Jazz-Nuggets Regular Season Review: Nothing Normal About This Year’s Three Matchups

The three Jazz-Nuggets games this season have been far from typical affairs. (Melissa Majchrzak vía espn.com)

In anticipation of the Utah Jazz impending matchup against the Denver Nuggets, I spent time watching the teams’ regular season games this week with the intention of talking about rotations and key things to watch. Instead, I ended up with one question: was there a normal game in the series this season?

Answer: not really.

January 30: Nuggets 106, Jazz 100 in Denver

This game came during one of the most important stretches in the season, and perhaps one of the most disappointing.

To set the stage, after some early struggles where Utah essentially looked like a .500 team (13-11 after 24 games, to be exact), the Jazz had rattled off 19 wins in their last 21 games. Even though the upcoming schedule looked like a Western Conference gauntlet, things were looking pretty good when the Jazz awoke on Sunday, January 26, with a 32-13 record.

Then came the tragic news that Kobe Bryant and his fellow passengers had died in a helicopter crash, which impacted the entire league. While every team in the league was dealing with that news, the Jazz, coincidentally or not, started struggling beginning the very next game. They lost at home the next night to a Houston Rockets team that was playing without James Harden or Russell Westbrook, then started a road trip in San Antonio, where they lost again to the Spurs without LeMarcus Aldridge.

A two-game losing streak isn’t the end of the world, but as if to increase the degree of difficulty of the first meeting with the Nuggets, the Jazz faced them the night after the Spurs game, on the second half of a back-to-back. Injuries played a role as well. The Nuggets played this game without three starters in Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, and Paul Millsap, while the Jazz were missing Mike Conley.

Finally, as if one more distraction was needed, just hours before the game, Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were revealed as reserves for the All-Star Game. In contrast to the earlier Kobe Bryant news that may or may not have impacted the Jazz, this was at least good news, but first time All-Stars often find a figurative target painted on their backs in the short term, and are on the receiving end of opponents’ best efforts, both offensively and defensively.

On this night in January, Gobert acquitted himself well, although Jokic probably won the matchup slightly. Mitchell, on the other hand, made only one field goal on twelve attempts, scored only four points, and had a team worst +/- of minus-9. In the absence of any scoring touch, he rebounded and passed well, but it was a disappointing game for him.

The star of the game for the Jazz was Jordan Clarkson, who went 13-for-22 and 7-for-12 from three point range, scoring 37 points. Twice in the final two minutes he brought the Jazz within three points, but in the end the Nuggets prevailed.

As far as the predictive value of this game, I have to ask myself:

• If the Jazz were affected by the death of Kobe Bryant, will they be in August? No.
• If the new All-Stars had a case of butterflies or too much energy or were just outplayed on announcement night, will that happen again in August? No.
• Will this game be a back-to-back for the Jazz, but not the Nuggets? Clearly not.
• Will all the same players miss this game? That one is TBD.
• Will Mitchell have his worst offensive output of the entire season again? Probably not.
• Will Clarkson have his best? Sadly, also probably not.

Moving on, let’s see if there’s another game that more closely matches the conditions that will exist during the playoff series.

February 5: Nuggets 98, Jazz 95 in Salt Lake City

This game isn’t it.

Six days and two games later, the Jazz and Nuggets met again in Salt Lake City. The Jazz losing streak had grown from three games to four, but at this point in time, Denver looked like the prescribed cure for a losing streak.

The Nuggets were missing even more players, although only one who sat out the first game: former Jazz forward Paul Millsap. In the revolving door that was the Nuggets lineup, Denver was also missing Will Barton, Jerami Grant, and Michael Porter Jr.

The Nuggets were also disadvantaged from a travel standpoint. While the Jazz had been at home resting for three days, Denver had played at home the night before, traveled to Utah for the back-to-back, and had only seven players available for the game.

Besides being rested, the Jazz were healthy. The starters (Conley, Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles and Gobert) each played at least 30 minutes, with Clarkson and Royce O’Neale chipping in for 20-23 minutes each. Georges Niang and Tony Bradley rounded out the rotation.

This was about the closest thing to a sure thing that exists in the NBA.

Gobert played well, but his effort was eclipsed by Jokic’s Herculean outing, a triple double of 30 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists. Mitchell struggled again, managing only 18 points on 24 shots, but Harris, who had missed the first contest, couldn’t score from the field, finishing 0-for-13 from the field for five points.

In the end, with a nine-point lead with six minutes left in the game, and with all the odds in their favor due to Denver’s nearly non-existent bench, the Jazz fell apart. They turned the ball over six times, and missed seven of their last eight shots (two other shots resulted in free throws). The Nuggets took a one-point lead with 59 seconds left, then gave themselves a cushion they wouldn’t need with two free throws with five seconds left.

I already spoiled the ending, but this game has even less predictive value than the first meeting:

• The Nuggets will have more than seven players available.
• Nobody will be on a back-to-back.
• If Gary Harris plays, he is unlikely to be held without a basket.
• Mitchell, a 24 ppg scorer, is unlikely to be held under 20 points, although he has struggled to score across the three games.
• Although Jokic will be expected to shine, he’s also unlikely to completely dominate his matchup with the Jazz like he did this night with such limited help from his supporting cast.

That leaves one game to shed some light on what we might see in a playoff series.

August 8: Nuggets 134, Jazz 132 (2OT) in Orlando

Over six months later, the Jazz and Nuggets met again last week. All things considered, this might have been the most normal game of the bunch, which is saying something for a game that took place in the bubble during a pandemic.

Circumstances were undoubtedly strange during the NBA Restart, although by Utah’s sixth game and Denver’s fifth, the novelty had probably worn off a bit. The Jazz were missing forward Bojan Bogdanovic, as they will be for the remainder of the season, and the Nuggets were without Harris and Barton. Finally, while neither team was at a travel disadvantage, the Jazz were at a slight rest disadvantage. Utah had played the prior day, but four starters had been held out for various minor ailments or rest.

This game was recent, so a long review is probably unnecessary. The Jazz came out hot, racing to an 18-point lead late in the first half. The second half was an entirely different story. Utah seemingly forgot how to shoot, protect the ball, and basically play winning basketball. Aside from an early 0-2 deficit, the Jazz led the entire game until Denver regained the lead with 43 seconds remaining. Donovan Mitchell’s heroics eventually led to an overtime, and later to a second overtime. Eventually the magic wore out and the Jazz lost by two points.

What Did We Learn?

Nikola Jokic is a spectacular basketball player.

Rudy Gobert won’t be able to stop everything Jokic does, but will need to slow him as much as possible.

Donovan Mitchell struggled for the better part of three games, but exploded at the end of regulation in the third game and stayed hot during overtime.

Jamal Murray, who has hardly been mentioned so far, also averaged 27 ppg in the two game he played, and has proven to be a handful for the Jazz backcourt.

Besides that? Not much.

The Jazz will be more short-handed to start the series than they have been in any of the games so far, with Bogdanovic out for the season and Conley in Ohio to join his family after the birth of his son. The Nuggets are expected to take the court in Game 1 with the same lineup from last week, as Harris and Barton remain out.

This year’s series had almost no consistency, so it’s hard to tell how any of those games predict what will happen over the next four to seven games. Obviously the most recent game will be the most relevant, as Denver will play the more or less the same lineup to start the playoffs as they did earlier in August, and the same is true for the Jazz will with the exception of Conley, at least until he returns from Ohio.

The Jazz, who managed to cover for Bogdanovic’s absence in the bubble game, will now have to hope to get enough contributions from elsewhere on the roster to make up for Conley’s absence as well. If they can replicate last weekend’s performance — but add one more point in regulation, of course — they’d be in a position to claim a win. Without Conley, that will be easier said than done.