Lineups, Tweaks & Quirks That Could Shape Jazz-Grizzlies Series

The Jazz and Grizzlies will square off in a best-of-7 playoff battle.

The Utah Jazz have been a very steady, healthy juggernaut for the vast majority of the 2020-21 regular season. A recent spell without Mike Conley Jr. and Donovan Mitchell notwithstanding, the Jazz’s primary rotation has generally remained intact and healthy (and, to their massive credit, without any absences due to coronavirus protocols). This helped the team rack up a ton of wins and firmly set their rotation and play.

But, unlike other teams who have had more injuries or protocol absences, they haven’t seen a really extended look at a wide variety of lineups. Deeper-bench players have received some experience from time to time, but not so much that head coach Quin Snyder can firmly understand where they could contribute in a playoff rotation. And the Jazz certainly don’t have much of an understood reserve plan should the regular rotation experience injuries or faults in the playoffs.

But well-coached teams like Snyder’s Jazz always tinker behind the scenes and aren’t afraid to firm up a playoff rotation or unleash stuff they’ve worked on in cases of emergency. As the dominant Jazz head into a postseason full of expectations on top of deserved skepticism, how should we expect their rotation to play out?

Let’s start with looking at the standard-issue Snyder regular season rotation and substitution pattern¹. This, of course, presupposes everyone is healthy, which as mentioned above is typically the case, and extends nine deep:

Donovan Mitchell: 35 minutes. Pretty typical “star starter” minutes distribution: plays most of the 1st and 3rd quarters, takes a rest that stretches into the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters, and closes each half.

Rudy Gobert: 32 minutes. Snyder implemented a very yo-yo pattern at center with Gobert and the backup Derrick Favors. Unlike a typical starter, Gobert is usually subbed out pretty early in the 1st and 3rd quarters, then comes back in to close the quarters and start the 2nd and 4th quarters. Snyder then gives Gobert another few minutes off, and then he re-enters to close each half with the starters.

If that sounds confusing, think of it another way: Snyder gives Favors 3-5 minute spurts in the middle of each quarter, and Gobert starts every quarter and finishes each half.

Mike Conley Jr.: 30 minutes. Typically tied to Gobert with a similar substitution pattern, but not always. Conley doesn’t have a true backup like Favors is to Gobert, but Joe Ingles is usually the first substitution and then Snyder plays around with the backcourt combos from there.

Royce O’Neale: 32 minutes. Same substitution pattern as Mitchell; O’Neale will be held out a few extra minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarters after Mitchell has re-entered, but they certainly can be found tied together.

Bojan Bogdanovic: 32 minutes. Tugged a little sooner than Mitchell to send Jordan Clarkson in. From there, Bogdanovic probably has the most variant minutes pattern from game to game among the regulars, but even then it’s pretty consistent. If Clarkson is having a good game, Snyder might play him a little more with Bogdanovic in the 2nd half.

Jordan Clarkson: 25 minutes. Typical sixth man gunner minutes; plays one giant chunk in each half that stretches between the quarters. Snyder has stuck with him with this pattern no matter how poorly Clarkson is shooting or playing in general.

Joe Ingles: 25 minutes. Same minutes distribution as Clarkson, but sometimes enters the game sooner (for Mike Conley) with Favors. Ingles will occasionally re-enter a game late in lieu of Bogandovic.

Derrick Favors: 16 minutes. See Gobert’s description above; Favors gets 3-5 minutes each quarter but rarely starts any quarter.

Georges Niang: 13 minutes. Snyder typically uses Niang as a direct substitution for Mitchell, so Niang closes the end of the 1st and 3rd quarters and subsequently starts the 2nd and 4th.

So what lineups does this rotation and minutes distribution typically lead to? Let’s take a look at the Jazz’s six most used lineups, per Cleaning the Glass:

1. Starters: Conley, Mitchell, O’Neale, Bogdanovic, Gobert; 1214 possessions, +11.1 per 100 possessions

• Due to health, more than twice as many minutes as any other lineup.
• That +11.2 for the starters is bananaland territory as it usually matches up against opponent’s starters, and is a major source of confidence and optimism going into the postseason.

2. Gobert and Conley Anchor the Bench: Conley, Clarkson, Ingles, Niang, Gobert; 624 possessions, +14.4 per 100 possessions

• When Gobert and Conley re-enter, Utah typically retains their two Sixth Man of the Year candidates with their 9th man in Niang.
• This lineup crushes weak opponent benches at the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters.

3. and 5. Favors Backup Center Time: Mitchell, O’Neale, Bogdanovic, Favors with one of Clarkson or Ingles. The Clarkson version of this lineup has played 534 possessions at +8.5 per 100, 363 possessions with Ingles at +3.8.

• Grouping these together because they’re essentially the same thing; Clarkson vs. Ingles is usually a substitution pattern quirk, but occasionally can be a matchup preference by Snyder from game to game.
• The downside to pulling Gobert early in halves and re-entering him in the 2nd and 4th quarters is that Favors is put out there earlier to defend starting units for a bit. These are typically Utah’s roughest units but they’re still overall positive on the season.

4. and 6. Ingles Plays Guard with the Starters: Whenever one of Mitchell or Conley has missed, Ingles has assumed that spot with whichever one is healthy and the other three starters, O’Neale, Bogdanovic and Gobert; 452 possessions at +21.2 with Mitchell in the lineup, and 276 possessions at +30.4 with Conley.

• Again we’re dealing with ostensibly two versions of the same lineup. Depending on how the game is going or the rotation shakes out, these lineups are typically found where Ingles is the last bench Jazzman in the game as Quin re-enters the starters to close a half.
• Those +/- numbers are totally insane. Interestingly, Clarkson at the other guard spot is Utah’s 8th most-used lineup (215 possessions), and is -0.1 points per 100 possessions, one of Utah’s rare common units that is negative. Add Favors instead of Gobert (163 possessions), and that figure plummets to -23.4. Snyder should avoid these!

The rotation is definitely going to look a little different as we move through the postseason. How might Snyder tweak the minutes or roles, whether due to requisite playoff intensity, matchups, injuries, or a combination of all three?

General Playoff Basketball Tweaks

More minutes for the starters

This one’s pretty obvious—in the playoffs, your starters/best players get fewer breaks and coaches extend them in the rotation. But the devil is in the details here, and I have several questions and expectations.

In the frontcourt, if Snyder wants to ramp up Gobert’s minutes to 36+, does he stick with the four-stints-of-Favors concept, but now for mere 2- or 3- minute spells? If not, does Gobert play entire 2nd and/or 4th quarters? I can see Favors not re-entering the game in the 4th if the game is close. At the power forward slot, how short do Niang’s minutes get? Does he get excluded from the rotation entirely?

In the backcourt, Utah has been sensitive with Conley’s workload this season, to keep him fresh. How much do they push the gas pedal with him in the playoffs? And when, if ever, do we see Mitchell’s minutes increase, as he recovers from an ankle sprain?

More Ingles; Less Clarkson

As I mentioned in my Sixth Man of the Year musings, one of Clarkson’s valuable roles was soaking up minutes and shots during tired nights of regular season basketball, even though he was quite inefficient in the process. I don’t think you’ll see as many “dead legs” possessions where the Jazz need Clarkson isolation scoring. That potentially reduces the need for him being out there at all. If the starters’ minutes get stretched, Clarkson’s minutes look to be the first (or second, to Niang) on the chopping block.

On the other hand, the 33-year-old Ingles could be tasked with additional workload. Instead of the starters, it’s possible Clarkson’s minutes are directly apportioned to Ingles. Utah lineups with Ingles and a collection of starters have played really, really well and Snyder should tap into it quite a bit.
The more Clarkson is out there, the more opponents will both (1) target him on defense as Utah’s weakest defender and (2) force the ball into his hands over other, more efficient options.

Playoff Matchup Quirks

Favors Gets Benched/Snyder Goes “Center-Less”

Any Utah fan knows that the “Gobert gets played off the court in the playoffs” is insultingly inaccurate. And regardless of the difficulty of the defensive matchup, Gobert is so incredibly important on offense that he’s going to play his 36+ minutes. But what about Favors?

As opponents similarly shore up their rotation, teams will absolutely play lineups emphasizing speed and shooting to a degree that a very non-traditional center is manning the 5 spot. Think Marcus Morris for the Clippers or Dario Saric for the Suns (side note: Saric at center has been seemingly mothballed by Monty Williams as of late, but was really effective during the season). Gobert can hang with these lineups, but Favors has lost enough of a step that Snyder might match up his own smaller lineups that shoot and pass better than the opponent. Niang has really blossomed as a one-on-one defender this year in that I could see him as the center, or maybe Snyder goes nuts and puts O’Neale at center.

The main downside from this is that Favors is also an incredibly good screener that sets the Jazz offense in motion. These lineups might struggle—but survive—defensively, but the assumed offensive benefits of going small don’t mean anything if Utah’s bevy of shooters can’t get open off of the core screening actions in the middle of the floor that Utah’s two roll men open up.

O’Neale Tied to Opponent Stars

Utah’s defense is Rudy Gobert. That existential raison d’être is incredible, but Utah still needs their wing and backcourt defenders to step up in the playoffs. O’Neale is Utah’s second-most important defender due to his ability to play up a forward position and hold his own against taller defenders. He can capably guard backcourt players as well, but as far as the playoff rotation is concerned, Snyder will want to make sure O’Neale is reasonably tied to the opponent’s premier wings and “power forwards” (Anthony Davis).

An opponent could try and play a lineup at the start of the 2nd or 4th quarters (or during Favors’ minutes in such quarters) that inserts their star(s) off-schedule from their regular rotation. This might behoove Snyder to give O’Neale a shorter rest than planned, or he risks weaker Jazz defenders getting cooked in isolation. There is only so much Gobert can do, after all.

A Key Player Gets Injured, or Snyder Tries Something Random

You can’t plan for injuries, foul trouble or wild scenarios, but here are some short(ish) bullets on some unusual lineup choices that will certainly pique our interest should Snyder give them a go. After all, who would have predicted Juwan Morgan starting two games in the 2020 bubble playoffs?

Third Center Shuffle

If Favors or (gulp) Gobert is out, Utah is incredibly thin behind them. The Jazz don’t have a reasonably capable NBA-quality center on the deep roster, like an Ekpe Udoh or Ed Davis. Not to say those players are great, but if you need to eke out a game or three shorthanded, those guys could fit the bill. This year, Utah is left with Ersan Ilyasova (short and slow shooter who takes eleventy billion charges but doesn’t have the same rebounding edge as in his prime), Morgan (woefully undersized but knows the role and screens well), and Udoka Azubuike (athletic rookie who will foul a ton and struggle to keep up). All are bad options.

However, this team construct is not dissimilar to Utah’s 2017 playoff squad against the Clippers, in which Gobert missed 2 games. Instead of playing (very bad) bench center Jeff Withey, Snyder usually just rolled with Boris Diaw at center to give Favors a break. I could see Snyder trusting Ilyasova a bit for spacing and guile, probably more than Morgan and definitely more than Azubuike. Snyder could also just try the center-less lineups described above. I don’t trust Azubuike either, and he has only recently returned from an ankle injury that sidelined his development for several months, but I like the idea of the variance he can provide as a wild young colt going after bench units. If the opponent has a big bench center that will simply overwhelm Ilyasova, Morgan, or Niang (like Ivica Zubac for the Clippers), I wouldn’t be afraid to let Azubuike go commit shitload of fouls in order to retain a critical rim protecting and rebounding edge.

Well, They Traded for Him…

Matt Thomas was a relatively unusual trade-deadline acquisition for Utah, in that they traded a 2nd round pick for a non-defending shooter who won’t play even with a few injuries (he barely played in this recent stretch without Conley and Mitchell). His defense is wildly poor, but Gobert covers up a ton of mistakes. If Utah needs to shoot itself back into a game, and Clarkson or Bogdanovic are just absolutely miserable, it’s not crazy to think of Matt Thomas out there running off of screens JJ Redick-style for a spell.

Keeping the Guard Up

Miye Oni will not play if the team is fully healthy, but he is the only capable defender that fits size-wise between Utah’s undersized starters in Mitchell and Conley and its forward rotation. O’Neale and Ingles are solid defenders but can struggle against quicker, smaller, skilled ballhandlers (see, e.g., 2020 Jamal Murray). Snyder can be stubborn in this respect and trust his regular defenders (especially with Gobert behind them), but Snyder has also surprised us this season by slotting Oni to defend the highest-tier talent of the NBA whenever he got minutes. Oni’s mild ascension in this regard is partly why the Jazz decided to cut ace defender Shaq Harrison. Oni fouled a ton, partially due to officials going on reputation, partly due to…Oni genuinely fouling a ton. If Oni is needed, he’ll be put squarely in the spotlight as a premier defender.

Two-Center Tango

The issues faced by the Favors-Gobert frontcourt in the past were a little overblown, mainly due to the Jazz defense being incredible when the two shared the floor. Favors’ declining athleticism, the league’s continued downsizing, and the dominant offense with O’Neale and Bogdanovic at forward means Utah has essentially scrapped the Favors-Gobert combo for the entire season. Favors also needs to be kept on ice to be productive in his short stints. This is probably a Lakers-only card and the end of the day; if the Lakers insist on playing Anthony Davis with a traditional center pairing (Andre Drummond or Marc Gasol), and are successful against Utah to a great degree, Snyder might dust off this pairing for a few minutes.

This would entail having Favors match size with the opponent center so that the world’s greatest defender can seek to shut down Davis. Of note: when the Lakers needed to win the most, in the play-in game against Golden State, Davis almost exclusively played center. Lakers Coach Frank Vogel knows where his bread will be buttered.

Jarrell Brantley/Juwan Morgan

Neither of Brantley or Morgan will see the floor unless there are injuries. However, both fit as 2/3/4 tweeners (with Morgan also capable at center). Brantley has more variance, talent, and athleticism, but Morgan is exceptionally bright and aware for a young player. If Utah faces a paucity of healthy forwards, look to see who Snyder trusts first in light of Brantley’s relative improvement against Morgan’s wit and previous playoff experience.