Jazz Draft Watch Part I: Can Utah Strike Gold With Another Non-Lotto Big?

Could this draft be like 2013, when the best players were selected outside the lottery?

With the NBA Finals potentially ending tonight, we are fast approaching the offseason and one of my favorite times of the year: NBA Draft Season. As with so much in 2020, this draft will be different, and not only because it is being held in November instead of June. With no NCAA tournament and without a traditional combine or team interviews, NBA teams are going to have to evaluate the talent of potential prospects using existing film. The Jazz will face additional challenges as former VP of Player Personnel (and draft guru) Walt Perrin departed for the Knicks during the hiatus.

Additionally, this draft is unusual in the lack of consensus. There is no clear No. 1 pick, despite LaMelo Ball being at or near the top of most boards because of his potential. There isn’t even consensus in who the top 3 players are and the further down you go on big boards, the less agreement there is. 

I’m going to be doing a weekly series for the next few weeks evaluating some prospects who could still be available when the Jazz pick at 23. Many of them project to be in the Jazz’s draft range, some would have to fall. But this is a draft that reminds me of 2013 when the two best players — All-NBA imports Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert — were drafted outside of the lottery. It could get crazy.

This week we’ll start with a group of bigs in the order I would rank them as prospects for the Jazz.

Aleksej Pokuševski – Serbia (Olympiacos)

DOB: December 26, 2001 (18)   Height: 7’0″   Wingspan: 7’3″ Weight: 201 lbs  Agency: Wasserman Media Group

Accolades: N/A

2020 averages (All Leagues): 9.9 points, 2.8 assists, 7.3 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.7 blocks, .321 3P%, .783 FT%, .517 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (13), Ringer (15), B/R (13), SI (21) , ESPN (19)

Photo from EuroLeague Basketball

Aleksej Pokuševski (Poku) is the youngest player in the 2020 draft and one of the most intriguing prospects. There’s a non-zero chance Poku will be the best player in this draft and, to me, he is a clear lottery talent. A 7-footer who plays for Olympiacos in the EuroLeague, Poku doesn’t turn 19 until December. He is very skinny and will likely struggle against NBA athletes if he isn’t able to add some weight, a problem that many thin players from Europe have not been able to overcome in the NBA. But his rare combination of skills makes him worth the gamble that he can thrive in the NBA. Poku has a smooth stroke and a lot of confidence in his game. Although his 3P% isn’t great, there is reason to be optimistic that he can improve his accuracy, especially with better shot selection. Poku isn’t afraid to let it fly, averaging more than 4 3PA/G in 2019-20.

Poku is a high-level passer and ball-handler with great vision, especially for a 7-footer. He’s also a solid spot blocker, averaging over 2 blocks per game. At his young age, he doesn’t always make the best decisions and he has lapses on defense but when he’s locked in, you can see that he has good instincts and can play shut-down defense. His guard skills are elite for a 7-footer and Poku is a rare big who could thrive running either side of a pick and roll.

Poku will take time to develop in the NBA, but his upside is sky-high. There’s a low chance he falls as low as 23 on draft night but if he does, the Jazz should absolutely take a gamble on Poku.

Jalen Smith – Maryland (Sophomore)

DOB: March 6, 2000 (20)   Height: 6’10”   Wingspan: 7’2″ Weight: 225 lbs  Agency: TNG Basketball

Accolades: 3rd Team All-American, 1st Team All-Big Ten, Big Ten All Defense 

2020 averages (NCAA): 15.5 points, .8 assists, 8.6 rebounds, .7 steals, 2.4 blocks, .368 3P%, .750 FT%, .626 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (27), Ringer (25), B/R (21), SI (31) , ESPN (20)

Photo by Alexander Jonesi CC BY-SA 2.0

Every year I have a draft crush. A player who I just fall in love with for the Jazz and can’t fully explain why. Last year it was Grant Williams, who played a key role in the Celtics’ rotation this season; in 2018 it was Troy Brown, Jr. who started to show his potential with the Wizards in the bubble; and you can call me a liar, but in 2017 it was a guard out of Louisville named Donovan Mitchell. 

So who is that crush this year? Maryland Sophomore Jalen Smith. Smith immediately provides two things the Jazz seemed to be missing this post-season: size and athleticism. Smith is an athlete with great speed and jumping. He also has a smooth jumpshot and real NBA range. He’s also a solid defender, averaging 2.4 blocks per game and earning Big Ten All-Defense honors. He can defend in the post and is capable of switching onto perimeter players as well.

Despite all the positives, there’s a reason why there’s a decent chance Smith will be available when the Jazz pick. His decision-making is often poor and he does not have great playmaking chops. He can be turnover prone (1.7/game in 2020) and struggles to read defenses. Despite these weaknesses, I think the Jazz development staff can help him read the game better and develop into a solid rotation player in the NBA. Or maybe I just have pleasant memories of other NBA bigs who wore goggles like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Horace Grant and, of course, Thurl Bailey. 

Xavier Tillman – Michigan State (Junior)

DOB: January 12, 1999 (21)   Height: 6’8″   Wingspan: 7’1″ Weight: 245 lbs  Agency: Priority Sports & Entertainment

Accolades: 2nd Team All-Big Ten, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year

2020 averages (NCAA): 13.7 points, 3.0 assists, 10.3 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 2.1 blocks, .260 3P%, .667 FT%, .593 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (24), Ringer (44), B/R (23), SI (26) , ESPN (40)

Photo by Alexander Jonesi CC BY-SA 2.0

From one stand-out Big Ten performer to another, Xavier Tillman is somebody who should definitely be in consideration for the Jazz if he’s still on the board at 23. In 2020, Tillman posted the highest PIPM (8.22) in the NCAA. For his college career, he is a top-ten player in NCAA history in BPM. Defensively, Tillman is an ideal small-ball 5 prospect. Tillman has great defensive instincts and is a capable perimeter defender. Despite being only 6’8″, Tillman’s defensive IQ and 7’1″ wingspan helped him be the primary defender on some very good Big Ten centers. Tillman compares favorably with the Rockets’ P.J. Tucker.

On offense, Tillman has amazing vision and passing chops. He understands the pick and roll and can thrive playing in it. His understanding of the game bolsters both his offense and his defense. Unfortunately, he can’t shoot. His .260 3P% came on relatively high volume at 1.6 attempts per game so his poor shooting cannot be attributed to just a small sample size and his .667 FT% also shows a lack of a smooth shooting stroke. He has a stiff motion on his shot and for him to develop into an outside threat would require a reworking of his jumper. Tillman also is not the best finisher at the rim.

The Lakers’ size may have many teams re-thinking the recent trend toward small-ball, but there is still a lot of value in having a capable small-ball center on the roster. Tillman could fulfill that role for the Jazz and will likely be a rotation contributor in the NBA for whichever team selects him. Despite his poor shooting and finishing, Tillman’s defense and basketball IQ make him an intriguing prospect. I disagree with the big boards that have him listed in the 2nd-round and think he will be a steal if he falls anywhere near that low. 

Killian Tillie – Gonzaga (Senior)

DOB: March 5, 1998 (22)   Height: 6’10”   Wingspan: 6’11” Weight: 220 lbs   Agency: Priority Sports & Entertainment

Accolades: First Team All-WCC

2020 averages (NCAA): 13.6 points, 1.9 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, .8 blocks, .400 3P%, .726 FT%, .630 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (39), Ringer (37), B/R (33), SI (49) , ESPN (53)

The “other” Killian in this draft is also a promising prospect. I’ve been a fan of Tillie’s since he first arrived at Gonzaga and, if healthy, I think he will have a long career as a rotation-level NBA player. Plus, Tillie has a lot of potential connections with the Jazz: a native of France, it might be nice for Gobert to have a fellow countryman join him on the team; if the Jazz intend to keep Nigel Williams-Goss on the roster, he and Tillie were teammates during the 2016-17 NCAA season; and Tillie’s agency, Priority Sports, is Mark Bartelstein’s agency. The Jazz have had a long relationship with Bartelstein and his clients, including Joe Ingles, notwithstanding any bad taste left from Gordon Hayward’s departure.

Unlike many players featured on this list, Tillie was not ever the star player during his time with the Bulldogs. Instead, he is already accustomed to being a role player, which is what any player drafted in the 20s should expect in the NBA. Tillie also stands out from others featured in this post in terms of position as he would primarily play the 4 in today’s NBA. A high-level shooter (.444 3P% over 4 years at Gonzaga), I prefer Tillie’s upside to the players listed below but there is significant concern about his health that quite reasonably may give teams pause before drafting him. Unfortunately, Tillie missed a lot of time due to lower body injuries – a partially torn ligament in his right foot, a hip pointer, multiple sprained ankles and a knee surgery all sidelined him during his time at Gonzaga.

In terms of his play, Tillie’s shot is the aspect of his game that most stands out. He can play the pick and pop extremely well (.429 on pick and pop 3s in 2020) and is also a high-level catch and shoot player (.385 on catch and shoot 3s in 2020) with NBA range. Tillie has a smooth, Kevin Love-esque stroke. Tillie also has decent guard skills. He is able to burst past weak closeouts and finish at the rim. Tillie has great touch with his right and knows how to finish off the glass. He has good timing on his catch when rolling to the rim. 

Tillie is a solid defender who knows the game well and is capable of fitting into almost any defensive scheme. He could anchor as a rim protector and is also pretty switchable onto the perimeter, choosing good angles to defend. He is a solid weak-side shot blocker.

Tillie’s weaknesses come from his lack of athleticism. He isn’t quick on his feet and lacks explosiveness. His lack of speed and ability to move his hips makes him a weak transition defender. He also is very right-hand dominant. He hesitates to use his left and that makes him predictable on offense. He can also be foul prone and get caught as he tends to leave his feet when he shouldn’t, allowing opposing players to effectively shot fake and grab offensive boards.

Despite his injury history and lack of athleticism, the Jazz could really use a stretch four like Tillie who provides great spacing on the outside and solid defense. I think most analysts are underrating Tillie’s upside.

Zeke Nnaji – Arizona (Freshman)

DOB: January 9, 2001 (19)   Height: 6’11”   Wingspan: 7’1″ Weight: 240 lbs   Agency: Pensack Sports Management

Accolades: First Team All-Pac-12, Pac-12 Freshman of the Year

2020 averages (NCAA): 16.1 points, .8 assists, 8.6 rebounds, .7 steals, .9 blocks, .294 3P%, .760 FT%, .630 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (36), Ringer (45), B/R (44), SI (44) , ESPN (35)

Photo by Ron Sellers CC BY-SA 2.0

A lot of draft analysts don’t have Nnaji as a first-round talent but he is at least worth a look if the Jazz are wanting to draft a big. Nnaji is another big athlete with great bounce and speed. Nnaji also has a smooth looking jumper with a high release that makes him stand out as a potential pick-and-pop threat despite his relatively low .294 3P%. Unlike Tillman, Nnaji was not a high-volume shooter from range and preferred to shoot from the mid-range. He would need to work to extend his range but he may be able to do so and has shown the capacity to shoot off of a back-pedal. Nnaji is also an excellent offensive rebounder with great hands, he gets 50-50 balls and has a good eye for putbacks. He’s also a solid finisher and dunker. He is patient and knows how to use fakes in the paint and is a two-foot jumper.

Unfortunately, Nnaji may lack the most vital skill for a modern NBA center; he is a poor rim protector. He only averaged 0.9 blocks per game, low for a starting center. He’s often late on rotations in help defense and late at contesting shots, which often led to goaltending calls against him. When defending smaller players, he doesnt’ always take advantage of his length and chooses poor angles for defending. Beyond his defensive weaknesses, he also had a very poor AST/TO ratio of .39. While Nnaji projects to be available for the Jazz at 23 and his offensive skills are compelling, there will likely be better options available.

Isaiah Stewart – Washington (Freshman)

DOB: May 22, 2001 (19)   Height: 6’9″   Wingspan: 7’4″ Weight: 240 lbs  Agency: Roc Nation

Accolades: First Team All-Pac-12, Naismith Prep Player of the Year (2019)

2020 averages (All Leagues): 17.0 points, .8 assists, 8.8 rebounds, .5 steals, 2.1 blocks, .250 3P%, .774 FT%, .629 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (26), Ringer (28), B/R (49), SI (25) , ESPN (27)

Photo by The Hoosier CC BY-SA 2.0

The general consensus on Isaiah Stewart is higher than my opinion. He’s been mocked to the Jazz by a few mock drafts, so he’s definitely worth evaluating here as the major authors of mock drafts often have sources telling them what teams are thinking. Stewart is a very strong, powerful player with incredible length. While he is only 6’9″ his 7’4″ wingspan makes him more than capable of playing center. He’s a high-level interior scorer with great motor. One thing that the Jazz may love about Stewart is his work ethic, he sprints the floor and just plain out hustles a lot of other players. With his incredible length he’s able to swallow up shots and he was effective at blocking both in the low and high post while at Washington. And he is effective at using his strength to finish, hitting on 58% of his shots at the rim. He’s also got decent hands and can catch difficult passes.

That said, Stewart has a lot of flaws. He shot only .250 3P%. His jumper doesn’t look broken but it’s not fluid and he shows hesitation when shooting from outside. He also has a strange tic where he often needs to double tap his toe before releasing a shot. Stewart’s strength and motor can be weaknesses, he is full-steam ahead and tends to get into bully ball, which results in him getting called for the charge often. He also has poor footwork, he shuffles his feet, switches his pivot foot and sometimes leaves his feet with nowhere to go, which leads to turnovers. Finally, Stewart is a horizontal athlete who struggles vertically. He doesn’t have great vertical athleticism which leaves his game very ground bound and, ultimately, limits his ceiling. I don’t think he’s an NBA center but those who are higher on him believe he could develop the skills to compliment his natural length and power. I’ve seen some compare him to Derrick Favors, but I don’t agree with that assessment.

Udoka Azubuike – Kansas (Senior)

DOB: September 17, 1999 (21)  Height: 7’0″   Wingspan: 7’7″ Weight: 270 lbs  Agency: Priority Sports & Entertainment

Accolades: Second Team All-American, NABC Defensive Player of the Year, Big 12 Player of the Year, NCAA All-time FG% record

2020 averages (All Leagues): 13.7 points, .9 assists, 10.5 rebounds, .5 steals, 2.6 blocks, .N/A 3P%, .441 FT%, .685 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (50), Ringer (50), B/R (unranked), SI (40) , ESPN (31)

Udoka Azubuike is a long, strong, rim-diving, lob-finishing, rim-protecting old school big. He will not stretch the floor. He will not shoot outside the paint (he took three total jump shots in four years at Kansas). He can’t handle the ball and isn’t a good passer. But he’s long, with a 7’7″ wingspan, and he knows how to use his length. He is an elite pick and roll defender in drop coverage and a great shot blocker. When he rolls to the rim, he finishes strong, shooting .843 FG% at the rim. He can catch lobs even when they’re thrown out of his zone, you throw it to him, he’ll get it. He has some crazy dunk finishes. Azubuike was the National Association of Basketball Coaches’ Defensive Player of the Year for a reason.

Does he sound like anybody Jazz fans are familiar with? Azubuike will almost certainly be available at 23 and the Jazz probably shouldn’t take him there because he will likely fall into the second round. But if the Jazz buy into the second round, having a back-up behind Rudy Gobert who plays such a similar game would make the Jazz less versatile but more consistent. Azubuike would allow perimeter players to anticipate passes and recover from mistakes in the same way Gobert does.

Azubuike also has a lot of the same weaknesses, only worse. He is an atrocious free throw shooter (.441 FT%). His shot looks broken and I would seriously try to convince him to shoot Rick Barry style if drafted. He throws bad and lazy outlet passes. He has a tendency to lift his pivot foot. He is not switchable and struggles to defend shooting bigs.

I really like Azubuike as a potential Gobert-style player. In catch-all metrics, Azubuike was one of the best NCAA players in 2020. But he’s the kind of old-school center who seems to be fading out of today’s NBA.