Keyonte George’s Blueprint for Winning Rookie of the Year

Keyonte George will need to be on the attack frequently to have a shot at Rookie of the Year. (Francisco Kjolseth, The Salt Lake Tribune)

The Utah Jazz are back baby! Media day and the start to training camp has started to give us more and more insights into what to expect as the start of the season nears. Steve Godfrey already did a great job of highlighting some of the more memorable quotes from Media Day, and I want to key in on one specific quote from a player that many Jazz fans are excited about.

The video above is rookie Keyonte George’s whole media day interview, but interested takeaway was when he said:

“A lot of people dream about being in the seat and not a lot of people get to do it. Of course, you put this goal on the wall or whatever, but a lot of times it doesn’t come true,” he said. When asked about his own goals he said, “Of course for myself I set really high goals, and I want to be Rookie of the Year, just to point out an individual goal.”

That is a lofty goal for the rookie, and it is nice to see that he has this level of confirdence in himself. It also sounds like he is putting in the work to make it happen.

“I’m young and you can say I haven’t done anything in this league yet, but I think day in and day out, I’m putting in the work you know, already locked in,” he added.

The modern Utah Jazz have had a winner in most all of the major NBA Awards in the last 40 years. They’ve had an MVP in Karl Malone (1997, 1999), two Defensive Player of the Year winners in Mark Eaton (1989) and Rudy Gobert (2018, 2019, 2021), Sixth Man of the Year in Jordan Clarkson (2021), and most recently the Most Improved Player in Lauri Markannen (2023). They haven’t had a player win Rookie of the Year since 1981, when Darrell Griffith averaged 20.6 during the franchise’s second year in Utah. The closest since then was Donovan Mitchell, who finished second in voting to Ben Simmons in the 2017-18 season.

There is a good reason for the Jazz not having a winner in their history. The winners are almost always one of the top overall selections and players drafted in a situation where the entire offense will be turned over to them. The Jazz have historically just been too good for that. They are one of nine teams since the lottery began to have never held the number 1 overall pick. The highest selection they made was Deron Williams with the number 3 pick. 

Mitchell exploding onto the scene like he did is a rarity, and multiple things had to happen to open the door for him. Two of the biggest were the lack of competition to the role he was taking over. Gordon Hayward left in free agency, and Rodney Hood struggled as a first option. The Jazz desperately needed someone who could play with the ball in their hands and had a willingness to take shots. As a rookie, Mitchell averaged 33.4 minutes, and a whopping 17.2 shot attempts per game. Since the 2000 season, Mitchell was one of only 4 players who averaged over 30 minutes and 17 shot attempts per game as a rookie. The others were LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Kevin Durant. 

For George to have a legitmate shot at winning Rookie of the Year, a few things are going to have to happen to pave the way. Let’s take a look at a few things that need to happen to help Key acheive his goal.

Become a starter sooner rather than later

This is an obvious one. Only one Rookie of the Year winner that I could find played more games coming off the bench than starting. That was Malcolm Brogdon, who also averaged the fewest minutes per game of any winner all-time, but still played 26.4 minutes per game. That was an odd season for rookies. Ben Simmons was out the entire season, and Joel Embiid only played in 31 games, but averaged 20.2 points. Typically, the Rookie of the Year winner is given the reigns early on because they were draft by a team with a terrible record the year before. 

For Key, becoming a full time starter is much more acheivable than any other rookie on the roster, inluding Taylor Hendricks who was picked seven spots earlier. The Jazz have a ton of viable options at the guard spot, but no clear cut number one option. I would have guessed Key starting was a long shot to start the season, but during the first scrimmage of training camp we saw Key in the starting 5 next to Talen Horton-Tucker, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler. If he ends up starting during Sundays first preseason game against the Clippers, it will say a lot about how the coaching staff plans to utilize him.

Even if Key doesn’t get the nod as a starter to begin the season, he needs to at least have a consistent role to start the season, with the hopes that that role will expand and ultimately lead to him becoming the starter. 

Average at least 15 points

This may be the kicker and what really holds back Key from having a legitimate shot at winning ROY. Over the past 20 seasons, 19 of the previous 20 ROY winners averaged over 15 points per game. The one who didn’t was once again the weird Brogdon season.

Clearly, George has a knack for putting the ball in the basket, but just in terms of opportunity alone, it will be hard for him to get to 15 points per game. If we look at this Jazz roster as currently constructed, it is hard for me to imagine Key getting more shot attempts per game than Markkanen, Collins, Jordan Clarkson, or Collin Sexton. That leaves him fifth in the pecking order for shot attempts in the best case. Last season, Horton-Tucker attempted the fifth most shots per game for the Jazz, at 9.4, on the way to 10.7 points. Sextion only attempted 9.8 shots per game and averaged 14.3 points. 

During that same 20-year span, 45 rookies averaged over 15 points per game, and the least amount of shot attempts to get to 15 points was Eric Gordon at 11.6 shot attempts. I just don’t see a way for that amount of shots to make their way over to Key… that is unless the Jazz end up making a trade that moves him up the pecking order and into the starting rotation. 

Legitimate Role, paired with team success

Look, if you are a rookie that was taken as a high lottery pick, you were almost certainly drafted by a team that does not have lofty expectations. For most all of the other major awards, being a part of a winning environment is an important factor for most voters. That criteria is typically set aside for our rookies. That said, if you can be a rookie with a legitmate role on a winning team, it does tend to sway some of the votes your way. 

This category may actually help George if the Jazz once again can surprise teams by being better than expected. If he becomes a starter sooner rather than later and is averaging double digit points while also contributing four to five assist per game, coupled with the Jazz being at or above .500, he could earn a lot of votes. Especially if his competition for the award are players like Victor Wenbanyama, Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, and Amen Thompson, who may be on teams that once again find themselves on bottom dwelling teams next season.

Let’s say Miller is averaging 15-5-5, while Key is averaging 12 points, 5 assist and 2 rebounds, but the Jazz are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Hornets are in line for a top 3 pick in next years draft. That is the type of situation where many would give Key the edge in voting because of his positive impact to winning even as a rookie.

Narrative – Get the attention early

With players like Wemby and Scoot almost certainly stealing all the headlines in the early stages of the  season, it will be important for George to become a part of the narrative early. I don’t want to say this is the hope, but if you really want Key to have a shot at winning ROY, then you almost need to hope for those players to get off to a slower start, while the Jazz rookie takes the league by surprise.

Mitchell had a few solid games early, but when he really became a legitimate threat to Simmons for ROY was when he dropped 41 points in a win over the Pelicans who had the league’s attention because of the newly paired Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Everything changed for Donovan after that, because he had the attention of the entire league. 

This is what Key needs if he is going to get the attention of the league and be taken seriously as a candidate for ROY. Currently, he has +5000 odds to win rookie of the year, which is miles behind Wemby, Scoot, and Chet Holmgren, who are leading the way as favorites to win the award. Similar to what he did against the Clippers during the Summer League which caused multiple media outlets to start talking about the Jazz rookie, an early season explosion would go a long way in getting media and national attention, and getting his name into the narrative of likely winners for the award.