Playoff Race Intensifies, With No Easy Matchups in the West

Will the Jazz and the new-look Rockets reprise their spring rivalry again in the first round? (Bob Levey via ESPN.com)

The NBA trade deadline came and went with the Jazz sitting quietly as it passed, and then two Utah All-Stars made their All-Star debuts. Now all that’s left is a dramatic final stretch, where every win or loss matters just a little more in the fight for playoff positioning.

The Utah Jazz sit at 36-19 after a loss to the Spurs coming out of the All-Star break. That puts them just a game out of third place where the Clippers reside. The Nuggets currently hold the two seed, 1.5 games up on the Jazz, and the Lakers sit atop of the West, 5.5 games above the Jazz.

Behind the Jazz in the standings are the Rockets, who are just a couple games back. The Thunder and Mavericks are tied for the sixth seed. The Grizzlies are five game up on the Blazers for the eighth and final playoff spot in the west. The next twenty five-ish games should be fun to watch.

Most of the NBA analytical systems have the Jazz finishing with the fourth or fifth seed and playing the Rockets in the first round. These teams have a long playoff history and recently met in each of the last two post seasons, with the Rockets winning both series.

This year both teams have gone through a serious makeover. The Jazz rebuilt their roster after missing almost every open three-point shot in last season’s playoff series against the Rockets. They are now the number one shooting team in the league from behind the arc.

The Rockets in the offseason swapped All-Star point guards, exchanging Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook. If that wasn’t enough, they more recently committed to embrace small-ball in as dramatic a fashion as any other team has ever done before. The Rockets don’t have a traditional center on their roster, that will crack their rotation. They still have a couple seven-footers in Tyson Chandler and Isaiah Hartenstein, but if they play, then the opposing team should be in great shape. Instead of having big men on their team, they loaded up on big wings and guards. They added two more this past weekend with the signings of DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Green, both being former Jazzmen. This led the Athletics’ Tony Jones to joking tweet, “Jazz/Rockets first round confirmed.”

The Jazz and Rockets have split the season series so far, each winning on each other’s floor with only one more game to be played in the next couple of days. The Rockets have two of the most dynamic guards in the NBA. Avoiding them and their unique style in the first-round would be a good thing.

If the Jazz can move up to second or third seed, then the matchups get just slightly less difficult. The Mavs have the next great superstar on their team in Luka Doncic. They pair him with former Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis. He is coming off a torn ACL, an injury that even after receiving a clean bill of health, it takes time for the player to feel normal again. By playoff time Porzingis could be back in full force and that duo will give any team all they can handle.

The Thunder are the other team that looked to be locked into the one of the lower seeds. They are led by Paul and surround him with a good mix of veterans and young talent. They will give any team they play a battle. Basically there is no easy out in this year’s western conference. The challengers for the eighth seed include the Grizzlies, who are full of young talent but have a very challenging schedule the rest of the way. Next are the Blazers have one of the most unguardable players in Damian Lillard and the Spurs, who have Gregg Popovich, arguably the best coach of all-time. For the Jazz to get the number one seed, the Lakers would have to collapse and that would be quite the surprise.

The Jazz are competing with the Nuggets, Clippers and the Rockets for seeds 2-5. The Nuggets have the most difficult schedule remaining, followed by the Jazz, Clippers and Rockets. Salt City Hoop’s Dan Clayton breaks all this down in his latest Salt City Seven.

The Clippers, in theory, just strengthened their team by adding Reggie Jackson from the buyout market and trading for Marcus Morris. Many experts feel that the Clippers are the team to beat, but load management to their stars have put them in a race with these teams instead of in a race with the Lakers for tops in the west. The Jazz and Clippers have played three times, with the Jazz coming out on top in two of the three games. In only one of these did the Clippers play with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. These teams meet again in April and with a win the Jazz would own the tie breaker over them.

The Nuggets so far this season have owned the Jazz, winning both contests. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokić, who is one of the best centers in the league and definitely the most versatile one. How the role players around him perform will decide how far they will go. Michael Porter Jr. could be the key to the Nuggets’ hope for a long playoff run. These teams will meet twice in the final 10 days of the season and the outcome of these games will have a huge effect on playoff positioning.

The Lakers are probably too far ahead to catch. The Jazz play the Lakers twice and two losses would definitely help but so far the Jazz are 0-2 against the purple and gold.

The Jazz are finally healthy and most importantly, Mike Conley looks like his old self. The Jazz were able to stay in the race for home court advantage without Conley being healthy or comfortable. If the last few games are a sign of things to come and the Jazz get the Conley they traded for, then they have a great chance to move up in the playoff standings.