No, the Jazz Are Not Mediocre

(Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports)

Post-deadline Jazz angst, right on time.

No, none of Mike Conley, Otto Porter, or Nikola Mirotic are in a Jazz uniform. Yes, any of them would have made the team better¹. Yes, it’s fine to be disappointed. When chances to improve the team — which all reports indicate the Jazz pursued seriously — don’t pan out, disappointment is a natural response.

But letting disappointment overcome simple reason is another matter.

In predictable manner, many Jazz fans and even some in the mainstream media have let their disappointment become a morose discouragement that is simply not rational.

This tweet from KSL’s Ben Anderson articulates the sentiment:

Unless something late changes, the Jazz hold steady at the deadline.

1. Jazz missed opportunities to improve this year with Conley, Mirotic & Porter.

2. Jazz can still have $30M in cap space this summer.

3. Nobody in West got better THIS season.

4. Jazz are currently mediocre

— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) February 7, 2019

Numbers one through three, hmm, okay. But number four? Nope, not true, despite how many in Jazzland feel so, and if I might borrow the words Quin Snyder used to castigate Rudy Gobert’s All-Star snubbing, “this is clear, not subjective.”

Let’s remind ourselves what “mediocre” actually means with the Google machine.

At the time of this writing, the following is all true of the status of the Utah Jazz:

• 32-24 record, .571 winning percentage, each good for 6th in the stacked Western Conference
• 7th ranked in ESPN’s Power Index above teams like Houston and Philadelphia
• 8th in FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO rankings above Denver
• 4th best point differential in the West and 9th in the league 
• Tied for 6th in the league in regular season wins over the past three seasons
• One of six teams to reach the Conference Semifinals in the last two playoffs
• Are listed as fringe title contenders by ESPN, FiveThirtyEight, and Basketball-Reference

Now, how does all this change if we factor in age? The Jazz have a 26-year-old star in Gobert and a 22-year-old star in Donovan Mitchell. So, what happens if we filter these results (which already show Utah in fine standing) in terms of age, say, looking for teams with two stars whose combined age clocks in at under 50 years?

• Only the 76ers and Denver² clearly have two young stars and a better record than the Jazz. If you’re willing to add Jaylen Brown to Jason Tatum you can add Boston, and if Myles Turner or Domantas Sabonis really gets you excited maybe, with a stretch, Indiana. That’s it.
• 3rd in ESPN’s Power Index
• 3rd in FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO rankings
• 5th in the league in point differential, 2nd in the West
• 3rd in regular season wins the past two seasons³
• One of three teams to reach the Conference Semifinals last year and be in position for the playoffs again this season
• Chances of reaching the NBA Finals THIS YEAR: 3rd best according to ESPN, FiveThirtyEight, and Basketball-Reference

The Jazz are good basketball team right now. Plus, they have more reason to anticipate substantial future improvement than any but two or three other teams in the league.

So enough of the angst, really.