Jazz-Nuggets Preview: On Depth, Defense & What Utah Needs From Mitchell

Mitchell exploded down the stretch of the last Jazz-Nuggets matchup. (Garrett Ellwood via espn.com)

After kicking off the first bubble game when the season resumed, the Jazz will be the first to take the floor for the much-delayed 2020 playoffs on Monday at 11:30 a.m. MDT.

Hey, you made a typo. I think you mean p.m., not a.m.. And that’s gotta be an EST time, right?

No, you read that right. A weekday game at eleven thirty, ante meridiem, Mountain Time. Also, it is currently Daylight Saving Time; MDT. Every time I see “EST” or “MST” between March and November, I want to throw something.

Okay, fine, relax. Why is this game on in the middle of a workday? I kind of understood it for the seeding games, but the playoffs? Is this the equivalent of the annual Atlanta Hawks NBATV series?

It’s not ideal for Jazz fans! With only two courts to play on, even eight series at once caused some difficult scheduling. And I hate to say it, but Utah doesn’t draw a ton of national intrigue.

Hopefully you can take a day off—or at least a few hours—from your day job, or perhaps you’re able to prop open your phone or second (fourth?) screen while you write code, conduct research, or attend meetings that could have definitely been emails. If you’re a well-adjusted, normal adult like me, you’ll be starting your fifth cup of coffee by tipoff. That might quickly turn to another type of beverage for… less… well-adjusted adults before noon, but that’ll depend solely on Utah’s performance early in Game 1.

All right, I can get away with this for a game. Surely we’ll have better times later in the series.

Don’t get your hopes up. Games 2 and 3 are on Wednesday and Friday at 2:00 PM.

MST?

Sigh.

Whatever. Who are they playing?

The neighbors from across the Rocky Mountains, the Denver Nuggets. The Jazz didn’t try to win any of their last four games, seemingly with the goal of manipulating the standings to avoid the Houston Rockets in Round 1, which was always likely to result in a Nuggets series. My personal opinion is that Utah matches up significantly worse against the Nuggets than the Rockets; however, I certainly agree that a Nuggets series is far more interesting after two straight years of watching Jazz-Rockets playoff series.

We are mercifully reprieved of a bearded, nightclub-deprived trickster jumping into defenders game after game. We won’t be seeing Russell Westbrook’s snarls aimed at Utah’s direction. And a Houston matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder adds a fantastic, intriguing series to the Western Conference draw. And, frankly, the Nuggets are fun!

You’re right, I’m so sick of James Harden. But I don’t care how fun the Nuggets are. Are they good?

Lots of fans assign a bit of fool’s gold to the Nuggets (no pun intended, but I guess now it’s intended, since I didn’t delete it after noticing), after they barely squeaked by a flawed San Antonio Spurs team and lost to the relatively weak Portland Trail Blazers in the 2019 playoffs as a No. 2 seed. However, Denver returned with another high-seed regular season performance, and look to have a little more confidence this time around.

The Nuggets have great depth. They’ll play a ton of Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. Jokić is perhaps the best passing big man of all time, rebounds terrifically, and is willing and able to put the scoring load on his back if he needs to. He’s a first-team All-NBA talent, and you might see literally every single half-court possession go through him when he’s on the floor. Murray recently signed a $170 million extension, which shows his relative worth and potential as an offensively skilled point guard, but he’s prone to the occasional cold streaks (only 34.6% from three) and abuse on defense.

The Nuggets will open the series without their two wing starters, Gary Harris (hip strain) and Will Barton (knee soreness). Their injuries aren’t severe and they have been questionable since the start of the bubble seeding games. Their absence hasn’t necessarily been negative, though: Harris has had a disastrous offensive season (but was coming along just before the shutdown), and Barton can play a little recklessly and/or selfishly. More importantly, their injuries have left a truckload of minutes for Michael Porter Jr. to play.

MPJ has been a revelation. After being yanked in and out of the lineup all year despite showing promise, allegedly to help his “growth,” the 22 year-old, 6-foot-10 forward exploded over the Nuggets’ eight bubble games. He earned second-team All-Bubble—which is a real thing, I promise—while averaging 22 points with 55/42/93 shooting splits. His playability during the regular season was somewhat dependent on his still-developing defense, but his offensive skill has become so important that he has cemented his spot in the rotation. He may not start when Harris returns, but he’ll play 30 minutes per game regardless.

This is too many players to remember.

I know! Denver will have significant contributions from several sources. Jerami Grant at forward has provided a little more verve and Jokić chemistry than former Jazz favorite Paul Millsap in the bubble. Millsap has looked his advanced age recently, but he hasn’t been terrible and proved in last year’s playoffs that he has another gear to shift up to. Millsap will start, but don’t expect worse play when Grant subs in. Grant doesn’t have a quick release but shoots open threes with decent accuracy (38.9%), and you’ll see him play above the rim on both ends.

Torrey Craig plays the defensive ace role for Denver, and Monte Morris is a thoroughly capable point guard. Mason Plumlee carries a huge contract for his minutes, but is a luxury at backup center who passes and screens very well. P.J. Dozier should be the last man in Denver’s playoff rotation as a capable wing ballhandler and defender, but he doesn’t shoot well. Seven-foot-four rookie Bol Bol has been delightful to watch in the bubble in his first real NBA action, but he won’t be called into action unless necessary or Denver is lighting a victory cigar.

That’s a lot of players. Does Utah match up well?

It’s hard to say whether Denver is a patently “good” or “bad” matchup for Utah, but they certainly can expose several Utah issues. Denver won the season series 3-0, including an overtime thriller last week in which Utah choked away a double-digit fourth quarter lead. While the Jazz have some advantages, mostly in Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert offense versus Denver’s defense, the biggest problem for Utah will be Denver’s depth versus Utah’s lack thereof.

Did you just say “thereof”?

Sorry, I’m an attorney, it just comes naturally.

The MST/MDT thing makes more sense now.

I’m sure. Utah is playing without two starters: Mike Conley Jr. will miss at least the first two—and likely three—games of the series to be with his wife and newborn son, Elijah, who was born Sunday afternoon, which is awesome and should be celebrated. Bojan Bogdanovic had wrist surgery in May and will remain out for the playoffs. Ed Davis, who wasn’t going to receive minutes, will nonetheless miss the series with a knee injury. So, while Utah has some great top-level talent, the quality of players behind that talent gets real dubious, real fast.

Gobert and Jokić are diametrically opposite players, and they have traded great games against each other over the past few years. Gobert had a very good game in last week’s loss, particularly on offense, but fouled out in no small part to Jokić’s fabulous performance. Jokić can also use his girth and meat hook hands to force Gobert out of rebounding position and gobble up boards. That said, Gobert’s defense will always be more about how he defends against all comers—especially on switches on the perimeter—rather than just the occasional isolation against Jokić.

It will be awesome to see Gobert take on a dramatically different playoff-level challenge after the James Harden and Clint Capela experience. Almost every player Denver puts on the court will be a quality offensive threat, and the Jazz will usually have one, two, or even three negative defenders on the court. So, Gobert will occasionally have to put the entire defense on his back, which will be more important than his 1-on-1 matchup with Jokić.

Without Conley, Mitchell should have every opportunity to dominate the ball. Aside from Craig, who carries offensive limitations, Denver doesn’t have the perimeter defender horses to contain Mitchell, and there are many ways Jazz coach Quin Snyder’s offense can scheme away a single defensive matchup in Craig. Since the Jazz just don’t have any other reliable off-the-dribble scoring, they will need consistent heroics from Mitchell to win four games out of seven.

That can’t be right. No reliable scoring? Jordan Clarkson can go off any time, and I thought Joe Ingles was good with the ball in his hands.

Big emphasis on the word “reliable” in that last sentence. Ingles is temperamental with his offensive aggression—he’ll follow up a game of gritty drives and bombing threes by playing with maddening passivity in space. Royce O’Neale has started to figure out his capability driving the basketball (it’s good!), but he’s still best as a marksman shooter and lightning-quick decision maker. And Clarkson, bless him, is so incredibly volatile that, in two weeks, we could be calling this “the Jordan Clarkson series” for equally good or bad reasons. Clarkson’s shot selection is night and day different from his frustrating Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers stints, which is good, but he is still prone to dribbling himself out of the offense and missing open shots.

Georges Niang is a dependent offensive threat that can be relied upon for some marksmanship and not much else. Tony Bradley’s best offensive skill is corralling teammates’ misses and letting them shoot again. Emmanuel Mudiay—who we may not have seen at all if not for Conley’s absence—provides zero range, a barrage of midrange pull-ups, and turnovers. Each have had their positive moments throughout the regular season, but none provide playoff-level reliability. All three are negatives on defense. If any are played out of a game, I would be surprised, but not floored, to see Snyder throw out Yale rookie Miye Oni at the problem for some spot minutes—Oni has played the best out of the deep bench youngsters in the bubble. Mudiay has been so bad during the bubble that Snyder may not want to even try it, but without Conley he may have no choice.

As far as specific assignments go, O’Neale will be expected to check the much-taller Porter, and Ingles will have use all of his strength and athleticism (dad strength, in his case) to hold off the sizable Millsap and Grant. An impressive defensive outing from Mitchell will be extremely helpful: Mitchell will likely need to contain Murray, and he seems uniquely capable of mucking up Jokić’s unusual passes. Utah doesn’t typically force many turnovers, but some added variance from Mitchell in that regard could make a difference in a game or two. Denver should mirror the matchups on the other end, save for the possibility of Craig on Mitchell. Once the bench players start to trickle in, expect Denver to pick at Utah’s weakest defensive link (Clarkson, Niang) while drawing Gobert out of the paint (or, if Bradley is in the game, just attacking Bradley).

You seem really pessimistic. Do we have a chance?

Yes, but Utah will need the bench play elevated to “average,” and nothing but prime performances from the starters (and perhaps a supernova game from Mitchell). These are very possible! Utah’s done it before in single-game instances, but it’s a taller order over an entire series. The Jazz will always find ways to shoot loads of open threes, both in scheme and due to Gobert’s gravity at the rim, and the Nuggets can struggle defending that. Utah is getting better at drawing fouls, and the Nuggets can get hack-happy. Porter is still a huge question mark defensively, and his recent offensive outburst is only a small sample. So, there are some trends that work out in the Jazz’s favor, but they all need to line up at the right time.

So you’re probably picking the Nuggets to win the series, then.

Nuggets in 5. Don’t hate me. To be fair, I think the Nuggets would have cruised past either team in the Houston-Oklahoma City series as well, and I also think the same of Utah. Here’s to hoping that I’m wrong in who advances.