Offseason Targets Part II: Big Wings Who Can Defend, Shoot

Iwundu, Harrison and Brown are three young wings who have made their mark defensively.

The Utah Jazz are still trying to break into the contender class, and as we’ve been saying, they’re not that far off. With a couple of superstar-level guys at the top of the roster and a handful of complementary quasi-stars and key contributors, this squad needs depth, not starpower, to turn the corner.

We already speculated as to who fits the bill to supplement the rotation up front, focusing around paint-protecting, rim-finishing types like former Jazz big man Derrick Favors. But that’s not all the Jazz need to add if they’re going to assemble a rotation worthy of contender status. Utah needs another big, defensive wing.

The Jazz don’t necessarily even need another shot creator or pick-and-roll facilitator. Don’t get me wrong, teams would always welcome another star-level creator into their ecosystem if one fell from the sky, but the Jazz don’t need that type of move to round the corner toward contention. With Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic, they have more than enough guys who can generate offense — more so if they also find a way to keep free agent Jordan Clarkson.

What they actually need more of is the kind of stuff Royce O’Neale does.

At his best, O’Neale is the perfect modern wing to complement a roster heavy on shot creators. He hits 40% of his catch-and-shoot threes, can put the ball on the floor when he has to, and he is both physical and quick enough to guard nearly anybody on the court.

But there’s only one of him, and so particularly when they need to employ his defensive skills against opposing guards (as they did against Jamal Murray in the playoffs), that leaves Utah a little small defensively at other spots. They need another big body to defend and knock down open shots.

The ideal template

If you could create the ideal wing in a laboratory for the Jazz’s 7th/8th man role next season, you’d start with someone who has some of the same defensive chops that O’Neale and even Ingles share.

Those two, it turns out, are both above average at defending pick-and-roll ball handlers and iso scorers, per NBA data that tracks the per-possession outcomes based on the end user of the play. They also both have an overall positive defensive impact, as measured by Defensive Player-Impact Plus/Minus and ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus. And on the other end, both are good spot-up shooters.

So it turns out that the Jazz have a type. And it’s more rare than you might think.

Only 16 wings in the entire NBA finished the regular season with a positive D-PIPM, 35% or better on catch-and-shoot threes, and above the 50th percentile when guarding both of those play types. Sixteen. And the Jazz employ two of them. 

The remaining list is a who’s who of the league’s best two-way talents and/or top 3-and-D prototypes. The list features All-Stars like (in descending D-PIPM order) Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Khris Middleton, James Harden, Gordon Hayward and LeBron James. It also features known 3-and-D weapons like Wesley Matthews, O.G. Anunoby, Trevor Ariza and Gary Harris. Then there are up-and-comers like Matysse Thybulle, Bruce Brown and Brandon Clarke. It’s an impressive group.

But only one person from that list of two-way difference-making wings is a 2020 free agent: Milwaukee’s Sterling Brown. (Note: he’s a restricted free agent.)

Sterling Brown is a 3-year veteran who has mostly been a casualty of Milwaukee loading up on veterans as they prepared for a title run. Brown has been a positive contributor, but the Bucks kept adding veterans to the back of their rotation, pushing Brown to the fringes. He wound up 12th on the team in minutes per game, even though his playing time has largely been productive. If the Bucks are ready to let him walk, he seems to match what the Jazz like to get from their defensive wings.

Getting an RFA would be hard with Utah’s current assets, though. They could dip into the Mid-Level Exception of up to $9 million, but that may be earmarked for the bigs we discussed in Part I. If they don’t have the MLE available, the best they can do for an offer sheet would be the Bi-Annual Exception: 2 years, $7 million and change. Unless a player is just not in his current team’s plans, that’s a very matchable offer.

Three others on that elite list of 3-and-D wings could wind up in free agency, but it’s not very likely. Bruce Brown is fully non-guaranteed for next season, but his production in a solid role (28 minutes per game) make it unlikely that the Pistons would cut him. And if they did, he would likely be claimed off waivers. We’ll discuss Matthews (player option) and Ariza (partial guarantee) below.

The Jazz will likely conduct a search that is wider than those four arbitrary criteria. Let’s look at other free agent wings with positive defensive numbers.

Big wings with positive defensive impact

As with the free agent bigs we explored earlier, I started by narrowing the list to wings with a positive D-PIPM. This too is somewhat arbitrary, but it’s at least a jumping-off point for understanding overall defensive impact.

Teams with title aspirations often focus their search on the veteran specialists in any given role. Matthews is the best of the aging 3-and-D options, with an elite D-PIPM and excellent on-ball numbers. But he will only decline his $2.7 million option if it means more money elsewhere, and I’m not sure how high Utah would bid for the 34-year-old. Similarly, the 35-year-old Ariza will hit free agency only if Portland decides to cut costs — only $1.8 million of his $12.2 million salary is guaranteed. If he winds up on the market, he’ll have other suitors.

Justin Holiday fits the 3-and-D prototype perfectly, and is younger than Matthews and Ariza. But Holiday plays starter-type minutes for Indiana. It would probably require the full MLE — and a reallocation of wing minutes — to get him. Kent Bazemore is overpaid on his current deal, but he’ll be a free agent after another nice defensive season (+1.91 D-PIPM) in a limited role. Courtney Lee is an established 3-and-D guy who played with Conley in Memphis, but he’s about to turn 35 and has played sparingly the last two season.

There are plenty of younger wings who have shown defensive abilities, too. That’s where Sterling Brown comes in, but two other semi-realistic RFA wing options are Wesley Iwundu and Shaquille Harrison. Both are solid defenders with NBA size, length and builds, with improving 3-point shots (38% for Harrison last year, 34% for Iwundu). Their NBA bodies and defensive peskiness intrigue me, and yet both have had inconsistent roles with their current teams, which could indicate that they might be gettable. (More reading on Harrison and Iwundu‘s defense.)

Any of Brown, Iwundu and Harrison would be excellent fits with plenty of upside to keep growing. Utah will likely listen for any clue that the incumbent teams might not match an offer.

Other RFA wings are less realistic. Taurean Prince is an above-average defender and a decent outside shooter, but Brooklyn will match reasonable offers. Same goes for Kris Dunn, a wing stopper whose wingspan somewhat makes up for his 6-foot-3 height and shaky shooting, but who Chicago would prefer to keep. Fellow Bull RFA Denzel Valentine is a little small too, but has shown some defensive ability off and on, and he’s a better spot-up shooter.

More RFAs who probably don’t fit: De’Anthony Melton and Jevon Carter are both defensive pests, but they’re both undersized for the wing and would make Utah’s rotation even smaller. Kenrich Williams and DeAndre’ Bembry have legit wing size, but aren’t really shooters. Dwayne Bacon has size and shooting chops, but has posted negative value over replacement in each of his three pro seasons. 

If Utah wants to avoid the RFA drama, there are other UFA veterans with positive defensive value. Moe Harkless and Wilson Chandler are hybrid forwards with experience, but they’re not exactly 1-on-1 stoppers, and both in the low 30s on catch-and-shoot 3s. Andre Roberson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and DeMarre Carroll are plus defenders, but all are occasionally left alone by defenses because they’re not outside threats. Evan Turner, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Jakarr Sampson and Corey Brewer have all seen their roles decline for the same reason. Jae Crowder is not really a wing and not really a stopper, but he knows Utah’s philosophy — if they could afford him after a stellar postseason. 

If we relax the criteria on D-PIPM, you can add Malik Beasley (RFA), Gary Clark (RFA), Pat Connaughton, Troy Daniels and Kyle Korver to the list of possible targets. Those guys all rate well as shooters and on the defensive play types listed above, but have slightly negative D-PIPM. (Austin Rivers too, if you consider him a wing.)

Utah could also look at drafting someone who they felt filled the profile of a solid defender with catch-and-shoot skills, although very few rookies contribute meaningfully in year one. Or they might feel as though Miye Oni or Jarrell Brantley could slide into that role, but so far there is limited evidence that either is ready to be the 8th or 9th best guy on a title-contending outfit.

Prioritizing finite assets

The Jazz have two primary areas of need, but only a finite number of tools to fill them. So these two decisions — which big and which wing to pursue — will certainly impact each other.

Basically, the options are:

• Prioritize the big man spot with the MLE, targeting someone like Favors, and address the wing depth with cheaper assets, such as the veteran at the minimum (Lee? Bazemore?) or by figuring out if they can poach a restricted young guy (Brown/Harrison/Iwundu) with the BAE.
• Sign a better wing with the MLE (Holiday?), and then settle for a bargain-tier big man like Ian Mahinmi or Alex Len.
• Split the difference: the MLE can be divided up, so the Jazz could potentially vie for a big in the Aron Baynes/ Mike Muscala/ Nerlens Noel tier AND a wing like Matthews (if he opts out), while still preserving the BAE for next season (or to pursue one of those young RFAs as a development signing).

Personally, I’d stick to option 1. A Favors-level acquisition up front does more to bump Utah’s title odds than the difference between Holiday and (for example) Harrison or Lee in the 8th man role. If the Jazz struck out with impact bigs, they could rethink and pivot toward Holiday or the split-MLE option.

If the Jazz do go the budget route on the wing, they still have to determine whether the right solution is an established veteran or a rising young guy. The latter is the preference here. Utah’s best players are 24 and 28, so it’s hard not to like the idea of a younger guy who can continue to get better with the superstar duo. And since three of the club’s main six guys  are already over 30, injecting some youth and athleticism into their rotation couldn’t hurt, rather than adding someone on the downward slope.

So consider this an endorsement of the youthful RFA options: Harrison, Brown and Iwundu, if any one of them becomes available at a price point Utah can manage with its remaining assets. 

The Jazz could also test the waters with their limited trade assets. Between picks, player rights and some young prospects on favorable deals, they could potentially entice another front office to dance with them. If they’re able to first find a landing spot for Ed Davis, they might even have a trade exception they could use to absorb some salary. Trading firsts is complicated for the Jazz right now (because of the Conley trade), but they have Golden State’s second in 2021 and their own picks from 2022 on. 

Whatever way they do it, a rim-finishing, paint-protecting big and one more big bodied defensive wing would make all the difference for Utah. Let’s say for the sake of argument that they added Favors as Gobert’s backup and then staggered the two for 3-4 minutes together per half, and also added Harrison as their defensive wing.

• C: Gobert (34), Favors (14)
• PF: Bogdanovic (32), O’Neale (8), Favors (8)
• SF: O’Neale (18), Harrison (20), Ingles (10)
• SG: Mitchell (34), Ingles (14)
• PG: Conley (28), Clarkson (20)*

(*Mitchell/Ingles is really the PG in Clarkson lineups.)

Alternatively, they could split the MLE between, say, Baynes/Muscala and one of those RFAs, and see if they can lure a vet at the minimum for added depth. They could sniff around Noel’s or Plumlee’s asking price, too. This is going to be a weird market. Some guys are going to wind up signing far cheaper deals than what they’re worth in a vacuum. There are obviously a lot of variables. We still don’t know if Clarkson will stay either.

But some version of that rotation works. That roster has everything. Size. Defense. Playmaking. Shooting. 48 minutes of P&R finishing and rim protection. Multiple guys who excel at guarding the ball. They can go big or go small. They can go defense-heavy or put five scorers on the court together. 

And most importantly, they can compete with anybody when healthy.