November Rewind: The Big Questions and Moments From a 9-6 Month

December 2nd, 2021 | by Zarin Ficklin

Rudy Gay provided a jolt of hope with his November debut. (Rick Egan via sltrib.com)

Another month in the books! A quarter of the season completed. Welcome to an experimental column that will check in on some high-level Jazz items near the end of each month. Topics may evolve, but include how Jazz players stack up against the elite of the league on an individual basis, team trends that are relevant for the playoffs, defining moments of the past month, and burning questions to keep an eye on for the next month.

Tracking the Jazz’s award chances throughout the season

The Jazz raked in a treasure trove of individual awards last season: three All-Star selections, an All-NBA selection, an All-Defense selection, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, and Quin Snyder came in third for Coach of the Year.

With roughly the same team, the Jazz could find themselves competing for numerous awards again.

Let’s start with Rudy Gobert. He should be a lock for All-Star and All-Defense honors. He’ll be a strong contender for All-NBA. But his most interesting race is for DPOY. Winning a fourth time would tie him with Dikembe Mutumbo and Ben Wallace for the most trophies. That’s special company.

Voter fatigue could be a significant obstacle, but Gobert is still the Vegas favorite. Anthony Davis is the next closest by some Vegas oddsmakers’ estimations, but the Lakers are scuffling and Davis has not looked as dominant on the defensive end. But awards are narrative driven, and if the Lakers turn it around, no team absorbs more spotlight, and Davis could win major storyline points. Draymond Green appears to be Rudy’s biggest competition at this point. The Warriors share the league’s best record and best defense. Draymond has been phenomenal. While Rudy is once again dominating in all sorts of categories, the Jazz may need to match the Warriors’ league-wide rankings to hold the crown. Especially when you factor in the storylines surroundings the Golden State’s resurgence and voter fatigue.

One last note on Gobert: he could very well earn some MVP votes. Actually winning the award feels like a long shot, but being in the conversation and finishing somewhere in the 5–10 range is not out of the question.

Next is Donovan Mitchell. He’s another All-Star lock. If his 3-point shooting was up to normal we’d be talking about him a lot more. From a numbers standpoint, he’s not too far from last season, where he was a legit All-NBA candidate until his injury. He’s doing some things better this year, including rim finishing and perimeter defense (his steal rate is at an all-time high). He’s shown flashes of better decision making, despite some lapses where he tries to match hot-shooting opponents shot-for-shot. His 3-point shooting should normalize, and Don will hit a hot streak that launches him back into the All-NBA conversations, and maybe beyond. It’s also worth noting that Mitchell is playing about a minute less per game. His scoring stacks up much more favorably against the league’s elite when you use per 36 minutes or per 100 possessions comparisons.

Neither Jordan Clarkson nor Joe Ingles is playing up to their level from last season, when they finished first and second, respectively, for Sixth Man of the Year honors. They both need to cover a lot of ground if they want to catch frontrunner Tyler Herro.

And lastly, Snyder is always a deserving candidate for Coach of the Year, but this award often goes to the most surprising team, and it will be hard for the Jazz to surprise anyone this season after finishing with the best record.

Relevant on-court themes that could translate to the postseason

In some ways, the regular season has lost meaning. The Jazz are expected to perform well, but the playoffs are where they really need to prove themselves. And so this regular season is very much focused on what will most help in the postseason. If the Jazz lose a few more games because they want to keep Conley and other players fresh later, so be it. 

Health is by far the biggest priority. We’ve already seen the Jazz hold Conley out of back-to-back games. Two of those resulted in losses. All of Utah’s top seven players’ minutes are down from last season. This is no surprise.

One key of the regular season is for the Jazz to figure out how to combat play styles that hurt them in the playoffs. The Los Angeles Clippers were unique in their ability to switch everything and play five out. Other teams can replicate that to an extent, but not quite as well as the Clippers — they were a true nightmare matchup.

And yet, many teams are playing the Jazz differently this season. Utah faces switching defense almost on a nightly basis. It’s part of the reason the assist totals are down so much. They’re facing more transition attacks as teams try to strike before Gobert can set up the defense on the interior. More teams are trying to take Gobert out of the paint in a set defense as well, by playing rangier bigs or forcing switches. It’s nothing new. In fact, I’m more surprised that teams continually challenge Gobert one-on-one on the perimeter. Eventually the league will catch on that Rudy is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

The Jazz have faced these playstyles with mixed results. Most of their losses came to teams’ unique schemes. But against the Raptors, the Jazz figured out the right blend of passing and patience to dissect the extra aggressive perimeter defense.

Gobert is attacking smaller defenses more often. Hassan Whiteside has the size and touch to do the same. The regular season will be a valuable tool to keep figuring this out.

Most troubling is Utah’s perimeter defense. While Mitchell and Clarkson are showing more defensive effort, speedy guards can still carve the Jazz up. Using the Toronto game as an example again, Gary Trent Jr. and Fred Van Vleet combined for 55 points. And again against the Grizzlies, where Ja Morant and Desmond Bane combined for 60.

This may just be a roster issue. Mitchell and Conley are smaller players; Clarkson has never been a defensive player; and Ingles has looked slow. Look, every team has weaknesses, and the Jazz may be good enough everywhere else to overcome this. With a healthy Mitchell and Conley, they probably are. But if it continues to be a big enough weakness, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jazz shop one of their backup guards for a perimeter stopper.

When we look back on November, we’ll think of these key moments

Through the first 18 games, it doesn’t feel like the Jazz have had a signature game yet. They have the league’s second best net rating, and they’ve beat good teams. But many of their opponents have had injured stars, and it’s arguable the Jazz haven’t had a true wire-to-wire dominant game, until Monday’s matchup against the Blazers.

It’s been a bit up-and-down. And perhaps the player who best represents that is Clarkson. The reserve guard has had his fair share of “downs,” including an 0-for-21 shooting slump from outside. But that slump made his redemption game against the Hawks on November 4 truly special. He exploded in the second half, finishing the game with 30 points. But the moment was more about confidence and camaraderie than shooting efficiency. Yes, Clarkson has continued to struggle with his shot since then, with an effectively field goal percentage of 47%, and 30% on threes (though on the rise, to be fair). But it doesn’t erase how fun it is to watch Jordan when he’s on, as he was last week against Portland.

Almost made the cut: Rudy Gay’s debut game, where he knocked down 8 of 9 shots and brought hope to Jazz fans after a rough stretch.

Looking forward, what big issues do the Jazz still need to answer?

There are several questions to keep in mind as we move in the December’s slate of games.

1) Will the Jazz figure out their perimeter defense or is a roster change needed?

We’re a few weeks away from many players becoming eligible for trade. It’s clear that the Jazz have a perimeter defense problem, but is it bad enough that the roster needs a shakeup? Now is the time to evaluate as we get close to trade season.

2) Do the Jazz have a focus problem?

The players and coaching staff has said as much: they have lacked focus. Particularly in some recent losses they were heavily favored to win. Fans wring their hands at every loss, and covet the Suns’ and Warriors’ winning streaks. But the Jazz are still on a 55-win pace. They have the top offense. And yes, it’s also true that the team hasn’t looked quite right. But it’s a long season and great teams have rough stretches. Let’s see how the look over the next month — it appears some of their recent losses may have flipped the switch.

3) How high does Rudy Gay raise the team’s ceiling?

Jazz fans are right to be excited about Gay. There’s was tempered enthusiasm before his debut given his 35 years of age and the team’s weakness at the point of attack, but Gay has been nothing but exceptional in his first seven games. He’s averaging 11 points, 5 rebounds, knocking down two and half 3s per game at a 53% clip. He provides length and just plays the right way. It’s hard to ask for much more. But actually — I’m curious how much more the Jazz will ask for him come playoff time. He’s playing 19 minutes per game now, which feels like a good amount for a player with his mileage. But could he be a closer, playing 30+ minutes in the playoffs? If he keeps up this play, the Jazz may need that from him.

His defense is solid, but speedy players can still get past him. The Jazz still need an answer for guard penetration. But Gay’s contributions certainly don’t hurt.

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