Jazz Player Trade Probabilities: An Unsourced Analysis

How likely are Markkanen and Clarkson to be dealt before next Thursday? Mark Russell-Pereira ventures a guess. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The Jazz have rarely been active participants at the NBA trade deadline in recent years, with the only notable transactions in remotely modern history being the Jae Crowder acquisition in 2018¹ and shuttling Enes Kanter off to Oklahoma City in 2015 for a first round pick². No disrespect to Matt Thomas, but Utah just hasn’t hit the headlines in past Februarys.

The 2023 trade deadline looks to be wildly different, as the Utah Jazz appear primed to make and take several calls about their current roster. Nearly every player has been bandied about in rumors and by wishful-thinking fans, so it’s worth asking the question: How probable is it that a move actually gets made? Let’s do a quick tier breakdown, starting with those most likely to be traded:

Tier 1: Stone-cold locks

Nobody

The consistent thread through Danny Ainge’s management career is that he will not agree to a deal just for the sake of making a deal. He’s more likely to just let a deal die than to accept a paltry return. Most of Utah’s roster is under contract for next season, anyways, so it’s not like Utah is letting guys walk for nothing in return this summer. The team also isn’t going to fire sale legitimate contributors just to add a few dozen ping pong balls in the NBA lottery³.

Additionally, the Jazz are in the fortunate position of not being super close to the luxury tax threshold, so there isn’t anyone that is obviously slated to be a salary cap casualty.

Tier 2: Very Likely

Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt

Teams will call about Beasley and Vanderbilt, and Utah will call other teams about Beasley and Vanderbilt.

Beasley is by far the better of the two, and carries an A+ level skill that playoff teams covet: shooting the hell out of the basketball. Beasley’s offensive game is also way more diverse than a simple relocation 3-point specialist just hanging around the perimeter: he’s shown a real acuity at finishing in traffic in the paint, can make the occasional difficult pass off a drive, and has a useful/viable passing game in a two-man action. Beasley also takes and makes a healthy amount of off-the-dribble and/or contested threes, which is a significant degree of usefulness above your typical distance shooting merchant (like Bryn Forbes, who was traded last year to Denver for a 2nd round pick, Bol Bol, and an injured PJ Dozier).

His contract is a mild bargain, and every contender would be happy to pick up his team option next year. Beasley’s defense is poor, but he isn’t tiny (6’4”) and contenders will typically deploy him within a solid defensive scheme to hide him if needed. Utah shouldn’t mind bringing Beasley back next year, and he’ll carry similar value at the next trade deadline if the Jazz expect to let him go at the end of his contract.

As for Vanderbilt, his contract is super attractive ($4.3 million this year; almost fully non-guaranteed $4.6 million next year), especially for trade partners butting up against the tax. Vanderbilt is only (almost) 24, but it’s already his fifth season in the league. We’ve seen what he can and can’t do, and frankly I’m not sure if we saw any improvement anywhere from minute zero of the season. Walker Kessler has supplanted Vanderbilt as the primary defense-first, non-shooting presence on the floor. Vanderbilt still occupies a scarcer position, and contenders often need playoff bodies worthy of the floor at his size.

Given the state of the market, I think Utah is right to ask for a first round pick for Vanderbilt, but I don’t think his play and age really warrant such a return. If a Vanderbilt trade partner also saves a shitload of money in a Vanderbilt deal, a reasonable first round pick could be in play—a scenario that is very tangible when scanning the league. But the Jazz also need Kessler to see the floor a bunch next year, and I don’t think there will be any attractive deals this summer or next trade deadline—the time to deal Vanderbilt is now.

Tier 3: Merely Plausible

Mike Conley, Kelly Olynyk

There’s a ton of feel-good vibes about Conley’s current role in Utah, from the team and management alike. Conley has thrived as a setup guy for (newly minted All-Star!) Lauri Markkanen and enjoys the mentorship role for Collin Sexton. Conley has shared that he won’t move his family in the middle of the school year and doesn’t seem thrilled about the idea of playing in a different city while his family stays in Salt Lake. Turns out that not every player requires a championship contender to be happy! Who knew?!

But Conley and management also know he won’t be the starting point guard for the next Jazz playoff stalwart in a few years, and are realistic about fielding calls. There is a soft disconnect with the market: Conley’s role and large salary isn’t typically worth a first round pick, but that’s what Utah will be asking for. And because Conley provides real value to the young Jazz, the Utah brass isn’t feeling an aggressive pinch to dump him. Lastly, there aren’t many dudes in Conley’s role available on the market (it’s not clear to anyone whether Fred VanVleet is even available, for example), so Utah might have an edge in extracting value.

Olynyk is in a similar spot, even if he doesn’t have a firm history with Utah. Olynyk is a starter/high-bench level dude who doesn’t need to close games if it doesn’t make sense for a playoff matchup, and his weirdly inverted skillset could be massively beneficial for contenders trying to turn the right dials at the right time in their title search. His contract has just a $3 million guarantee for next year, so he could be easily flipped in the offseason.

Like Conley, he’s older and has obvious flaws that will be ripped open by playoff opponents. It’s hard to say that he’s a first round pick-value player in a vacuum. But I just don’t think Ainge/Justin Zanik are going to accept whatever the best offer is for Olynyk if it’s a shitty return. They will absolutely keep Olynyk around as a useful dude for their team construct and see what happens next year. Contenders should want Olynyk, and Utah will make them pay the price for him.

Tier 4: Very Unlikely

Subtier A, Good Players: Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton

The situation is very simple with Jordan Clarkson: He is overwhelmingly more valuable to the Jazz than any other team. His role is outsized in Utah for all the right reasons for both parties (Clarkson likes to play a lot and have the basketball; the Jazz need lots and lots of minutes of great ballhandling and scoring). On any contending team, Clarkson would have a reduced role and increased scrutiny. He’s technically an expiring contract (Clarkson will likely decline his player option and enter unrestricted free agency), and who knows if acquiring his Bird rights will even matter since it seems plausible he could just join a team with cap space. His hometown San Antonio Spurs might pick up the phone, for example.

So I don’t see anyone offering the real good shit that Utah will ask for in exchange for Clarkson. The Jazz love Clarkson, Clarkson loves the Jazz, and there doesn’t seem to be any motivation to get him on a title contender from either side. Flame on, indeed.

Sexton might be more appropriately slotted in the “No Chance” tier, since there really isn’t a theory of a trade that makes sense for Utah. They just gave him an affordable extension, and would be better off trying to make Sexton a real dude instead of trading him for his market value, which isn’t all that much. But he doesn’t quite carry the sexy panache of the three guys in the last tier, so sitting underneath Clarkson as “very, very, very unlikely” feels right.

Subtier B, Not Good Players: Talen Horton-Tucker

Talen Horton-Tucker is an expensive, young, extremely raw player that won’t help contenders and developing teams won’t want. He was a nice player to receive in exchange for Patrick Beverley, if only for the reason “we really don’t want Patrick Beverley.” There are hardly any trade partners that would require THT as salary matching filler, so he’ll stick around Utah unless a transaction comes from left field. With his pricey player option next year, it behooves Utah to try and develop him instead of jettisoning him for nothing (or, worse, at a cost).

Tier 5: Unrated (Salary Filler)

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Simone Fontecchio, Udoka Azubuike, Leandro Bolmaro

NAW is an expiring contract who won’t move the needle for a contender, so he’ll only be in a deal if the salaries need to match. This is especially true for Azubuike, who is also expiring, and won’t see the floor for any other team (tanking weirdness excepted).

Fontecchio and Bolmaro are young(ish) but don’t carry intrigue at their current performance level for other teams. Both are interesting to see how they grow in Utah, but they aren’t important enough to not include them in deals if necessary to make the math work.

Tier 6: Rudy Gay

Rudy Gay is 36 years old, scoring 4.4 points per game, carrying a 42.2% eFG% (23.8% from three), making $6,184,500 this year and will certainly opt in and earn $6,479,00 next year.

Rudy Gay is Rudy Gay, and he shall remain Rudy Gay until he ceases being Rudy Gay.

Tier 7: No Chance

Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Ochai Agbaji

I’m not going to spend 4,000 words wringing my hands over the nuance of what “untouchable” means in an NBA trade context. No, Kessler is not as good as Markkanen. No, Markkanen is not the best player in the league.

It simply means that there are no plausible offers with any speck of possibility that would ever be presented to Utah for any of these players. The Jazz are going to see what the future holds for these guys, and for good reason. A competitor would have to pay a 4x-8x multiplier in value for Utah to just not hang up the phone. Further, other teams know that, so they’re probably not even trying to dial the number.

It looks like we have a live trade deadline in the works for Utah this go-around. All we do now, is wait.