Mitchell Still Has a Path to Greatness, Despite Shooting Slump

Mitchell’s outside shot has been off, but does that matter? (Melissa Majchrzak via utahjazz.com)

Now that the first half of the season is in the books, it’s time to look back and check up on something that many fans have been reluctant to consider: Donovan Mitchell has had some struggles through the first half of the season. In his defense, the situation he’s in is rather unique. He went from a late lottery pick to a top candidate for Rookie of the Year while leading his team in scoring and into the second round of the playoffs. All this on a team without an All-Star.

That’s a lot of responsibility for a rookie. And since the team hasn’t really changed, it’s now a lot of a pressure on the shoulders of a second-year player. Few players have ever had the burden that he has had on a team that feels pressure to win? Most lottery talents end up on losing teams where their growth can be a priority. By contrast, Donovan is being asked to get better as a player while anchoring a playoff team’s offense.

That said, the raw numbers from Mitchell’s first half show a player who’s adjusting to that pressure.

Very few second-year guards have averaged 20-plus points per game with a 3-point percentage equal to or lower than Mitchell’s 30.9 percent. Out of the 10 players in the 3-point era to make that list, Mitchell ranks last in field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, free throw attempts, rebounds. 

This sounds really negative, but that turns more positive when you consider the other nine players on the list include Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Dwyane Wade, Allen Iverson, Isiah Thomas and Jerry Stackhouse. Kendall Gill is the only non All-Star on a list which also features multiple Hall-of-Famers and MVPs.

In terms of his 3-point shooting, the modern NBA clearly places more importance on that aspect of the game. A lack of a consistent outside threat wasn’t as big a mark against young MJ or young Magic, but Mitchell has shown an ability to light it up over shorter periods. He had three months last season where he converted more than 37 percent of his long range attempts, although two of the three were shorter months (February and April). So chances are good that his 30.9 percent will come up.

Seeing Mitchell next to these names makes it fair to wonder whose mold Mitchell is really built in. A lot of people saw flashes of future Hall-of-Famer Wade during Mitchell’s rookie season and declared him version 2.0, while others saw a modern AI — and both of those players are on that list linked above. Here’s who is not on that list: Damian Lillard or Steph Curry.

Mitchell’s shooting profile hints that he may not follow in the footsteps of a Lillard (38 percent from deep in his first two seasons) or be the next Curry (44 percent). Even though Mitchell holds the rookie record for made threes, his early 33% figure there indicates that he might not be headed for the same 38-40% territory as those two. But that’s okay. He doesn’t need to be Dame of Steph to have a special career. He doesn’t even need to be Wade 2.0, or Iverson, or anyone else on that list.

He just needs to be Donovan Mitchell.

It would be great if his percentage from deep could increase, but it might not. And that won’t stop the Jazz from winning. It may not even stop him from being a player worthy of sharing a list with those other all-time greats. 

This is also just the halfway point of Mitchell’s second season. He has 41 more games (on an immensely easier schedule) to increase his impact on the offensive end of the floor and to be the high impact player he was at the end of last season. Hopefully that means getting to the line more, increasing his shooting percentages, and upping his assist numbers, from a statistical perspective. From a basketball perspective, it simply means getting better at making the right reads and decisions, relying on the system and his teammates more, and putting less pressure on himself. 

This season was never meant to be “the year” for the Jazz anyway, so it’s a positive that Mitchell is working through those improvements now. Utah’s relevance makes these developmental opportunities meaningful, but everything is pointing to a bigger improvement of the roster around Michell, Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles and hopefully Dante Exum. The Jazz have tools for acquiring pieces, whether later this season or in the offseason, who could make the Jazz true contenders for the final two years of Gobert’s contract. All this means is that Donovan is young and has plenty of time to continue to improve with the help of his own determination, and one of the league’s best development programs. 

Whether Mitchell returns to form for the second half of the year or not — and he will — he still has an incredibly high ceiling and can sustain the trajectory that he established as one of the league’s most exciting rookies last season.