Jazz Draft Watch Part III: Wings on the Run

Utah State’s own Sam Merrill is a potential late second rounder in next week’s NBA draft. (Photo via utahstateaggies.com)

In the past few weeks I’ve previewed potential draft picks for the Jazz from among the bigs and the guards in this draft class. With a just under a week to go before draft night, reports from Jazz insiders lead me to believe that the Jazz are more likely than not going to go with a wing in this draft. For example, Josh Green recently worked out for the Jazz and was said to impress the front office and a lot of draft experts have also mentioned Jaden McDaniels as a potential high-upside pick for the team. For other names rumored to be on the Jazz big board, like Desmond Bane, Zeke Nnaji and Xavier Tillman go back and look at the previews for guards and bigs.

As with the earlier player profiles, prospects are listed here in the order of my personal ranking. 

Josh Green – Arizona (Freshman)

DOB: November 16, 2000 (19)   Height: 6’6″   Wingspan: 6’10” Weight: 210 lbs  Agency: CAA

Accolades: N/A

2020 averages (NCAA): 12.0 points, 2.6 assists, 4.6 rebounds, 1.5 steals, .4 blocks, .361 3P%, .780 FT%, .528 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (29), Ringer (25), B/R (12), SI (28) , ESPN (21)

Photo by Ron Sellers CC BY 2.0

Athletic 3&D wings are one of the most sought after player types in the modern NBA so it’s a little bit surprising that Josh Green out of Arizona isn’t higher on draft boards. Green is fast and loves to run, often scoring in transition. He also has good burst and is a good jumper. He’s a good catch-and-shoot shooter with decent range and good form, shooting .375 3P% on catch-and-shoot opportunities. He’s a solid on-ball defender who is active and shows a lot of potential at shutting down iso situation. He knows how to use his length and has quick hands. He gets a high number of deflections and is able to swipe gaps in passing lanes to get steals He’s also decent at getting some shot blocks using his length. At 6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan he projects to be a switchable defender and has the raw tools to improve defensively. Although he has a tendency to fall asleep and can lose his man, he’s mostly solid as an off-ball defender too.

Unfortunately, Green struggles as a finisher and he is not a skilled shooter when moving. When his feet are set, he shoots really well. When coming off screens or catching on the move, his lower body mechanics throw things off and he often misses; he only shot 5/20 coming off of screens. He shoots with his right even when driving with his left and has a tendency to avoid contact. 

Green also has some injury concerns as he had to undergo surgery for a torn labrum in his left shoulder in 2019. Given his solid on-ball and help defense with a pretty good jumper, Green has a high floor. There’s a good chance he’s a rotation quality 3&D wing in the NBA, which is a very solid return on the average 23rd pick in the draft.

Saddiq Bey – Villanova (Sophomore)

DOB: April 9, 1999 (21)   Height: 6’8″   Wingspan: 6’10” Weight: 216 lbs  Agency: Priority Sports

Accolades: Julius Erving Award (Best Small-Forward), First Team All-Big East, AP Honorable Mention All-American

2020 averages (NCAA): 16.1 points, 2.4 assists, 4.7 rebounds, .8 steals, .4 blocks, .451 3P%, .769 FT%, .608 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (15), Ringer (18), B/R (26), SI (16) , ESPN (17)

Villanova’s Saddiq Bey

Villanova has produced a lot of solid NBA players. Jay Wright does a great job of teaching fundamentals and solid defensive concepts and that has translated well to the NBA. Bey is in a similar mold and should have a solid NBA career, but his lack of quickness and strength mean that he likely won’t ever be a star. In this draft, especially in the 20s, finding a solid rotational wing would be great. If Bey ends up falling to 23, the Jazz will likely seriously consider him. He’s a solid point of attack defender with sound understanding and awareness in team defense. He didn’t get a lot of steals or blocks, but he uses his length effectively to tip passes and alter shots. Bey is also showed a significant improvement in his jump shot last year, averaging .451 from 3, including .511 on catch-and-shoot pull-up jumpers and .533 coming off screens. Bey has also shown some flashes of playmaking skills and making reads in the pick-and-roll.

Bey is not an elite athlete though. He lacks burst and quickness, often struggling to get past his man. His lack of lateral quickness can allow those he’s defending to burst past him. He also needs to increase his strength as he struggles to finish through contact and can be bullied by bigs. He has a tendency to over-dribble and overthink on offense and suffered from poor shot selection, often taking the first available shot. 

For a team like the Jazz, an NBA-ready 3&D player like Bey could fit right in. He has some holes in his game but a lot of those come from playing a very different role at Villanova than he would be expected to play in the NBA. Good coaching and development combined with NBA spacing and teammates should hopefully help Bey develop into an NBA-quality wing.

Aaron Nesmith – Vanderbilt (Sophomore)

DOB: October 16, 1999 (21)   Height: 6’6″   Wingspan: 6’10” Weight: 213 lbs  Agency: Excel Sports

Accolades: N/A

2020 averages (NCAA): 23.0 points, .9 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.4 steals, .9 blocks, .522 3P%, .825 FT%, .685 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (17), Ringer (19), B/R (29), SI (14) , ESPN (13)

Vandy’s Aaron Nesmith

Nesmith is one of the best shooters in this draft. He is a great coming off screens and knows how to play NBA style screen-actions. He made 25/49 shots from range coming off screens last year. He averaged .542 3P% in catch-and-shoot situations. He has great mechanics and deep range that should easily extend to the NBA 3. Because of his elite shooting, his gravity on offense helped to get teammates open regularly. He struggles more shooting off the dribble but is an elite shooter. He also knows his role is as a shooting specialist. His drives to the rim mostly came from attacking close-outs and he rarely took shots inside the 3 that weren’t at the rim.

Nesmith is a shooting specialist. He’s not a great ball-handler and has a very weak left-hand. He’s below average at finishing. He isn’t a great athlete and lacks a quick first step and vertical burst. He’s not a great playmaker and had a negative assist to turnover ration in college. He’s not a great on-ball defender. He stands up too much, doesn’t have fluid hips and struggles to recover when he gets beat. His lack of athleticism hurts him and he may struggle against players who are around his size.

It’s possible that a team’s development staff can fine tune Nesmith’s weaknesses so they’re not so glaring. He has potential to improve his finishing and although he’s weak in 1-on-1 situations, his team defense isn’t bad. With the 23rd pick, the Jazz probably aren’t finding anything better than a valuable role player and if Nesmith falls that low, he knows his role is as an elite shooter, which happens to be quite valuable in today’s NBA.

Nate Hinton – Houston (Sophomore)

DOB: June 8, 1999 (21)   Height: 6’5″   Wingspan: 6’9″ Weight: 210 lbs  Agency: Tallent Agency

Accolades: Second Team All-AAC

2020 averages (NCAA): 10.6 points, 2.0 assists, 8.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, .2 blocks, .387 3P%, .756 FT%, .540 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (57), Ringer (unranked), B/R (48), SI (66) , ESPN (57)

Photo by Gamecock Central CC BY 2.0

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Nate Hinton should be a first round pick in this draft despite being ranked by most experts as going late in the 2nd or undrafted. When you watch Hinton’s highlights you realize one thing, he is everywhere. Hinton is an aggressive, active defender. He jumps lanes and fights for every ball. He’s the kind of hustle player that every team could use more of. He is great on close outs and recovers quickly. As a big guard/small wing, Hinton could provide a much needed boost to the Jazz’s backcourt defense. His activeness extends to rebounding, where he averaged 8.7 rebounds as a wing. There are a lot of bigs who don’t rebound like that. 

Hinton is also a good shooter who projects to be able to hit at or above league average on catch-and-shoot opportunities. He has a nice quick trigger release and decent touch. His mechanics and form are solid. Given his high-level defense and hustle combined with his proficiency at range, Hinton could turn out to be a hidden gem of a 3&D wing.

He isn’t a high-level ball-handler or play-maker. His athleticism doesn’t jump off the page. But he’s not bad at those things either. He can make basic reads and handle the ball in a pinch. As a jack of all trades type player who works his tail off and knows how to fill a role on a team, in my opinion Hinton should be much higher on teams’ draft boards. The Jazz are unlikely to draft Hinton in the first and there’s a chance he’s available even late in the 2nd, he would be a great pick-up for the Jazz if they can get buy into the 2nd or sign him as an undrafted free agent.

Robert Woodard II- Mississippi State (Sophomore)

DOB: September 22, 1999 (21)   Height: 6’7″   Wingspan: 7’2″ Weight: 230 lbs  Agency: Priority Sports

Accolades: N/A

2020 averages (NCAA): 11.4 points, 1.3 assists, 6.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks, .429 3P%, .641 FT%, .564 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (28), Ringer (22), B/R (35), SI (41) , ESPN (26)

Photo by Chris Gillespie CC BY 2.0

Robert Woodard is a player whose stock seems to be rising. He is incredibly long with a wingspan of 7’2″ compared to his 6’7″ height. He knows how to use his length well and has the tools to be a very good defender. He needs to improve on his understanding of team defense concepts but it feels like his tools should translate to solid defense at the pro level. He also made major strides in his jumper from his freshman to sophomore year, going from .273 to .429 3P% and there is good reason to believe the improvement will last. He has a long, fluid stroke with a high release. It’s a bit slow and he struggles shooting with movement, but he projects to be a very solid 3&D style wing in the NBA.

Woodard is also a promising finisher with solid shooting percentage at the rim. He loves to run in transition and can really get above the rim when he does. Due to his size and length, he can also probably defend multiple positions from the 2 to the 4. He’s not a playmaker or ball-handler but that’s not what he would be expected to do in the NBA. I think if Woodard lasts to 23, he would be a solid plug-and-play wing for the Jazz.

Tyler Bey – Colorado (Junior)

DOB: February 10, 1998 (22)   Height: 6’7″   Wingspan: 7’1″   Weight: 218 lbs   Agency: Pensack Sports Management

Accolades: Second Team All-Pac-12, Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year

2020 averages (NCAA): 13.8 points, 1.5 assists, 9.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 1.2 blocks, .419 3P%, .743 FT%, .611 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (54), Ringer (36), B/R (31), SI (31), ESPN (28)

Photo by Ron Sellers CC BY 2.0

Do you want to see some defense? Tyler Bey is one of the best defenders in this draft and given his size, length and skill he might be able to guard any position on the court. He showed flashes of being able to defend small guards while at Colorado and regularly played in the post. He can defend everywhere and anybody. He blocks jumpers and rim protects. He understands team and on-ball defense. He recovers well and is effective closing out against jump shooters. He is great in isolation situations, opponents were only 3/15 against him in iso situations last year. He also protects the rim with players shooting .256 FG% when he is the primary defender at the rim. While playing aggressive defense, Bey was still very good at avoiding fouls. 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks per game as a wing are great defensive stats and he’s a high level rebounder, averaging 9.0 rebounds per game. For his defense alone, Tyler Bey should be drafted.

If you just look at his very respectable .419 3P% from last year and combine it with his elite defense, Bey seems like he should be several spots higher on big boards as a very promising 3&D prospect. Unfortunately, that .419 3P% is on very low volume, Bey averaged only one 3-point attempt per game. His shot mechanics aren’t great and his 3P% during his freshman and sophomore years was ugly albeit on even lower volume. His shot is also concerning because he was inconsistent on his mid-range jumper and he did not extend his range much behind the college line. His .743 FT% indicates that he has the shooting touch that may translate to him being able to shoot from NBA range but watching Bey reminds me a lot of watching Royce O’Neale – even if he can hit the shots, he often shies away from taking them. When attacking the rim, Bey is a respectable finisher. He knows how to use his length and is able to finish through contact. He also has a decent post game and is patient when handling the ball in the post.

Bey is not a high-level passer or ball-handler. He has a tendency to make lazy passes, especially in the back court that lead to turnovers and quick transition buckets for opponents. He has poor footwork that can often lead to travel calls. His assist-to-turnover ratio during his sophomore and junior years at Colorado was a frightening 69:146.

I love Bey’s defense but as a low-volume shooter who won’t be handling the ball, it’s unclear whether he can offer much, if anything, on offense at the NBA level. 

Elijah Hughes – Syracuse (Junior)

DOB: March 10, 1998 (22)   Height: 6’6″   Wingspan: 6’8″ Weight: 215 lbs  Agency: Excel Sports

Accolades: First Team All-ACC

2020 averages (NCAA): 19.0 points, 3.4 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.2 steals, .8 blocks, .342 3P%, .813 FT%, .561 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (30), Ringer (38), B/R (44), SI (53) , ESPN (44)

Photo by SneakinDeacon CC BY-SA 2.0

The Syracuse Orange have had a lot of success under Jim Boeheim, including an NCAA title back in 2003, but Syracuse has not produced a lot of quality NBA players. Even with zone defense becoming more common in the NBA, it’s hard to evaluate how well Syracuse players will be able to defend when they make the leap. Can Elijah Hughes join Jerami Grant in bucking the trend of Syracuse players disappointing once they make the league?

He’s an intriguing prospect. A solid secondary play-maker, he makes sound reads and has some solid pass-making ability. He loves to make flashy passes, including some highlight worthy no-look passes. He’s also not terrible as a ball-handler and could work out as a potential multi-tool wing. His .813 FT% and smooth form bode well for his shot translating to the NBA and he seems to have good range. He knows how to move without the ball and his shot seems solid in multiple situations: off the bounce, catch and shoot, step-back, off screens and off DHO. Despite his underlying skills, Hughes isn’t a great decision maker. He turns the ball over a lot, is often late on reads and over penetrates. He is not a good finisher and lacks athleticism. 

It’s difficult to know how well Hughes’ defense can translate to the NBA as Syracuse plays zone defense. He seems good on close-outs and has shown good timing as a shot blocker. He seems to have good help instincts in team defense. But whether what worked okay for Hughes in Syracuse’s zone will work in the NBA is to be determined.

Still, with decent size and skill, Hughes could be a decent draft pick.

Jaden McDaniels – Washington (Freshman)

DOB: September 29, 2000 (2o)   Height: 6’9″   Wingspan: 6’11” Weight: 200 lbs  Agency: BDA Sports

Accolades: N/A

2020 averages (NCAA): 13.0 points, 2.1 assists, 5.8 rebounds, .8 steals, 1.4 blocks, .339 3P%, .763 FT%, .515 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (44), Ringer (26), B/R (30), SI (23) , ESPN (23)

Photo by Ron Sellers CC BY 2.0

Jaden McDaniels is a player whose name has come up with the Jazz a few times but any team that decides to draft McDaniels is betting on a heretofore unrealized upside. If you watched only McDaniels’ highlights, you can see the allure. He has good height and length for a wing and his shot looks like it might translate to the NBA (although his .339 3P% is not great). He’s also a good athlete with great speed and vertical. He shows promise as a potential iso scorer, he’s comfortable in off-the-bounce and like taking transition 3s. He has shown himself to be a capable ball handler and has shown flashes of strong on-ball defense using his length well. Because of his length and some good instincts, he may even become a good rim protector. If he reaches his ceiling, he has star potential. 

That being said, he has really poor awareness. He doesn’t see open teammates, doesn’t recognize clock situation and has poor shot selection. He shoots way too much from mid-range without being particularly proficient at it. He led the Pac-12 in player fouls. His first, second and third instinct is to shoot. When he handles the ball, he has a strong tendency to waste dribbles without going anywhere and his finishing at the rim is unremarkable.  His lack of awareness also results in a high level of turnovers, he was second in the Pac-12 in turnovers and has a 65:100 assist-to-turnover ration. He also isn’t a good passer and needs to improve his footwork. Finally, like many other wiry wings, McDaniels needs to add strength and weight to be able to hang with NBA wings.

There are a lot of areas where McDaniels needs to improve, but if the whole package comes together I can understand why he’s so appealing. Given the overall profile, he doesn’t seem like the kind of player the Jazz front office typically prefers and would only be the pick if they decide to make a high-risk/high-reward move.

Leandro Bolmaro – FC Barcelona (Argentina)

DOB: September 11, 2000 (20)   Height: 6’7″   Wingspan: 6’9″ Weight: 200 lbs  Agency: Xpheres Basketball

Accolades: N/A

2020 averages (All Leagues): 8.0 points, 2.5 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals, .1 blocks, .293 3P%, .711 FT%, .517 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (31), Ringer (23), B/R (33), SI (25) , ESPN (22)

Argentine wing Leandro Bolmaro

Bolmaro is a point-forward much in the same style as Joe Ingles. He sees the floor incredibly well and is a great playmaker. He’s a strong ball-handler and has a myriad of tricks in his passing game. He loves to run the floor and move in transition and has great vision. He can be turnover prone but sees the open man and makes great reads. He’s a good defender too, with good footwork and active hands. He knows how to interrupt passing lanes and he’s able to recover well even when beaten off-dribble. He is also a solid team defender, despite some occasional lapses. 

Unfortunately, unlike Joe Ingles, Bolmaro is bad at shooting the basketball. He averaged .293 3P% across all leagues in 2019-20. His season stats so far in 2020-21 don’t show any improvement as he has averaged .167 3P% in 14 games so far. Big playmaking wings have a lot of value in today’s NBA, but that value declines significantly if they can’t hit an outside jumper. To make it in the NBA, Bolmaro will need to add strength and weight and at least a passable jump shot. I don’t think developing a jumper is as easy as many project.

There’s a lot to like in Leandro Bolmaro’s game but he’s a draft-and-stash prospect and will be in Europe for at least another year, possibly two. So for a team like the Jazz to take him in this draft they would have to be willing to wait and I’m not sure the Jazz are. With that being said, there is a lot to like in Bolmaro’s game. 

Sam Merrill – Utah State (Senior)

DOB: May 6, 1996 (24)   Height: 6’5″   Wingspan: unlisted Weight: 205 lbs  Agency: Priority Sports

Accolades: First Team All-Mountain West, Mountain West Tournament MVP

2020 averages (NCAA): 19.7 points, 3.9 assists, 4.1 rebounds, .9 steals, .1 blocks, .410 3P%, .893 FT%, .625 TS%

Big Board rankings: Athletic (37), Ringer (unranked), B/R (46), SI (49) , ESPN (58)

Local product Sam Merrill

Sam Merrill isn’t just on this list because he was born and raised in Utah (Bountiful) and starred for an in-state college for four years. If he were younger, Merrill would be a lock to be drafted but his age and lack of athleticism have made it so it is an open question whether he will be drafted and, if he is, it will most likely be in the 2nd round. Even without his local ties, I think a lot of teams will regret passing on Merrill in the draft.

In terms of draft prospects, 24 years old is ancient and Sam Merrill does not have high-end athleticism. He is only a moderately capable defender and reportedly has a negative wingspan. But Sam Merrill is a knock-down shooter with the size to play on the wings. He is also a smart, capable playmaker with good vision who understands principle of the pick-and-roll and team defense. And while he lacks a mid-range game or a decent floater, he is capable of finishing at the rim, averaging .526 at the rim during his senior year in Logan.

His .625 TS% is only behind Aaron Nesmith among players highlighted in this piece. He averaged .451, .464, .376 and .410 3P% during his time at Utah State on high volume and his career FT% of .893 confirms his shooting touch, if there was any doubt about his consistency. He has great form and quick release. His jumper is solid in pull-up, catch-and-shoot, step-back, DHO and coming off screens. He knows how to move off ball and create space. His defense isn’t bad, although he tends to lose lateral quickness by standing too straight on defense. Although the sample size is very small, opponents only shot 1/13 against him when defending in isolation situations last year.

6’5″ wings who can shoot over .400 3P% don’t grow on trees. Don’t let his age scare you off, if the Jazz can buy into the late 2nd round or sign him as an undrafted free agent, Sam Merrill is worth a look to add high-end shooting off the bench.