Writer Panel: First Half Surprises and Predictions For Final 41

How will the 20-21 Jazz fare in the next 41 games? (Melissa Majchrzak via utahjazz.com)

The Utah Jazz’s season is halfway over, so a team of SCH writers got together to answer questions about the 41 down and the 41 to go.

What has been the most pleasant surprise in first half of the season?

Clint Johnson: I have to say the trade for Kyle Korver by default. Honestly, not much about this season has surprised me. Trades are always energizing (not always in good ways though), and there was good reason to believe Alec Burks wasn’t a long-term part of this roster. So that a trade was made wasn’t surprising, but Korver being its target was a pleasant surprise. If nothing else, it does attest to Utah being in win-now mode.

Clark Schmutz: This seems like a terrible answer after the past week’s events, but the fact that the Jazz’s main guys have mostly avoided games missed due to injuries from has been a very pleasant surprise.

David J. Smith: Rudy Gobert has taken his already impactful game up a notch. No Jazz player has been more consistent. His continued improvement offensively only enhances the way he changes the game. While he suffered a slower start defensively, he has returned to DPOY form—evidenced by some truly dominant stretches on that end the past few weeks. Should Utah go on a nice streak, the towering Frenchman could earn his first All-Star appearance. The team’s heart should also find himself in prime position to “defend” his DPOY status.

Jonathan Turnbow: Burks seemed to be having his first year where he belonged in Quin Snyder’s system. However, Alec is not on the team anymore after being dealt for Korver. It has been a breath of fresh air to have Kyle on the squad again. Alec Burks’ play leading up to the trade was pleasantly surprising in itself, and now I’m pleasantly surprised with what a perfect fit Korver has been for the role he plays for the Jazz.

Dan Clayton: All good answers, so I’ll add a new one: Dante Exum looking like a competent, confident, attacking guard. Especially given some of his early struggles, it has been extremely encouraging to see him improve (almost overnight) in terms of paint finishing and reading the defense out of pick-and-roll action. 

Thatcher Olson: Korver. The Jazz made a trade that they knew would benefit the team, and they got a former Jazz favorite. The Jazz badly needed a jump in their three-point shooting, and Korver has brought that. Burks was a fan favorite and a great guy, but his style just wasn’t what the Jazz needed. While it hasn’t lead to a huge win increase so far, it has had a big impact on their team, and should help them with their easier second half schedule. 

What has been the most un-pleasant surprise so far?

Clint: How poorly the Jazz played early in the season — not just that they lost some curious games but that they lost BAD. A 50-point loss in Dallas? Losing a pair to Indiana by a combined 60 points? While I wasn’t surprised wins were so hard to come by early in the year, I certainly was by just how horrid Utah’s play was for a fairly long stretch of time.

Clark: Donovan Mitchell’s efficiency. I’m not very worried about Donovan and he’s going to be really good long term, but I hoped that we would get more spot up shots this season, not less. He looks like he is trying to do too much and I get that mentality, but his overall efficiency has really hurt the Jazz at times this season. Again, he’s going to be fine long-term and he’ll have huge moments in the playoffs this season.

David: The awful stretches where the team looks lost offensively has been hard to stomach. Even on nights where the threes are falling and the ball is moving, there are inevitably some incredibly painful lulls where one wonders when the next basket will finally come. Sometimes, the team is doing all the right things—making the extra pass, screening, moving sans the ball and getting open looks. But the shots just don’t fall. Worse are the moments where discombobulation is the best way to describe the execution. Fortunately, these stretches are happening less frequently. Korver’s addition has definitely aided with this.

Jonathan: The defense. It took far too long for the defense to play at an elite level. After going through the growing pains of last year and figuring out chemistry with all of the new guys, most of Jazz Nation assumed this year they wouldn’t have to go through that learning stage. I felt like the Jazz should have been elite defensively from the start of the year irregardless of where the offense is night in and night out- the defense should always be the team’s cup of tea.

Dan: There are some minor issues with depth pieces — I’d have liked to see Grayson Allen earn more minutes by this point, and Thabo Sefolosha hasn’t quite played up to all the preseason “he’s back” buzz. But without a doubt, the biggest letdown has been Mitchell struggling with the new level of defensive attention. His shooting numbers are down in every zone except long twos, and there are times when it feels like his playmaking has stagnated, too. It’s smart of Snyder to let him figure it out by continuing to be aggressive, but he needs to have a big second half now that the schedule will let up.

What has been the defining moment of the season so far?

Clint: The buzzer-beating tip-in by Jonas Jerebko that cost Utah their first game against Golden State. It kind of approximates how the season has gone to this point. Where last season ended with nearly everything going right, things have so often been a slog this year. And even when the team plays well for long stretches, as they did against the champs, things like Jerebko’s tip or unlikely performances (Kawhi Leonard’s career high for example) have really taken a toll.

Clark: Lately there has been Donovan telling off a fan for firing him up, and Joe Ingles waving to “somebody” after hitting a big three, but overall the defining “moment” for this team is the fact that they still enjoy each other. They still have poke fun at each other on social media, even though this has been a road-weary season so far. The best play of the season was Donovan’s one handed alley-oop on Christmas Day.

David: Jae Crowder clearly wanted to deliver a message to the Celtics when they visited Salt Lake City. After all, they jettisoned the forward in favor of former Jazzman Gordon Hayward, just when he thought he had found a home in Boston. We know the result: he torched them, including a clutch three in the fourth that helped seal the victory. As he was doing the walk-off interview, Snyder came over and the two sincerely embraced… a coach who was sincerely happy for his player. Mitchell’s response on Twitter showed the loyalty this team has for each other and for Snyder. It showed to me, that despite the roller coaster of a first half, the team is unified. Its camaraderie will be a huge thing in the second half of the season, as the schedule finally lightens up.

Jonathan: Rudy’s ejection. Frustration with the officiating. Frustration with the scheduling. Frustration from the offense not clicking. Rudy let it all out and the Jazz really fought for him while he was in the locker room on the bicycle. The team bonded that night and really locked in. 

Dan: I don’t know if it was the most memorable, but the 38-assist, 20-triple night against San Antonio showed what the team can do when the execution is sharp. Of course, then the Jazz shot under 30 percent from deep in four of their next six games (and 31% in another). As much as anything, that dichotomy has defined the season. Make or miss and all that.

Thatcher: It has to be the win(s) over Boston. The Jazz have been up and down, but they won the rematch over Hayward. Gordon returning was a huge deal for Jazz fans (whether they booed or cheered), and it was likely a bigger deal than Hayward or the Jazz let on, too. For them to win these games and for Mitchell and former Celtic Crowder to have big games was a big deal. 

The Jazz will make the playoffs if…

Clint: …a healthy Ricky Rubio makes layups. To me, it’s that simple. Someone other than Mitchell has to be able to score at the rim because every single defense the Jazz face has three goals: 1) no Mitchell layups; 2) no open rolls for Jazz bigs out of the pick and roll; and 3) no open threes for Korver or Ingles. Rubio can get a quality shot at the rim on nearly every play as teams try to quash these other facets of the offense. When he makes them, everything loosens up.

Clark: …Rudy Gobert plays 75 games

David: First off, I am in the camp that I think the Jazz easily earn a postseason berth. They have played so much better the past three weeks. That, combined with an easier schedule, bodes well. But a major key to this predicted success is this: Mitchell needs to continue to make the positive changes to his game as he has recently. This includes not settling for jumpers/taking the ball to the basket, earning trips to the free throw line and slowing things down offensively. The second half against Detroit was a perfect example of this. Mitchell let the game come to him, and he read things very well. He knew when to shoot and he knew when to set up his teammates. It was a star performance by, well, a star. 

Jonathan: No one player is going to make or break the playoffs for the Jazz. The Jazz will make the playoffs. All I can think of is #TeamIsEverything and how the strength of this team is the team. If the Utah Jazz play team basketball and they don’t have any significant injuries along the way, they will make the playoffs.

Dan: …they remain (get) relatively healthy. This is a playoff team. Every qualitative model that weighs schedule and opponent quality still sees the Jazz as a top-five Western team. But they are going to have nights where the offense is stuck — especially while they wait on a pair of mending point guards. Health is key.

Thatcher: If Mitchell shows some consistency. Though I don’t think this is the make or break season for Donovan, he can lead the Jazz to a second-half push and top four record into the playoffs. He has started off January stronger, shooting 44 percent from the floor and 47 percent from three in five games, and that needs to continue. Gobert has elevated his play lately, and more of the same would be welcome from Donovan. Though, as NBA scouts seem to agree, next year is the real measuring stick for Donovan. 

Give us a relatively bold prediction for the second half.

Clint: By season’s end, Exum will be Utah’s most important bench player. Exum was coming off perhaps the best stretch of his career when he sprained his ankle. (Like no one saw that coming.) If that is representative of what he might contribute the rest of the season, he becomes a very important player. Utah desperately needs a non-Mitchell guard to score at the rim and a defender to check players too fast for Rubio. Exum will be that player.

Clark: The Jazz will take advantage of the softer schedule and fight their way into the playoffs with a 47-35 record. But since that isn’t very bold, I’ll add that they will make one more trade this season that nobody sees coming.

David: Not sure if these fit the bold category, but here are a few prognostications for the Jazz:

• They will hit the 50-win mark. Yes, that means at least a 30-11 finish. A tall order, but I think it will happen.
• They subsequently snag homecourt advantage in the first round.
• Upon his return, Exum continues to be the—pun intended—X-factor for the team’s second half success.
• Gobert maintains his NBA lead in field goal percentage.
• The Jazz make a trade in February that very few saw coming.

Jonathan: WORST case scenario the Jazz finish 5th in the West. They are in a better position than they were in last year and they barely missed out on the 3rd or 4th seed. I predict the Jazz land in the 3rd seed when it’s all said and done. Buckle up!

Dan: Ingles goes off in the second half. As in, at some point he’ll have something close to a 55 percent month from three.

Thatcher: The Jazz will take over the number one spot in defensive rating. The Jazz are currently fifth, but are tied for first over the last fifteen games with San Antonio. Oklahoma City has a big lead, but Utah’s easier slate combined with a more difficult OKC schedule will be enough for the Jazz to take the lead by the end of the season. Ultimately the Jazz will have the top defensive rating, top 15 offensive rating, and top five overall net rating. 

—

Second half starts now. Enjoy, and follow along with the fun at Salt City Hoops!