Offseason Domino #1- Where Does Mike Conley Want to Play Next Year?

Over the next few days, I will take a look at several aspects of the Jazz offseason. This summer feels very daunting for the Jazz, but it becomes a little bit more simple when you think of their offseason as a “To-Do” list. Next up, chronologically is the draft, but more important, and really the decision that will measure how successful the next 11 months can be for the Jazz rests on Mike Conley’s shoulders.

Before discussing the options that Mike Conley has, it is important to remember that the Jazz have 0% say in where Mike Conley plays next season outside of trying to influence him to come back. Conley is an unrestricted free agent, which means that he is free to choose any team to play with. And if he chooses not to come back to Utah and he tries to engage the Jazz on a sign and trade, they can decide whether they would like to trade with that team, but they have absolutely no say in where they can trade Conley. It’s a tenuous position to be in for sure.

Pic via Clutchpoints.com

So Where Does Mike Conley Want to Play?

Like any free agent, Mike Conley will have to balance salary, role, and a chance to compete for a championship. The Jazz sit in a comfortable position since they can technically offer him as much money as any team and a large role as a starter and vital performer for the team’s success. But can the Jazz offer Conley the best chance to compete? That might be the $100 million question.

For my money, there are 5 teams that could make a valid argument that they can give Mike a better chance at winning a title if he joined them: The Nets, The Clippers, The Lakers, The Sixers, and the Bucks. Milwaukee can only offer Conley $10 million a year and it’s an awkward fit with Jrue Holiday there already, so I think we can cross the Bucks off the list. Mike Conley is not going to want to play with the Nets as long as Kyrie is there and the Clippers, Lakers, and Sixers are almost certainly out of the running for the services of any of the free agent point guards, unless Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, or Conley want to play for mid-level money (they do not).  Chris Paul theoretically has the best chance of forcing his way to the Lakers since he can opt in to his final year, but it would also be hard to convince the Suns to agree to trade away their chance at a championship to a division rival.

Without getting too lost into the weeds of the Collective Bargaining agreement, organizations with high team salaries are incredibly limited in their ability to receive players in a sign and trade. It is one of the measures that produces parity between teams like the Lakers and the Hornets, for instance. This is applicable now to the Jazz, who are operating like a large market team financially. They will be able to trade Mike Conley away, but will not be able to receive a newly signed player in return without triggering a hard cap (traditionally $6 million above the luxury tax, giving them almost no financial flexibility at all. It’s also important to note that without some unlikely cap circumnavigation, or crazy trades, the above mentioned teams, just won’t be able to bring Mike Conley there this summer due to the hard cap. And even though it’s hard to get a feel for how much of a contender the Warriors might become this summer, Conley doesn’t make sense with them either.

BUCKS

LAKERS

WARRIORS

CLIPPERS

NETS

76ERS

But do any of the other teams pose a threat to steal Mike Conley this summer?

Atlanta has no need for Conley’s services and could only offer him the mid level exception anyways.

HAWKS

Charlotte could create enough cap room to make a run at Mike Conley, but they have bigger priorities and we will assume that Conley doesn’t want to take the same, or less money, to play with a lesser contender than the Jazz.

HORNETS

Chicago, Cleveland, and Toronto are in similar boats as Charlotte, but none of them provide a better winning situation, so for that reason, they are all out. I could definitely see Chicago having interest in Conley, but I’d be surprised if he preferred their situation to Utah. Jazz also couldn’t acquire Lauri Markkanen in a sign and trade for the same hard cap reasons. I only bring this up because I know lots of Jazz fans on social media are hoping to land him.

BULLS

CAVS

RAPTORS

Denver has Murray and no cap space. Detroit, Houston, Orlando and Washington are in rebuilds, even if the Wizards won’t admit it. Portland has one too many small guards as it is. Minnesota has Russell and no cap space. New Orleans isn’t there yet and wouldn’t sign Conley one year after trading Jrue Holiday away. Sacramento has Fox. Phoenix will be trying to bring Chris Paul back and if they don’t, I can’t imagine Conley making a lateral move to a team that has so many unknowns organizationally (unless Mike just wants to play golf every off day). He probably does, so Phoenix is a dark horse suitor.

NUGGETS

PISTONS

ROCKETS

WIZARDS

BLAZERS

TIMBERWOLVES

PELICANS

KINGS

SUNS  (If Chris Paul resigns in Phoenix)

MAGIC

The Celtics certainly have a need at point guard now and can offer Conley a winning situation, if not a championship one. But if the Celtics want to retain the services of Evan Fournier, they run into the same hard cap problems as the other teams mentioned above. But while I don’t think the Celtics make sense this offseason, they could potentially be a trade partner down the line if Conley resigns with the Jazz, given that they have tradeable contracts in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. Keep Boston in mind 11 months from now.

CELTICS

The Pacers deserve their own paragraph only because Mike Conley was born there, but trading Malcolm Brogdon for a signed Mike Conley brings up similar hard cap ramifications and feels like a move that only gets the Pacers wins in the “feel good” department. I can’t imagine this being a thing.

PACERS

Oklahoma City and San Antonio both have the cap space to blow Conley away with an offer, but there is no way the Thunder are interested in doing that. I would say the same about the Spurs, but who knows? The Spurs have been avoiding a necessary rebuild for 10 seasons, it feels like, and I can’t imagine Conley wanting to be part of a fake contender, even though Conley and Gregg Popovich feels like a match made in heaven.

SPURS

THUNDER

Could you imagine a reunion in Memphis, since the Grizzlies can make a large offer to a free agent? Me neither. Although, if that is what Mike really wanted, best of luck to him, I suppose.

GRIZZLIES

The Utah Jazz, will you accept this rose?

Which brings us to an exciting conclusion of the Bachelorette…no, wait. I mean the Mike Conley offseason sweepstakes. At the end of the day, only the Heat, the Mavericks, and the Knicks can offer a package enticing enough to lure Mike Conley away from Salt Lake City, if we assume that Chris Paul stays with the Suns. Let’s talk about them individually:

The Knicks provide Mike Conley the unique opportunity to get paid and play in one of the great basketball cities in the world. It’s important to note that the Knicks can also make the same offer to Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry, who I think are just a notch ahead of Conley in the point guard free agent pecking order. I wouldn’t personally bet on Mike Conley picking the Knicks, but they definitely have a lot to offer, besides $170 million. They are worth mentioning. I mean…have you ever had a pastrami sandwich at Katz deli? I’ll have what she’s having.

After the last 3 weeks of watching the Bucks, it’s hard to pitch Miami as having a better winning situation than the Jazz. You could have easily made this argument a month ago, however. Again CP3 and Lowry are probably higher on Miami’s wishlist, but Miami just has this free agency thing to them. They are like my high school’s version of Robbie Harmon. It doesn’t matter how much Rachel loves you, part of her teenage heart will always be with Robbie Harmon. You could have had anyone, Robbie. Why Rachel? The point of the matter is that I think Kyle Lowry ends up in a Heat uniform next season.

The Mavericks and Conley have been linked together in the NBA ethernet as a good match, and I agree that on paper, the Mavs seem like Jeff, waiting in the wings ready to steal Kelli Kapowski. But I just don’t see it happening, due to the fact that it would take the Mavericks losing both Tim Hardaway jr and Josh Richardson in free agency, or trading Kristaps Porzingis into cap space. I don’t see the Mavericks doing that, just to free up a chance to sign Mike Conley jr. If Mike were willing to play for the Mavericks for less than $20 million a year, then Dallas MIGHT be able to persuade Conley and THJ to be in Dallas this offseason, but I just don’t see it happening. If Mike Conley takes less money to play with Dallas, or agrees to a larger deal to join a depleted Mavericks team that has huge questions surrounding the future of their Latvian big man, then Mike Conley probably didn’t want to be in Utah in the first place. The same is probably true if the Suns lose Chris Paul and Conley goes there as a replacement.

PREDICTION TIME

Let’s get to what you all came for, and for what some of you may have found immediately by scrolling to the bottom of the story. I have significantly less sources within the Jazz organization than I did five years ago, but the feeling I got from anyone close to the team after the season, was at best, guarded optimism that Conley would return. But with a few weeks time to get over the fresh wounds of the playoff loss, and after looking at the tea leaves of the league, it would be surprising if Mike Conley weren’t in a Jazz uniform next season. It’s obvious from his comments that Mike will definitely look at all of his options and I think deep down he believes that there are other teams that offer a better chance for him to win a title as a main piece. But I don’t think those teams can pay him enough to make it worth it. Even if Mike Conley doesn’t finish his contract in a Jazz uniform, it makes the most sense for  Mike and the Jazz to have him come back next season. The Jazz HAVE to bring back Mike Conley. It’s offseason priority number 1.

Mike Conley will sign a 3 year, $75 million deal with the Jazz.