Panel: Jazz Look to Slow Harden, Unleash Mitchell’s Playoff Encore

What can Utah expect from rising star Donovan Mitchell in his second postseason? (Bill Baptist via Rockets.com)

Utah’s first-round playoff series against Houston kicks off this weekend, with a 7:30 p.m. (MDT) tip-off on Sunday for Game 1.

Ahead of the series, a panel of SCH writers got together to share perspectives on the series, Jazz star Donovan Mitchell, and other key players and themes.

Thanks to some improbable comebacks on the final night of the regular season, Utah winds up with Houston as a first-round opponent instead of Portland. How much does that impact their chances of advancing?

Thatcher Olson: While Houston is likely the best of the teams in seeds two through eight, I don’t think they’re remarkably better than the field. Utah went from a slight favorite against Portland to a moderate underdog against Houston. However, series Utah would have had in the first round would have been tough, and that doesn’t change. The Jazz will be extra motivated by Houston. They’ve beat other middling Western Conference playoff teams the past two years and have faced the best (Golden State and Houston) and come up short. Whether this year or in the future, the Jazz know the next step is to beat the very best, and this is a chance to do it right off the bat. The Jazz will be motivated and hungry to prove themselves. That doesn’t mean getting a cakewalk to the Western Conference Finals, it means beating the conference’s best (or second best) team.

Jonathan Turnbow: Portland can’t perform in the playoffs. Period. The Rockets have two Hall-of-Fame players on their roster, so it’s a more difficult series. But how does that affect their chances of advancing? The Jazz will advance regardless. You don’t think this team is chomping at the bit to get revenge on the Rockets? 

Ken Clayton: Bad news: Houston is the second best team in the conference, and probably has the best shot at beating the Warriors, so they will absolutely be harder to beat in a seven-game series than the Blazers. While the Blazers with Dame Lillard weren’t going to be a pushover, I fully believed that Quin Snyder and crew would take advantage of the absence of Jusuf Nurkic. I would have picked the Jazz in six games, and would have considered five. Good news: there’s reason to believe that the Jazz are the third best team in the west, so all is not lost. Donovan Mitchell, who was so brilliant in the first round series against the Thunder last year, found the Rocket defense much more difficult. I think he will fare better in this series, thanks to his growth as a player and Houston missing two 6-foot-8 guys who are noted defenders.

Dane Coles: It’s clearly significant considering Nurkic was a major reason why the Blazers beat the Jazz during the regular season with his pick-and-roll action. But his absence would indicate a clear Jazz advantage in the post. Facing a hot Rockets team is a much more daunting challenge. But it is a challenge the Jazz are up for and they’ve made it clear they don’t care who they face. It’s more about playing their best basketball entering the playoffs.

David J. Smith: The way things transpired over the last week of the season—Wednesday in particular—still astounds me. While Portland still would have been a very worthy, challenging opponent, Houston posts a different, slightly more difficult obstacle. While both teams boast potent, stellar back courts, the difference in Clint Capela and Enes Kanter is a big one. The Rockets are well coached, have some guys capable of getting hot quickly and demonstrated strong defense to finish the season. That said, these are not the same two squads who battled last year. In my opinion, Houston is not quite as good, while Utah is a bit better. And hopefully healthier.  

What is the Jazz’s best chance at stopping/slowing James Harden?

Thatcher: A whole series of articles could be written about this. But to sum it up, stick to their game plan and do what has worked in the past. They contained him reasonably well in last year’s playoffs, and they’ve seen examples of what can be done to limit him (force him left, force too large of a load on him, try not to be baited into fouling, etc). Snyder may have a plan to let Harden get his and limit his teammates, or he may decide to overload on Harden and force the ancillary pieces to make plays. It won’t be easy, but Snyder and the Jazz are equipped to make it difficult on Harden as well.

Jonathan: Jinglin’ Joe. I don’t know if it’s possible but if it is it’s a combination of Joe Ingles, Royce O’Neale and Jae Crowder giving him different looks while Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors make it difficult in the paint. 

Ken: The Jazz did a decent job on Harden already last season. He scored 28 ppg, but took 22 shots per game to get there, thanks to sub-Harden .404/.295 shooting. They will try defend him with a variety of players: smaller guys with more speed, longer guys who will try to bother him. News flash: to the extent possible, they need to keep him off the free throw line, where the Jazz sent him a little more often than his other playoff opponents. To be honest, I’m not that worried about that, now that Patrick Beverley gave Crowder the lowdown on defending the Beard. Consider that objective accomplished.

Dane: I feel like this is a trick question. Honestly, there isn’t much they can do. He’s so crafty and absolutely lethal with the ball in his hands. They will do the typical: don’t let him drive left, force him off the three point line and funnel him to Gobert. The key will be taking away other key players like Chris Paul. Harden can’t singlehandedly win four playoffs games, he needs his team.

David: The Jazz did what they could to throw different players at the MVP last year. While Dante Exum’s absence will be noticeable, an improved O’Neale and an available Ricky Rubio will help a lot. Along with Mitchell and Ingles, Utah will be able to throw different looks Harden’s ways. The Jazz would be wise to overplay and force him to his right, banking on Gobert and Favors to help meet him.  

Last season, Donovan Mitchell joined the Admiral, Chuck Person and MJ as only four rookies in the 16-team playoff era to average 24-plus postseason points, although he struggled a bit in the second round. What do you think he has in store this year?

Thatcher: As has been mentioned, Houston doesn’t have the same personnel as last year to really bother Mitchell (chiefly the departed Trevor Ariza). Mitchell has been on an absolute scoring tear, and has been lighting it up from three. I expect him to average near 30 points with a few huge games. He has to be effective on offense to give Utah a chance. The Jazz offense cannot afford to sputter and go on long cold stretches or this will be a short series.

Jonathan: We are going to see his play making ability elevated. Making better decisions and winning reads. 

Ken: Mitchell’s shooting dropped from .462/.364 against the Thunder to .360/.250 against the Rockets last year, but I don’t think Houston will have the stoppers they were able to throw at him in the past. None of the starting guards boast a super defensive reputation, and while PJ Tucker has some defensive chops, I feel like Donovan’s quickness would give him a huge advantage there. I’ve seen Austin Rivers and Iman Shumpert mentioned off the bench, but again they don’t have me that concerned. I think Donovan gets a redo against the Rockets and jumps up his production against them. That doesn’t necessarily mean he will beat his 24 ppg average, because he won’t have pumped it up against the Thunder.

Dane: Looking back at Donovan’s incredible playoff performances, his increased aggression in the first round took the Thunder by surprise. By the second round, he became predictable with the drive and spin move. This year, his game is much more dynamic with the mid-range floater, better passing ability and increased three point shooting percentage. His offense as of late as been well within the offensive schemes too. Very good signs for a more unguardable and team-oriented Mitchell.

David: I fully expect Mitchell to continue the elite play he has exhibiting since January. He has been more intent driving to the basket, leading to increased free throws and opening things up for his dialed in 3-point shot. Houston will not have the on-ball defenders on him that they did last year. That will make a major difference for Mitchell and the Jazz.

Who’s a player you think will be sneaky important to the Jazz keeping the series competitive?

Thatcher: On offense, Kyle Korver. On defense, O’Neale. If Korver can stay on the floor without being targeted too much, he could be huge for opening up their offense. If Mitchell has multiple elite shooters to work with, he’ll have room to thrive. On the flipside, Royce needs to be assertive and do enough on offense to warrant his staying on the floor. Too much passiveness will bog down the offense. He could see large stretches of having to guard Harden, and he might be the best equipped to guard Harden one-on-one.

Jonathan: Crowder. That playoff mentality/toughness needs to be contagious and that’s one of the many things he brings to Utah. 

Ken: Since you asked for sneaky, I’m going with a guy who hasn’t been a rotation mainstay for most of the season: Thabo Sefolosha. The Rockets aren’t a tall team, starting 6-foot-6 Tucker at PF and using 6-foot-8 Kenneth Faried at center (although he may find himself outside the playoff rotation). This might limit Favors’ PF minutes, opening up more for Crowder and Sefolosha. If Sefolosha can impact the game positively in those situations, he will give the Jazz a boost that could prove decisive.

Dane: Crowder. The Jazz are going to need him in his finest form and I don’t just mean his basketball abilities. He’s one of the most gritty players in the league and his energy and ability to get under the Rockets skin will be crucial. But he also will need to be on his game! Between he and Korver, three point efficiency will be vital to keep pace with the Rockets firepower. 

David: There were several games over the past three months where it was clear why Dennis Lindsey brokered the trade for Korver. That will be more pronounced in the postseason. The sharpshooter will be instrumental in providing Utah’s spacing. Too many times last year, Houston was able to really back off the Jazz wings. Korver brings a calmness that will be huge. My prediction: there will be at least one game where Korver’s shooting propels Utah to a big win.

Share a bold prediction about something you think will impact the series.

Thatcher: Favors will have at least one massive game this series. While I’m not sure how well the Gobert/Favors duo will work together, but Favors will more than make his mark on the series. His performance will have fans and maybe even the front office clamoring to bring him back next year.

Jonathan: Rubio will have a pair of 30 point games. Jazz win in 6.

Ken: There will be at least one double technical called in game one. That won’t so much impact the series as be a reflection of where it is headed and who is involved. The Jazz and Rockets both have players who can frustrate opponents: Harden, Paul, Gobert and Ingles come to mind. They also have more than their fair share of hard-nosed players who will just go hard, like Nene, Tucker, and Crowder. There will be dustups, and as long as it doesn’t get too ugly, I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Dane: The Jazz win game 1. After losing the first game at home the Rockets are a bit shaken and as a result the series goes longer than most anticipated, stretching all the way to game 7. 

David: Out of necessity, an end-of-the-bench role player will come into a game and make a big impact. Georges Niang and Grayson Allen come to mind. Both guys played very well to finish the season, and while they may not be part of the initial rotations for Snyder (but what do I know?), they may have their number called. I predict one of them will come in, produce and contribute to a victory.