O’Neale’s Rough Start Raises Questions on the Wing

So far, O’Neale hasn’t had the same impact on the 2018-19 Jazz that he had during his rookie season. (Trevor Ruszkowski via USA TODAY)

Utah’s uneven 14-17 start has led fans, pundits and even national media to speculate about what’s wrong with the Jazz. Is it the defense or the lack of a second scoring option behind Donovan Mitchell? It’s certainly not the drinking water in Utah because the Jazz have barely spent time in their home state this season, which is actually a strong indicator of the issue itself. The Jazz have played so many road games that it is having a noticeable effect on the players and their consistency. If you don’t believe me, check the 3-point shooting numbers of known sharpshooters Joe Ingles and Kyle Korver over the last five games.  

The difficult schedule has already been covered and we know relief is coming soon after another brutal stretch into early January. What fewer people are talking about is the impact of a particular player on the Jazz: Royce O’Neale. The second-year wing has slid under the radar because he’s not a starter and is not even the first man off the bench, but perhaps his importance to the bench, and the team overall, has been understated. So I’m going to do what Mitchell sarcastically said he loves: I’m going to play armchair coach and propose a change in how Royce is utilized, at least for now. 

Last season, Royce was seemingly the future 3-and-D lockdown defender the Jazz would need to be a contender. A discount version of Trevor Ariza. This season has been quite a different story. He has not had the same impact he had as a rookie, and that has made it difficult for Utah to be competitive even on defense, where O’Neale was really special last season. 

One of the the hot topics for the last year and a half has been whether the Jazz defense can hold up when Rudy Gobert is on the bench and Derrick Favors is anchoring the floor as the 5. Last year, that was a resounding no. This season, it may not be the case. In fact, there may be evidence to suggest that the actual cornerstone to Utah’s defense is someone else. 

Jazz defense with….

Gobert and Ingles ON: 105.3 Drtg
Gobert OFF, Ingles ON: 102.3 Drtg
Gobert ON, Ingles OFF: 111.9 Drtg
Gobert and Ingles OFF: 116.3 Drtg

— Ben Dowsett (@Ben_Dowsett) December 13, 2018

The Jazz’s defense is actually elite when Ingles plays with one of Gobert or Favors — good enough to be the league’s best defense by a wide margin. It’s okay when the trio plays together. 

Noteworthy:

237 mins of Rudy, Ingles, Favors: 104.9 DRTG

204 min of Ingles/Favors without Rudy : 95.3 DRTG

442 min of Rudy/Ingles without Favors: 95.9 DRTG.

So that points to an extra wing defender being ESSENTIAL to the Jazz D. Two centers has to go

— Justin Rowan 🇨🇦 (@Cavsanada) December 13, 2018

Whether Rudy or Favors is the five, the defense is in trouble when Joe sits. Now, you could jump the the immediate and apparently logical conclusion that Joe Ingles is the new “defense unto himself,” but I don’t think that’s quite true. More than likely, this is a reflection on what happens when Ingles is off the floor.

Who is almost always on the floor when Joe Ingles is not? Royce. O’Neale also covers some of Mitchell’s minutes at the 2 spot, but the role he tends to serve off the bench as the big wing defender. That means he’s usually playing opposite Ingles and Korver in the rotation. 

Lineup data at Basketball Reference spells out the current predicament. Lineups with O’Neale in them pretty much all perform worse than the same surrounding foursomes play with Korver or Ingles in the same spot. For further evidence that O’Neale isn’t having the same impact, here are the Net Ratings for all of the Jazz’s rotation regulars.

• Joe Ingles: +16.2
• Rudy Gobert: +8.7
• Ricky Rubio: +6.3
• Donovan Mitchell: +1.9
• Jae Crowder: -1.5
• Derrick Favors: -5.4
• Royce O’Neale: -10.0
• Dante Exum: -1.8
• Kyle Korver: -5.5
• Thabo Sefolosha: +1.2
• Raul Neto: -4.6

Notice that Joe is a team-leading +16.2 and Royce is a team-worst -10.0. 

It might be time to consider allocating some of those minutes elsewhere. There’s been a recent tussle for minutes between Neto and Exum at the backup point guard spot. And all kinds of Exum supporters have been clamoring for him to get more minutes, claiming that Quin Snyder is stifling Exum’s development by limiting his floor time. Maybe it doesn’t have to be that way.

Dante is an excellent defender and he’s shown that most of the time he’s been on the court this season. He’s made some mistakes on both ends, but he’s also shown he learns on the job. He may not be ready to run the entire offense and he’s a switchy, fast, guard who can play alongside Rubio, Mitchell and Neto. If he can play some of the backup wing minutes and become the primary wing defender and wing playmaker in Ingles’ absence, perhaps an improvement would follow in how the team performs with Ingles on the bench. At the very least, the “Twitter coaches” that Mitchell called out would be satisfied.  

Of  course, in this scenario Royce is the spurned party. He would lose minutes and playing time. But it’s also hard to justify keeping him on the floor if Utah is going to continue to lose by 10 points per 100 possessions when he plays. Until Royce can prove through spot minutes that he’s going to be a positive player off the bench and the anchor on the wing, it might be better to find minutes for both Exum and Neto, letting the former take O’Neale’s place in the wing rotation.