! — also help Mitchell. But here’s the catch: Mitchell has not been playing as a natural point guard through his career. And even if that is his natural and future position on this or any other team, he’s so much different than any of those other guys. Namely because his most elite level skill is getting to the basket and finishing around and through contact, rather than finding a lob-finisher, for example.

Mitchell undeniably benefitted in some ways from having Gobert as his pick-and-roll partner, but the latter’s gravity on the roll means the lane gets incredibly clogged, which could impact a crafty scorer like Mitchell. This is fine for Conley, who wants to lob it up or take a floater. (Notably, Wovles guard D’Angelo Russell loves the pull-up three around a screen, throwing lobs, and hitting floaters. He will shine with Rudy.)

It might be a bigger deal for Donovan, who wants to get to the cup for an and-one.

So while Mitchell’s pick and roll efficiency with Rudy was stellar and his off-the-bounce and catch-and-shoot threes were great, you could argue that his interior finishing was somewhat, um, stifled because both guys are essentially targeting the same space when they head to the lane after a ball screen. And despite this, they were still a great tandem!

Mitchell Unlocked

New Jazz coach Will Hardy may not put together a system exactly like the Celtics’ 5-out motion ball with a bevy of athletic wings and switchability, but he will have some options for a more modern system than the previous one centered around a traditional rim-rolling big like Gobert. If Mitchell is somehow still on this team, he might finally be unleashed to do some heavy damage in the paint and at the rim.

Mitchell is also highly motivated. People are quick to point to the recent playoffs, or even stretches of this past season, where he seemed less engaged on defense or less connected in to his teammates. And that’s also true. It’s also a solvable problem and somewhat understandable given the drama surrounding the team over the past few seasons: the Jazz being central to the March 2020 COVID-related pause, later the “Great Bubble Collapse” vs. the Denver Nuggets, another playoff collapse in 2021, and constant rumors of unhappiness and looming roster change. We know he has the motor. We know he has the desire. We know he has the tools. He just needs to be unlocked and free, the way he was as a rookie and second year player.

The possibility of unleashing a Mitchell version with more inside finishing is likely why the Jazz’s asking price for the young star is reportedly high. There is likely some curiosity about how Mitchell’s game could evolve untethered from a traditional dive big-oriented offense, and as such the Jazz will move him only if the right offer materializes. The Jazz are reportedly angling for a “historic haul” of first-round picks, along with young, cheap talent. A Knicks deal makes sense given their abundance of draft assets and young guys with upset like Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin. According to reports, though, New York has backed away after getting close on a deal. From here, this will be a game of chicken that could take days or weeks to resolve… or the Knicks could suddenly demonstrate a willingness to pay the price and a deal could be done any minute.

Either way, Mitchell will have the opportunity to demonstrate what he can do outside of the context of the Gobert-Mitchell partnership. Whether that’s for the Knicks, the Jazz or some other team, we may witness a very different set of the guard’s strengths on display in what could be a historically great season from one Donovan Mitchell.