Projecting Gobert’s Production Into His New Deal

Players like Gobert have historically enjoyed a lot of success at ages 29 through 33, which will be Gobert’s age range during his contract extension term. (Jesse D. Garrabrant via espn.com)

All-Star center Rudy Gobert is 28 years old. He will be 33 in the final year of the contract extension he just signed to remain with the Utah Jazz. As various pundits have reacted to Utah’s decision to extend him for a reported $205 million, his age and purported decline have been an issue of concern for some. It’s one thing to give the third largest contract in NBA history to a player who can’t shoot — it’s another to give it to someone whose play might fall off a cliff. We’ve seen players suddenly hit the age wall in their 30s, and it can be ugly.

Fortunately for Gobert and the Jazz, a lot of comparative data shows that Gobert has a chance to remain extremely impactful throughout the 5-year term of his next deal.

Let’s start with FiveThirtyEight’s new player projection for Gobert. The prominent stats site uses player stats and on/off numbers to approximate a player’s impact on winning, and then project how that impact might hcnage over coming seasons. Here is their best guess on what Gobert’s value will look like over the next several years of his career.

FiveThirtyEight’s projection for Gobert’s future performance.

A projected drop from 10.9 to 6.0 wins above replacement may feel significant, but 6.0 wins in his age 33 year is still really good — it’s about where Joel Embiid, Devin Booker, and teammate Donovan Mitchell were last year. 538 is stingy with its All-Star category, and Gobert is one of the few that earned it. Based on his expected production, 538 assigned Gobert a projected 5-year market value of $197.5 million, just below the $205 million he received. Basically, 538 thinks Rudy is going to remain a star player.

It’s true that most NBA players tend to fall off in their 30s, if they’re lucky enough to make it that far. But stars tend to remain effective much longer. Players like LeBron James, Chris Paul, and Kyle Lowry defy aging.

While we often think of a player’s “prime” as the late 20s, the truth is that many stars’ primes start at or continue in their early 30s. Among the players who received votes on MVP ballots last season, James, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Paul, Damian Lillard and Jimmy Butler are all in the 29–33 age range. Superstars Kevin Durant and Steph Curry (both 32) didn’t garner MVP votes last season because of long-term injuries, but both are considered top-10 players. That’s eight of the game’s very best, still having an elite impact at age 29-33, Gobert’s age during his extension term.

To be fair, Gobert is a player of a different mold from those eight. Let’s compare him instead to eltie defensive bigs from the modern era: in particular, centers who have won Defensive Player of the Year. Conventional wisdom might suggest that 7-footers age out early, but among these star centers the opposite has historically been true.

How long did elite defensive bigs last?

Interestingly, just over half of the DPOY awards handed to centers have come at age 29 or older. On average, modern DPOY-winning big men don’t retire until almost 38. If Rudy follows this trend he’ll have a long career and a good shot at more trophies.

But is Gobert in line for a statistical decline? Let’s look at that same list of defensive giants and see how they did in their age 29–33 seasons. Measuring defense by statistics is tricky. Many of the modern defensive metrics didn’t exist during these players’ careers. In order to track how these players did in the 29-33 age window compared to their career averages, I’ve compiled blocks per game and defensive block plus minus (per basketball-reference.com).

How have defensive bigs aged?

What you’ll find is that stats in the five year range of age 29–33 basically match these players’ career averages. Joakim Noah, Dwight Howard, David Robinson and Alonzo Mourning all had significant injuries during those years. Remove those banged-up years from their 29-33 sample, and those years are actually higher than career averages. Scanning other metrics like minutes per game, points per game, and defensive win shares yield similar results. Only injuries caused a big drop-off in numbers for these elite defensive bigs.

If you look at the worst contracts in the league, injuries are the culprit more often than age. If John Wall, Blake Griffin, and Kevin Love had remained healthy their deals wouldn’t look so bad.

Jazz fans can rest assured that unless Gobert gets hurt he projects to remain a highly effective player throughout his contract extension. But has he hit his ceiling? More good news: among the compared players, you could argue that Marc Gasol, Marcus Camby, Dikembe Mutombo, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Tyson Chandler had their best seasons in their age 29–33 years. Ben Wallace, Robinson, Mark Eaton, and Kevin Garnett had reached their apex right before, but continued their prime into their early 30s.

Rudy has made it clear that a championship is his main goal. Of the 13 other DPOY centers, Wallace, Olajuwon, Robinson, Garnett, and Chandler won the title during the age 29–33 range. Gasol and Howard won at age 34.

Fans tend to be afraid of players in their fourth decade, but the fact is that most championship teams are full of them. If his defensive peers are any indication, Gobert’s extension years represent a window of contention much more than a period of depressing decline.