It’s Literally Time for the Jazz to Make a Trade

As of Sunday, NBA teams can legally trade (most) players that they signed this past offseason, making around 90% of the league eligible for trade. Trade season is fun. Fans love talking about and dreaming about it. Trade season gets so much excitement and hype that ESPN has devoted a television show with Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe just to talk about hypothetical trades. Over the next 53 days, Jazz fans and talk show hosts and everyone in between will speculate on whether the Jazz will swap out some players or picks and upgrade the roster.

If you have watched the Jazz play this season, you have probably come to the conclusion that changes need to be made, either to the current lineups or the actual roster. It’s not that the Jazz have completely underwhelmed record wise. Fourteen wins in 25 games is a pretty reasonable outcome with this schedule, but if you’ve watched the Jazz enough, you know that the bench play and overall offense just aren’t enough to get this team to where they thought they could get. The Jazz probably need to make a trade to upgrade this roster.

The Jazz already made a big trade this season, but are they done? (via espn.com)

The proper question isn’t whether or not the Jazz will make a trade. Making a trade is like a romantic relationship; it takes at least 2 to happen. The question is: will the Jazz be out on the market looking for love?

While I agree with the Athletic’s John Hollinger that this trade season has tremendous potential to be a dud, there are two reasons that lead me to believe that the Jazz will be very active on the trade market in the next 2 months.

#1. This current front office has been very active with trades recently.

July 10, 2013- Jazz make a trade with Golden State to help them land Andre Iguodala, mostly landing picks for taking on salary

Feb 19, 2015- Jazz trade Enes Kanter and Steve Novak for a 1st and 2nd round pick

Feb 18, 2016- Jazz trade a 2nd round pick for Shelvin Mack

July 7, 2016- Jazz trade Trey Burke to Washington for a 2nd round pick; Jazz trade Olivier Hanlan to the Spurs for Boris Diaw; Jazz trade a first round pick for George Hill.

June 22, 2017- Jazz trade Tyler Lydon and Trey Lyles for Donovan Mitchell. I can’t believe I just wrote that. The Jazz trade Josh Hart and Thomas Bryant for Tony Bradley. I can’t believe I just wrote that.

Feb 8, 2018- Jazz trade Rodney Hood to the Cavaliers for Jae Crowder and Derrick Rose and some 2nd round pick swaps

Nov 29, 2018- Jazz trade Alec Burks and two second round picks to the Cavaliers for Kyle Korver

June 21,2019- Jazz trade into the end of the draft for Jarrell Brantley and Miye Oni

July 7, 2019- Jazz trade draft assets and a trio of players for Mike Conley

The Jazz have made a fairly large trade every season for the last six years. Now you could argue that the Jazz have already made their trade for this season and that’s probably true. But what can’t be argued is that the Jazz have no problems executing trades when they feel a need. And if the Jazz made this many trades, how many did they pursue?

#2. The Jazz know that they can’t be patient in team building like they once could.

In an interview with Gordon Monson and Jake Scott on the Big Show on August 5, new Jazz General Manager Justin Zanik had this to say:

“You remember, Gordon, when there were six, seven, eight year deals and the salary cap was 40% of what it is now and growing at 1 or 2%. Now salary cap is growing at 10% and contracts are much shorter. And by that nature team building has become much shorter. The days of… a team of 15 guys and 12 of those guys are there for five, six, seven years, just contracts and opportunities and other places, it becomes much shorter, so things become much more fluid…. we do and have a plan for that on a yearly, 3-year basis, 5-year basis, and trying to plan for some of the things that are unknown too.”

In other words, the Jazz are on the clock to build a contender and the roster is more fluid than it used to be.

Why the Jazz Can’t Wait this Roster Out

There has been some talk online among Jazz fans that this team just needs time to come together. After all, last year’s team started 10-12 and turned out to be a pretty good team. Besides the fact that this year’s team has much higher expectations than last, last season was saved, or at least maximized by the trade for Korver.

The Jazz basically traded a borderline NBA rotation player and two second round picks for a veteran shooting presence. It made all the difference in their overall play.

Before the Korver trade the Jazz had a -3.1 point differential and a 10-12 record. After the trade the Jazz had a +7.9 differential. That wasn’t all due to the schedule. The Jazz don’t have the contracts or the assets to pull off a major trade in the next 50 days, but they may have enough to mimic the Korver deal from 12 months ago.

What Can the Jazz Do?

Before we go any further discussing Jazz potential trades, we need to get some assumptions out of the way. The Jazz are not trading Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, or Conley. The Jazz can’t trade Joe Ingles until next summer due to his contract extension. The Jazz need to do some roster remodeling, not tear down the whole foundation. Royce O’Neale should probably be included on the “will not trade” list, but there is enough going on with his pending restricted free agency that the Jazz may fear his upcoming contract. I’d still put Royce’s chances of being traded very very close to zero percent.

Here is a list of the assets the Jazz could use in a trade from most valuable to least:

1. 2026 first round pick¹
2. O’Neale (I don’t think the Jazz will trade O’Neale)
3. Ed Davis
4. San Antonio’s 2022 second round pick
5. Cleveland’s 2024 second round pick swap
6. Golden State’s 2023 second round pick
7. Golden State’s 2022 second round pick
8. Tony Bradley
9. Emmanuel Mudiay
10. Jeff Green
11. Georges Niang
12. Dante Exum (Exum is negative value at this point and with $9 million next season too… he’d be valuable as an expiring)

(Note: the Jazz also have their own second-round picks starting in 2022. They owe their 2020 and 2021 second-rounders. Their 2024 pick is owed in a pick swap with Cleveland — see #5 above — so Utah will only get the least valuable of theirs and the Cavs’ second-rounder in that draft.)

The Jazz aren’t trading another first round pick, protected or not, for anything less than a starting caliber player, so I would be surprised if they even use their best available asset. 

Generally speaking, the Jazz are short on good players, good picks and tradeable salaries to match incoming salaries.  The best offer they can reasonably make is something along the lines of Davis, Green and two future 2nd round picks. The most salary they can reasonably aggregate to get one player is about $14 million. So while Danilo Galinari makes sense as a trade target, his $22 million salary makes it nearly impossible. Same goes for Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrew Wiggins and a number of other rumored available players.

How Do the Jazz Fix the Bench?

The Jazz have thrived recently working together as a team both on offense and defense. Everyone touches the ball on offense, so that everyone feels engaged enough to do the little, necessary things for a top functioning defense. Ingles ran the pick n roll last season with Derrick Favors and Korver in the corner spotting up for open 3-pointers. Ingles as a full time bench player is a fine idea in theory, but he either needs a pick-and-roll big or guys who can pass to him for open spot up three pointers. Instead the Jazz brought in a big man who can’t run the pick-and-roll and two players who haven’t moved the ball or played defense in their entire careers in Green and Mudiay. In hindsight, the bench’s limitations should not have been surprising. It doesn’t look like any type of Jazz basketball we’ve seen under Quin Snyder. 

Marcus Morris makes some sense as a Jazz trade target, since he has an average salary, can guard big wings, and is a deadly spot-up shooter. However, he is also one of the biggest ball stoppers in the NBA. I’d pass on a deal for him.

Andre Iguodala is a terrific ball mover and one of the best guys to guard the Kawhis and LeBrons in the playoffs. But he is a so-so spot up shooter and, most problematically, the Jazz don’t necessarily have the assets to acquire him. If he doesn’t join an LA team after a buyout, my money is on Denver acquiring him.

This is all leading  up to the heart of the matter. The Jazz need to trade for a pick-and-roll big and spot up shooters to play with Ingles off the bench. Davis is a good player and seems like a great guy, but he isn’t thriving here. It’s a style of play issue and nothing else. Christian Wood and Damian Jones are two P&R bigs who get 15-20 mpg for their respective teams. They are both very efficient as roll men and they both could be available since they play minor roles on the Pistons and Hawks, respectively. Atlanta needs assets and defensive help. The Pistons need money savings and players that will help them get to the playoffs. They are right up against the tax. Atlanta is the only team with current cap space.

Trade #1

A swap with the Pistons could shore up Utah’s depth, Clark Schmutz writes.

There is nothing sexy about this trade. No big names. It saves the Pistons $2 million and the Exum and Tony Snell contracts are essentially a wash. The Jazz get Wood and a spot-up shooting threat in Snell. Tim Frazier and Thon Maker are almost dead salary. Davis becomes insurance against the offseason negotiations going poorly with Andre Drummond. Maybe Exum needs a new opportunity. I think it helps the Jazz though.

Trade #2

Clark’s other trade proposal is a straight-up bench big swap

This is essentially an offense for defense trade. Atlanta needs more defensive presence and the Jazz need Jones’ P&R abilities. Bogdanovic could be the spot up shooter in the bench lineup. So could Jeff Green. 

The Jazz need to make a trade before the bench torpedoes the season.  The Jazz have a two-year window to compete with their core guys and they don’t have a season to waste. I don’t expect the Jazz to make a trade for a big name. If they make a deal, it may seem very underwhelming at first. But if they can bring in the right type of pieces and fix the bench, it could turn out to be the sequel to the Korver trade and could turn this season around like the last one.