Projecting Utah’s Second Half Record

January 9th, 2019 | by John Keeffer

The Jazz have a downhill ride coming in games 42 through 82 (Melissa Majchrzak via utahjazz.com)

After a week-long road trip that ended in a difficult loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Utah Jazz have officially made it through the first half of the season. While the 20-21 record may not be what many people expected, it may have been the best case scenario given the incredibly difficult first half schedule they had to trudge through to get to game number 42.

It has been well-documented that the Jazz have gone through the hardest schedule in the NBA. Over the course of the first 41 games, they played a league-leading 25 games on the road. From November 9 through December 4, they played 14 consecutive games in a different arena.

Per teamrankings.com, the Utah Jazz have had a strength of schedule (SOS) of 2.0. The second place team in the league is the Houston Rockets at a 1.1. That means that the Jazz have had a schedule that has literally been twice as hard as any team in the league. Over the second half of the season, their SOS will be a -1.0, which will be the second easiest in the league.

Many experts selected the Jazz to be one of the top teams in the west. A few even projected them to finish as high as the No. 2 seed behind the Warriors. Given the high expectations, it makes sense that people would be disappointed in a 20-21 record at the midway point. But an analysis of their record should put that 20-21 in a different light. 

Last year, the Jazz achieved a 31-10 record in their final 41 games. They should be able to make a similar charge this season.

To predict how the Jazz will perform of the second half of the season, I went through the remaining opponents and bucketed them into categories by rough odds of winning. The “near 100%” category are teams the Jazz should beat every time out, followed by teams against whom they should win most of the time (we’ll call this group 75%), teams who are in a similar tier (50%) and elite teams against whom wins are harder to come by (25%).

  • Near 100%: Chicago, Cleveland, Atlanta, New York, Phoenix
  • 75%: Orlando, Detroit, Dallas, New Orleans, Brooklyn, Washington, Charlotte
  • 50%: LA Lakers, LA Clippers, Minnesota, Portland, San Antonio, Memphis, Sacramento
  • 25%: Denver, Houston, Golden State, Milwaukee, OKC

From there, I factored in whether the game was home or away, if either team will be on a back-to-back and how any previous matchups have gone. Here are teh resulting projections.

When it is all said and done, I have the Jazz finishing with a 29-12 record over the second half of the season, which would have them ending with an impressive 49-33 record on the season. That is definitely a high bar for any team to achieve, but many factors point to the Jazz being able to accomplish this.

The primary reason is a home-heavy schedule. I mentioned earlier that they have played 25 games on the road, verses 16 games at home. Going forward, it will be the exact inverse, with them playing 25 games in the confines of the Vivint SmartHome Arena.

The Jazz’s record is not too different at home versus on the road (8-8 in Salt Lake City, 12-13 elsewhere), but they have been a much better offensive team in Utah. On average, they make five more threes per game, and shoot four percent better from distance. Their overall offensive rating jumps from 104.7 on the road to 111.2 at home. As a reference, an offensive rating off 111.2 overall would have the Jazz slated as the ninth best offense in the league.

If the Jazz can maintain their offensive efficiency at home, while pairing that with their already dominant defense, the wins should start piling up.

There are going to be a few stretches that are crucial to the team’s success. They are actually entering into that first stretch now. Starting Wednesday, Utah will play eight of the next nine games at home. During that time, they will face Orlando, the Lakers (potentially without LeBron James), Chicago and Cleveland. The lone road game will be a tough matchup against the Clippers, and then the most difficult game at home will be against the current leader in the west, the Denver Nuggets.

Due to injuries, it sounds like Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Thabo Sefolosha will be out at least 1-2 weeks. The timing coincides with a home heavy stretch with beatable opponents, so they may have a chance to get through these injuries while pulling their record above .500.

The next stretch to watch is from March 13 through April 5. This is where the Jazz will have a chance to make up some serious ground, and could even secure a spot in the playoffs. They will be facing multiple teams with records below .500, and that close to the end of the season, it’s possible that some of those teams will have little incentive to win.

This stretch also features the longest road trip of the second half of the season, but even that is looking like a cakewalk compared to what the Jazz have gone through. They will play Washington, New York, Atlanta, and Chicago, all projected lottery teams as of right now. There’s a good chance that they go 4-0 on the road here, and if everything pans out, I have them winning 13 games in a row as they near the end of the season.

That could be a tad optimistic, but the most difficult game in that stretch is a home game against the Lakers. James hasn’t won a game in Salt Lake City since 2011.

For those Jazz fans who have suffered through a stressful up-and-down start to the season, your patience is about to be rewarded. The Jazz made it through the most difficult first half to a season in recent memory, and while it wasn’t perfect, they didn’t drown. The second half of the season is going to be much kinder. Barring more health challenges, a win total in the high 40s and a third consecutive playoff berth are still quite possible. I predict a 29-12 finish, which would have them ending at 49-33.

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