More Deals to Come? A Look at the Pre-Camp Trade Landscape

If the Jazz have another deal coming before training camp, the sharpshooting Croatian is a likely candidate. (Rick Bowmer via sltrib.com)

The new-look Utah Jazz have one week before media day, eight days until the opening of training camp, thirteen days before the first preseason contest in Edmonton, Alberta, and exactly one month until the start of the regular season.

There’s plenty to do in the days that remain.

At the very least, the Jazz need to reduce the size of the roster by two guaranteed contracts, although they have until October 17 for that. They will probably also fill the second two-way spot on the roster, which was vacated on Friday when Xavier Sneed was waived. There will be more players signed to Exhibit 10 contracts, as Paris Bass was on Wednesday, then released, as Paris Bass was on Friday. Players who follow in Bass’s footsteps on Exhibit 10 deals are likely Stars. Salt Lake City Stars, that is.

Along with all that, we expect that there will be trades.

If you’ve kept a finger on the pulse of the franchise, you know that Bojan Bogdanovic is often named as the Jazz player with the most value and the greatest likelihood of being moved prior to the season. In contrast, with one exception, there has been less clarity about the prospects and even availability of other veterans, such as Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson and relative newcomer Malik Beasley.

That exception is the trade rumor that has been discussed frequently between the Jazz and the Lakers.

The pot of gold at the end of the rainbow in Los Angeles is stocked with two first round draft picks, but it remains to be seen if the Lakers will really give up both of them. If they decide to do so, they might be able to use those same two picks to get Buddy Hield and Myles Turner from Indiana instead of dealing with the Jazz.

The Lakers’ criteria for a trade have been made fairly clear over the past few weeks:

1. They want good rotation players that improve their hopes of rising in the western conference standings, where they finished 11^th last season.
2. They don’t want to take on future salary in exchange for Russell Westbrook’s mammoth $47 million contract, although it seems they would make some exceptions (e.g. Hield’s contract would cost the Lakers over $19 million in 2023-24, ending their dreams of significant cap space unless they flipped him next summer).
3. They want to keep one of their two tradeable picks.

That’s a tough ask for any trade partner.

Reports on Friday gave us our first sourced look at what a deal might look like, indicating that the Lakers have targeted Bogdanovic, Beasley and Clarkson in a potential exchange. Trading away three legitimate rotation players, two of whom will be off the books next summer (and Clarkson could be as well if he opts out of a $14 million year) plus paying Westbrook $47 million seems like way too steep a price for a single draft pick.

Ten days ago I had given up on this trade ever happening, but it seems the teams are still playing chicken, so stay tuned.

But enough about the high-profile deal that has dominated trade talk for the last couple of weeks. If Bogdanovic is indeed the most likely Jazz veteran to be moved, let’s take a look at what those deals might look like, mainly focusing on the teams that have been rumored to have interest in him. That may be too limiting, as almost any team should have interest in a sharpshooting 6’8” wing, but we have to start somewhere.

Fair warning: these deals, and any made with Conley, Clarkson or Beasley, are more difficult than they seem. The Jazz are after additional draft picks to add to the franchise’s rebuilding war chest, but trade partners still have to send back salary — sometimes quite a bit — in addition to draft capital. This isn’t a time of year when teams have a glut of unnecessary salary on the roster, so it can get complicated.

Any trade for Bogdanovic will require the other team to send out $15,560,000 if they’re in the tax, $14,550,000 otherwise. Most or all of that will go to the Jazz, but there is some chance some salary could be diverted to a third team if that helps make a deal work better for one of the parties.

PHOENIX

Quit dreaming: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges

Trade restrictions: DeAndre Ayton (Jan 15), Bismack Biyombo (Dec 15), Damion Lee (Dec 15), Josh Okogie (Dec 15)

Who’s left? Jae Crowder, Landry Shamet, Dario Saric, Cam Payne, Cham Johnson, Torrey Craig, Jock Landale

Any two of Crowder, Shamet and Saric match Bojan’s salary almost perfectly. The Jazz might prefer to avoid Shamet, given that they have a bevy of guards on the roster already and Shamet’s guaranteed money for two years, as opposed to Saric and Crowder’s expiring contracts.

Crowder also pairs with Cam Payne to make a 2-for-1 trade possible, but Shamet-Payne or Saric-Payne deals fall short.

Any other iteration requires three players, most likely (A) one of Crowder, Shamet or Saric, (B) one of Payne, Johnson or Craig, and (C) Jock Landale, if a larger portion of his salary was guaranteed prior to executing the trade.

To me, a Crowder-Saric pairing could work for both teams, although that raises the question of what kind of protections the Suns might want on the pick. While I believe that Bogdanovic is a better weapon than Crowder or Saric, is the talent difference so great as to justify an unprotected pick? I doubt it.

Draft picks: The Suns own all their own first and second round draft picks for the next seven drafts, with no extras from other teams. However, they might prefer to hang on to assets while monitoring the Kevin Durant situation.

That said, Phoenix radio personality John Gambadoro recently tweeted that the Suns might need to add a second rounder or even two to any first-round pick traded for Bogdanovic due to the perception that Suns picks will come later in the draft, and may have less value than other teams’ picks.

TORONTO

Quit dreaming: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes

Trade restrictions: Chris Boucher (Jan 15), Otto Porter Jr. (Dec 15), DJ Wilson (Dec 15), Juancho Hernangomez (Dec 15), Josh Jackson (Dec 15), Justin Champagnie (Dec 15), Christian Koloko (Sep 26)

Who’s left? Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby, Thaddeus Young, Khem Birch, Precious Achiuwa, Malachi Flynn, Dalano Banton

Young’s contract was extended earlier this offseason, and that deal was designed to use him in a trade, either during the offseason or by the trade deadline. While the extension added two years to his contract, only $1 million is guaranteed in 2023-24, making it very nearly an expiring contract.

Earlier in the summer I had my eye on a Young-Birch combo, although that isn’t quite enough in a swap for Bogdanovic. The Raptors would need to add one less expensive contract – either Achiuwa, Flynn or Barton (the Raptors would need to guarantee more of Barton’s contract prior to the trade). Flynn or Barton are probably more likely.

I don’t consider Anunoby untouchable in general, but I doubt he’d be moved for Bogdanovic. Gary Trent Jr. fits in that category (not untouchable, but probably not in play here), although it seems like his name was in trade rumors quite a bit in July, so maybe he’s more available than I think. Still, the Jazz aren’t really in a position to trade a wing for a guard right now, so Trent Jr. is unlikely for a couple of reasons.

Draft picks: The Raptors also own all seven future first rounders, and all but one future second rounder (2024).

NEW ORLEANS

Quit dreaming: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Herb Jones

Trade restrictions: none

Who’s left? Jonas Valanciunas, Devonte’ Graham, Larry Nance Jr., Jaxson Hayes, Dyson Daniels, Garrett Temple, Kira Lewis Jr., Trey Murphy III, Willy Hernangomez, Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado

With eleven players having varying levels of availability and NOP’s reported interest in Bogdanovic, it feels like there’s a good opportunity for a trade here, but it’s just not that easy to find a great match.

Valanciunas boasts the biggest salary in this group, but he’s not a good fit for the Jazz at this point. Neither is Graham, as a guard with three years left on his contract, and the fact that he shares an agent with Donovan Mitchell and Royce O’Neale might not be considered a positive in Utah’s front office.

Nance Jr. and Hayes are a perfect fit, meeting the matching requirements for Bogdanovic, but simultaneously saving the Jazz $3 million. From the Pelicans’ side, that might leave them pretty light in the frontcourt, especially if Williamson misses time during the season.

A piecemeal deal could combine either Nance Jr. or Hayes with Temple and Lewis Jr. or in some cases, an even smaller salary, to meet the floor for matching Bogdanovic’s salary. All these players except for Hernangomez are expiring contracts, not guaranteed or have team options after this season.

Draft picks: Thanks to the Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday deals, the Pelicans’ war chest includes nine first-round selections in the next seven drafts, further enhanced by three pick swaps and one right to defer conveyance of a pick from the Lakers in either 2024 or 2025. In short, they have options, if they’re ready to cash them in. They also have a handful of future second rounders.

DALLAS

Quit dreaming: Luka Doncic

Trade restrictions: JaVale McGee (Dec 15), Theo Pinson (Dec 15)

Who’s left? Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans, Christian Wood, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber, Josh Green, Frank Ntilikina, Jaden Hardy

The Mavs have a wide assortment of players who can be traded, but a good match for Bogdanovic is elusive. While not untouchable, Dinwiddie and Hardaway Jr. probably aren’t going anywhere, and would only add more older guards to a crowded Jazz backcourt. Utah probably doesn’t have any interest in 30-year-old Bertans, a one-dimensional shooter with three years left on his contract. New acquisition Wood isn’t going anywhere, and it’s likewise difficult to see Dallas parting ways with Finney-Smith, Bullock or Kleber.

If there’s an opportunity, it might involve Dwight Powell, who has seemingly been demoted, since JaVale McGee was promised the starting center job when he signed. With McGee, Kleber, Wood and Finney-Smith staffing the four and five spots, does Powell have a role moving forward, or does he become expendable? If Powell is available, the Mavs would probably have to add Green and Ntilikina to make the deal work.

Draft picks: The Mavs owe a first-round pick to the Knicks that will almost certainly convey in 2023, so they could offer something as early as 2025 using “two years after” language. If that pick was protected for two years, it could lock up the Dallas drafts through 2028, which they might be hesitant to do. They only have two available second-round picks available to deal, in 2027 and 2029.

NEW YORK

Quit dreaming: none

Trade restrictions: Jalen Brunson (Dec 15), Mitchell Robinson (Jan 15), Isaiah Hartenstein (Dec 15), Jericho Sims (Dec 15)

Who’s left? Julius Randle, Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, Obi Toppin, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Miles McBride.

If all these names look familiar to you, it might be because you just spent six weeks mulling them over until Utah finally moved on, trading Donovan Mitchell to play in Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse instead of Madison Square Garden.

Randle is a nonstarter due to his lengthy contract, and Barrett would be difficult to trade because of his poison pill status.

If the Knicks are truly interested in Bogdanovic and can bring themselves to speak to Jazz front office personnel at this point, a deal would probably hinge on Derrick Rose, a Tom Thibodeau favorite who the Knicks were reportedly reluctant to trade last time around. The Knicks would prefer to send Fournier, but the Jazz should balk at shipping out a more productive player with an expiring contract for two more seasons of Fournier unless the draft capital involved is pretty good.

If a deal were centered on Rose’s contract, New York would have to part with one more player to make salaries match. New York might want to send the expiring Reddish, although Rose and Reddish would push Utah past the luxury tax threshold. The Jazz would prefer a smaller salary like McBride, Grimes or Quickley, but the Knicks value their young players pretty highly.

Draft picks: Again, stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Knicks own all their own first rounders, plus four additional protected selections from Dallas, Milwaukee, Detroit and Washington that will convey somewhere between 2023 and never. Like their young talent, New York values future draft picks like Gollum treasures the ring, so good luck separating them.

That’s it for a quick look at six teams with rumored interest in Bogdanovic, so if you’ve made it this far, consider yourself prepared.

But preparation isn’t everything. Most of us were fully prepared for Gobert to land in Toronto, Chicago or Atlanta, but hadn’t even thought of Minnesota. We were ready to see Mitchell playing for the Knicks before being surprised by a deal with the Cavaliers.

These six teams may have expressed interest in Bogdanovic, but some of the other 23 teams might have as well.

As Boler would say, buckle up!