Jazz Prepare for a High-Stakes Postseason

The stakes are high in this Utah Jazz postseason, starting with the impacts to the futures of these three men. (via utahjazz.com)

The Utah Jazz stand on a knife’s edge.

This has been the most fraught year in the Quin Snyder era. Last year’s number one seed feels like it took a step back. There has been constant noise — about chemistry issues, about other teams coveting Utah’s core pieces, and about fundamental flaws in the Jazz as a whole. There have been a series of late-game meltdowns, echoing of course the mother of all meltdowns in last year’s Clippers playoff matchup.

And yet — Jazz fans have clamored for an opportunity to see this iteration healthy in the playoffs. Now they have it. On paper, the group that takes the floor this Saturday is the most talented since… the Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer squad? Or perhaps even the golden-age John Stockton and Karl Malone teams?

The truth is that this team’s ceiling is still sky-high. The current Jazz starters are 4–0 when healthy in the playoffs. Despite question marks, the bench has more depth and upside than any in this era.

You can look back at previous series losses and point to excuses. Not enough firepower, injured starters, lack of bench depth. Those have been addressed. No team is perfect, and the Jazz still have real questions to address. Can they overcome their recent 4th quarter yips stumbles? Can they guard five guys on the perimeter? Can they punish smallball lineups?

It’s time to see. As ESPN’s Zach Lowe has repeatedly stated, perhaps no team has as much pressure on it this season as the Jazz. Though there are a myriad of scenarios, it feels like a make-or-break hinge point for this group.

So what are fair expectations and what are the stakes, really?

Fair expectations

Going into the season, there were several prevailing thoughts:

1. This team should finish as one of the top seeds.
2. That said, the regular season doesn’t mean much.
3. This team is desperate to break out of the second round of the playoffs.

The Jazz clearly underperformed in the regular season, despite a crippling wave of COVID-related consequences. Even when healthy there are some mental issues this team needs to overcome. And while the welcome additions of Danuel House and Juancho Hernangomez have helped, this team still has perimeter defense issues. Amid the drama and speculation about the group’s future, there has also been a sense of joy and togetherness that has been lacking.

So while the COVID excuse holds validity, it does feel like this regular season mattered more than we anticipated, thus the decreased optimism surrounding this team.

And the same desperation to at least make the Western Conference Finals exists — but now, because of that disappointing regular year, the Jazz’s likely second round opponent, should they advance, would be the league’s best team. To even get a shot at the Suns, the Jazz will have to defeat a talented Mavericks team without home-court advantage.

The Dallas series is fascinating. Any playoff series win is a feather in a franchise’s hat. Especially against a talented team like the Luka Doncic-led Mavericks. And yet, reports of Doncic missing at least the series opener could put an asterisk on a victory. If the Jazz were written off in the regular season, a win against a Doncic-less Mavs team is not going to earn them any points. A loss against such team would be disastrous, but at least it would clarify that this team needs a shakeup.

Let’s say the Jazz advance, whether or not Luka is healthy. The 64-win Suns had the best record by a mile and are deserving favorites by many predictive models. I don’t think anyone favors the Jazz to win this hypothetical series. But if the Jazz make it competitive, what then? Let’s say Utah pushes it to 7-games and both Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell play really well. How would fans and decision makers feel about the future then?

Obviously a series win against the Suns would be huge achievement, even if the team doesn’t advance past the Western Conference Finals. It’s easy to make the argument this team is worth continual investment in that scenario. And it’s certainly easy to see scenarios where the team pursues a shakeup. The in-between scenarios get murky.

Winning series will speak loudest. But how the Jazz play is going to matter a lot, too. So much has been said about Gobert, specifically how he’s schemed in the playoffs. Even if the Jazz disappoint, Gobert’s play could have big ramifications on how the team approaches certain decisions about roster composition this summer. The same can be said for other offensive-minded players.

The stakes

There’s been plenty of chatter about shaking this roster up, but what those moves look like has been less clear.

The biggest fundamental change would be to move one or more of Mitchell, Gobert or Snyder. If the Jazz want to continue contending for the near future they should avoid any of these moves. Letting Snyder go just seems like a terrible choice. Unless Snyder himself wants to move on, it just doesn’t make sense. Trading Gobert is not going to return equally impactful players, and so the team takes a big step back in the hope of restyling. Trading Mitchell could net back a bigger return, but would still be a blow to the franchise.

If the Jazz trade both Mitchell and Gobert, it doesn’t make much sense to keep other veterans like Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, or Rudy Gay. Does Snyder want to oversee another rebuild?

Some of the “in-between” scenarios could be to retool around Mitchell and Gobert. Perhaps some of the offensive-oriented rotation players are moved for 2-way wings. It’s hard to imagine Conley, Bogdanovic, Jordan Clarkson, or Gay bringing back equal value in a trade — but the Jazz may find the talent tradeoff is worth making the roster more balanced and flexible. Shams Charania speculated this team could look to retool rather than rebuild.

If the Jazz advance past the second round it means the team figured something out and players stepped up. They could still pursue some minor moves and use their mid-level exception to add another rotation-quality player. Looking farther into the future, the Jazz could plan their next two offseasons around preserving cap space for a third star to join in 2024. A few good playoff rounds can change the story in a hurry.

Enjoying the ride

As sports fans, we are creatures of recency bias. Yes, the last few months have been rough for the Jazz. But last season was one of the most enjoyable regular seasons in team history. The Jazz have the longest running playoff streak in the Western Conference. They still have a shot at winning it all. The team is not wallowing in mediocrity or studying lottery pick decisions.

Above all, this is a team that’s easy to root for. The Jazz players do a lot of good off the court and have been a really fun team to watch on the whole. If this is the end of the Mitchell/Gobert/Snyder era, let’s appreciate and enjoy the ride it’s been.