Is This the Best Jazz Team Since Stockton and Malone?

The Jazz have a very solid core in place. Could they become the best Jazz team since Stockton and Malone? (David Sherman via espn.com)

The 1990s Jazz saw sustained excellence for over a decade, with an impressive .678 record over 13 seasons and deep playoff runs that culminated with two Finals appearances. Since franchise legends John Stockton and Karl Malone hung up their sneakers, though, success has been more of a mixed bag. Let’s summarize the ups and downs of the 21st-century Jazz:

The ups: Underdog stories like Sundiata Gaines and the starless but overachieving 42-40 team … winning hardware, including a pair of DPOY and dunk champion trophies … optimism behind the “core four” of Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, and Enes Kanter — and later Trey Burke as a fifth Jazz lottery pick in that era… memorable moments like the Miracle in Miami and Joe Johnson’s playoff buzzer beater … making the Western Conference Finals … draft-day trades for Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell … upset playoff victories over star-studded Thunder and Clipper teams.

The downs: Hayward’s awkward 4th of July departure … the resignation of Jerry Sloan and subsequent trade of Deron Williams … the Ty Corbin era … (arguable) lottery misses in Kanter, Burke and Dante Exum… eight years of missed playoffs … hitting the Spurs/Lakers wall in the postseason … hitting the Warriors/Rockets wall in the postseason.

This is the life of a sports fan. Following a sports team is a microcosm of the human experience, and the highs are tempered by the lows. Fortunately the Jazz are a well-run organization, and even bad teams gave reason for optimism. It can be nice to root for a team of young players when the expectations are low, and hints of stardom are around the corner.

As fans, we’ve experienced a couple of rebuilds since the Stockton-to-Malone days, but the Jazz are a good team again. Offseason optimism was high, and despite an up-and-down start, there’s a chance this team could be more than good. 

Which begs the question: can this be best Jazz team since the one led by franchise icons Stockton and Malone?

There are different ways to define “best team” in basketball: playoff success, win/loss record, offensive and defensive rankings, raw talent, and storylines. Eight Jazz teams have reached the playoffs in the post-Karl-and-John era. We’ll rank them to see what the 2020-21 team is up against.

8. The 2008–2009 Jazz

• Best players: Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur (or Andrei Kirilenko if you prefer)
• Win/loss percentage: 0.585
• Playoff rounds: 1
• Offensive ranking: 8
• Defensive ranking: 10

The story: Boozer missed 45 games and this team fell flat after solid playoff pushes in the previous two years. It sported the worst win/loss record of the playoff teams. This resulted in a 1-4 loss to the Lakers, eventual champions that year behind Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.

7. The 2018–2019 Jazz

• Best players: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles (or Ricky Rubio if you prefer)
• Win/loss percentage: 0.610
• Playoff rounds: 1
• Offensive ranking: 15
• Defensive ranking: 2

The story: This was a dominant defensive team that couldn’t hit an open three against the Rockets. Houston was a nightmare matchup, and despite a creative scheme designed around MVP James Harden and slowed the historically good Rockets offense, the team’s clogged spacing on offense limited its ceiling and resulted in a roster shakeup.

6. The 2019–2020 Jazz

• Best players: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic
• Win/loss percentage: 0.611
• Playoff rounds: 1
• Offensive ranking: 10
• Defensive ranking: 13

The story: Last year’s team could easily be ranked higher, but Mike Conley’s slow start and Bojan’s injury stunted its potential. Ultimately I’m giving playoff success the most weight, and all other teams made it further. But hey, if Mike’s half-court heave rims in — one of the biggest what ifs in team history — this is a very different story.

5. The 2017–2018 Jazz

• Best players: Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles
• Win/loss percentage: 0.585
• Playoff rounds: 2
• Offensive ranking: 16
• Defensive ranking: 2

The story: This team had a storybook season: Hayward left and it looked to outsiders like the Jazz would be mired in mediocrity. In came Mitchell, and the team didn’t skip a beat, with one of the most satisfying playoff victories against the “big three” of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony. This team earns its high ranking despite lower win totals with its excellent defense and renewed optimism in contrast to the terrible preceding summer.

4. The 2009–2010 Jazz

• Best players: Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur
• Win/loss percentage: 0.646
• Playoff rounds: 2
• Offensive ranking: 8
• Defensive ranking: 10

The story: This was a really good team, with balanced offensive and defensive rating, and the same core group that had been to the Western Conference Finals just a couple seasons earlier. Unfortunately they had to play the Lakers again, resulting in a second round sweep. The team’s ceiling was becoming apparent and Deron Williams had one foot out the door.

3. The 2016–2017 Jazz

• Best players: Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, George Hill
• Win/loss percentage: 0.622
• Playoff rounds: 2
• Offensive ranking: 12
• Defensive ranking: 3

The story: This was a really fun team and the culmination of the core four era. Hayward’s statement season and Gobert’s rapid improvement led the Jazz to reimagine their identity coming out of the “Core Four” era,  and Burks and Favors settled in as key role players. The addition of savvy vets like Boris Diaw, Johnson, and Hill combined with new players in Ingles and Rodney Hood resulted in a deep team that upset (and ultimately broke up) the Chris Paul-Blake Griffin Clippers.

2. The 2007–2008 Jazz

• Best players: Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur
• Win/loss percentage: 0.659
• Playoff rounds: 2
• Offensive ranking: 1
• Defensive ranking: 10

The story: This is another great Boozer/Williams team that earns the second spot by virtue of having the best win/loss record and best cumulative offensive/defensive rankings, and a league-leading offense. You could fairly argue they were the best Jazz team since Stockton and Malone if they hadn’t once again faced the Lakers in the second round (you’re probably noticing a theme). To be fair, they did steal two games from LA in the most competitive Jazz-Lakers series of this era.

1. The 2006–2007 Jazz

• Best players: Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur
• Win/loss percentage: 0.622
• Playoff rounds: 3
• Offensive ranking: 3
• Defensive ranking: 18

The story: Yes, this team’s defense wasn’t great. Yes, they had some matchup luck when the eighth-seeded Warriors removed the 67-win Mavs from their playoff path. But ultimately they’re remembered by a Western Conference Finals appearance, and that’s what wins them the best team crown. They overachieved, won storyline points as a young team on the ascent, and their offense was fantastic, led by second-year Williams and bolstered by depth in Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, C.J. Miles, Matt Harpring, and even the controversial Derek Fisher. They represent the high point of the 2000s Jazz.

? – The 2020–2021 Jazz

Where will this current squad land on the ranking of Jazz teams post John and Karl? They probably need to make the Western Conference Finals to unseat the 2007 gropu as the best since the Finals core stepped away. A first-round exit would be a disappointment, and at least a second round appearance is the expectation. Now, the ’06–07 Jazz were lucky — they avoided the top-seeded Mavericks who were upset in the first round by the “I Believe” Warriors. If this team ends up against an LA team in the second round but has a very competitive series, you could make a case based on other merits. Let’s take a look at those.

To have the best win/loss record, the Jazz would need to win at least 48 of their 72 games. That’s equivalent to 54 or 55 wins in a normal 82 game schedule. It’s a tall order, especially given the West’s talent. After an 7-4 start, they’d need to finish 41-20 to achieve the best regular season win percentage on this list of Jazz squads. Luckily, the second half of the schedule should prove easier.

The Jazz have only been a top-10 team in both offense and defense three times in the recent era. This Utah team is fairly balanced and has a path to improve its 10th best offense and 13th best defense from last season. They’re 12th and 9th now, respectively, but if Conley maintains his good start and Bojan and Donovan return to form, the offense can be better. Favors’ role as the bench defense anchor and another year of experience should improve the defense.

Perhaps the biggest reason this year’s roster is in the best team discussion is its talent. On paper the case is pretty straight-forward.

Williams was the best Jazz player since Stockton and Malone, who jockeyed with Chris Paul for top point guard in the league designation and sniffed the fringes of MVP discussion¹ The Jazz don’t as yet have a fringe MVP candidate. Donovan Mitchell will enter the conversation, but his body of work, accolades, and overall impact aren’t quite there yet. Rudy Gobert is the obvious contender, so let’s take a closer look at Williams vs. Gobert as the best players on their respective Jazz teams.

Comparing Jazz careers (per basketball-reference.com)

Unless you heavily favor offense, Rudy has the numbers edge. We’re comparing two very different players from slightly different eras, but I’m picking Rudy—not just from a statistical standpoint, but also from a legacy standpoint. Williams was unceremoniously traded in his 6th season while Gobert is entering his 9th season, and under contract for at least four more.

Whether Gobert is the best Jazz player since the statues can be debated; Donovan Mitchell is clearly the most talented number two, with a path to ultimately take the title as the most valuable Jazzman. With respect to Boozer and Hayward, the combination of Gobert and Mitchell is clearly the most talented tandem, post-2003.

Moving down the roster, Conley and Bogdanovic have a good case as Utah’s best third and fourth players, perhaps in all of Jazz history. Hornacek and Russell were key players, but neither had the raw numbers of Mike and Bojan. Okur and Kirilenko were great, but the latter wasn’t as prolific during the Williams/Boozer era as he was during his lone All-Star season, just before the stars arrived.

Altogether, Utah’s top eight players could be the most talented of the batch. Would you take Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, and Kyle Korver over Gobert, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Conley, Royce O’Neale, Ingles, Favors, and Jordan Clarkson?

We’ve seen this story before: a talented team proves itself during the regular season, but then meets a dominant team in the playoffs and can’t get over the hump. With the Lakers and Clippers as favorites and a heap of competitive teams in the West, the Jazz could easily fizzle out in the playoffs with the wrong matchup.

But the team is good enough to have a puncher’s chance against anyone, and we’ve seen heroic playoff performances before. They have talent and experience. The newer players have a year under their belt. Contract issues are settled. Rudy has a chip on his shoulder and Donovan will only get better. The oddities of a pandemic-influenced season add some chaos to the equation. As fans, it’s fair to ask, “why not this year?”