Previewing the Utah Jazz’s Decisions in an Abbreviated Off-Season

For the Jazz, a big question in the next two weeks will be whether they can afford to keep reserve scorer Jordan Clarkson. (Stephen Gosling via espn.com)

The NBA and its players agreed to start the 2020-21 season on December 22, which means that basketball news will ramp up over the remaining few weeks. Just in the next few weeks, the NBA will hold its annual college draft (November 18), open free agency (November 20), launch training camps (December 1) and possibly hold an abbreviated preseason.

For the Utah Jazz, that means a lot of decisions loom in the immediate future. Here is a deep dive into the Jazz roster as their season rapidly approaches.

The Jazz nine players on guaranteed contracts for the upcoming season, totaling $114 million in salaries:

1. Mike Conley $34.5 million (assuming he opts in)
2. Rudy Gobert $26.5 million
3. Bojan Bogdanovic $ 17.9 million
4. Joe Ingles $10.9 million
5. Royce O’Neale $8.5 million
6. Donovan Mitchell $5.2 million
7. Ed Davis $5.0 million
8. Tony Bradley $3.5 million
9. Georges Niang $1.8 million¹

The Jazz also own the No. 23 pick. Assuming they keep the pick and sign a player selected there, that would add about $2.3 million to their team salary figure, bringing their cap number to around $116 million with 10 players. That team salary figure exceeds the $109 million salary cap that the league has set for the season, which means the Jazz will act as an over-the-cap team. An over-the-cap team can’t sign another teams’ free agents unless they use exceptions, such as the Mid-Level Exception ($9.3M), the Bi-Annual Exception ($3.6M) or the league minimum (varies between $900K and $2.6M, depending on league tenure). 

Next, the Jazz have four players who are under contract with non-guaranteed salary, meaning the Jazz can keep them at the number below or release them at minimal cost:

10. Miye Oni $1.5 million
11. Nigel Williams-Goss $1.5 million
12. Rayjon Tucker $1.5 million²
13. Juwan Morgan $1.5 million

Lastly, the Jazz will have to make decisions regarding their four free agents. Two of them are restricted free agents coming off of two-way contracts, while the others will be unrestricted free agents:

13. Jarrell Brantley- Restricted
14. Justin Wright-Foreman- Restricted
15. Jordan Clarkson- Unrestricted (Bird rights)
16. Emmanuel Mudiay- Unrestricted (Non-Bird rights)

The Jazz hold Clarkson’s Bird rights, which gives them the option to exceed the cap to re-sign him to any number up to the max salary. Conversely, they don’t hold Bird rights for Mudiay, so they most they could sign him for is a contract starting at 120% of his minimum salary figure, unless they use one of the salary cap exceptions to re-sign him. The other two (Brantley and Wright-Foreman) will be restricted free agents as long as the Jazz present them with the qualifying offer of a standard two-way contract. If they do, the Jazz can match another team’s offer to retain them.

As of now the Jazz have 10 players under guaranteed contracts³ for next season, including their draft pick, giving them five more contracts to hand out and 2 two-way spots. But Tony Jones of The Athletic made it sound like some of those roster spots are spoken for. “The Jazz are for sure hopeful for two rookies who will be second-year players: Juwan Morgan and Miye Oni,” Jones wrote last week. He also added that the Jazz “really like” the popular Brantley as well as Tucker. Let’s assume the Jazz bring all four back; this only leaves room for three more additions to the roster. The Jazz have made no secret that they would also like to bring back Clarkson, but market value in a free agency class without a lot of high-end shooting guard options could make that challenging. If they re-sign, they’re down to just two roster spots left to fill.

After the Jazz ended their season in August, Dennis Lindsey made it clear what type of player the Jazz would be targeting in free agency. “Anybody who has defensive integrity at their position, can be an active, athletic defender, will be someone that would be of interest to us,” he explained, “especially if they don’t compromise the spacing.”  Since their main tool to add such a player would be the Mid-Level Exception, they may use it on a big wing who could bring back some of that defensive integrity, or to help shore up the big man rotation behind All-NBA center Gobert.

Here are a few names to keep an eye on that would probably fit into one of the exceptions: Derrick Jones Jr., Dario Saric, Juancho Hernangomez, Jae Crowder, Josh Jackson, Kent Bazemore, Moe Harkless, Harry Giles, Serge Ibaka, Wesley Iwundu and Sterling Brown.

Alternatively, the Jazz could make a trade to help improve the team, though their assets are limited. The most likely player to be traded is Davis, who fell from the rotation last year and doesn’t seem to fit in Utah’s plans. If the Jazz could find a new home for their backup center, it would free up $5 million in cap space and help them avoid the luxury tax. The open roster spot would be another added bonus.

The other trade candidate is Conley, who carries an expiring $34 million contract. The Jazz could swap him for another big contract or trade him for a couple players to help strengthen their depth behind the starters. An example of this would be sending Conley and Davis to Orlando for Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, giving Orlando a high-level point guard they have been sorely missing — though it’s unclear if the Jazz are actively exploring Conley trades.

Rumors of a Derrick Favors reunion surfaced over the past few months, a popular idea among Jazz fans. Once again, how the Jazz fit him into the cap is the question. Davis would certainly need to be traded and maybe even Bradley. They could use the MLE,  but that means they only have the bi-annual or a trade to help improve their defensive integrity elsewhere. The Jazz would jump at the chance to sign Favors to the Bi-Annual Exception, but unless the market dries up on him, that appears unlikely. 

If the Jazz’s cap situation stays the same, meaning they don’t trade away any salaries and pick up the team option on the four young players, their total salaries before signing other players is $122 million. The luxury tax threshold will be set just above $132 million. If the Jazz re-sign Clarkson and use the MLE without offloading salary, it will be tough to dodge the luxury tax. New Jazz majority owner Ryan Smith may be more willing to pay the tax than his predecessors were, but the question of whether to venture into the tax should come down to whether this team has a chance for a deep playoff run.

The Jazz front office and new owner have plenty to do and not a lot of time to do it in. The next month or so should be an exciting time to see how the Jazz build this season’s team.