Pros and Cons for Drafting Gordon, Randle, Smart, and Vonleh

(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

So the last 365 days gained the Jazz no playoffs, no 26th win, no compensation for the loss of Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap, no coach of the future, no emergent star from the young core, and no top three pick.

Yup.

Well, life goes on, hangovers are blessedly of limited duration, and once Jazz fans pass through all five stages of grief¹ they should realize that there will be a number of exciting prospects available when pick five rolls around on June 26th.

The problem is who to select.  And its a doozy.

Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker, the two most likely dominant scorers in the draft, are beyond reach now.  Joel Embiid, the new Olajuwon in the minds of many, as well.  Orlando will almost certainly pick Dante Exum to pair with Victor Oladipo in a hybrid guard duo from Hell.

That’s all the christened “franchise” prospects off the board when Commissioner Silver calls Utah’s name.  They will be left with the first pick of the also-rans.  Make no mistake, there will be multiple potential All-Stars left for the taking – but deciding between them will be incredibly difficult as players five through eight are distinguished more by simple differences than superiority or inferiority.  Who will be the best guy, the best fit, the right pick from several possibilities who all look about equally valid?

It’s an important argument that will take place thousands of times before the draft, including among the Jazz think tank.  But as I’m more than opinionated enough for two people, I’ll take both sides for now.  What follows are my arguments both for and against the four players I believe will be under consideration when the Jazz select fifth in the draft.   What follows is, honestly, the best argument I can make for and against each player.

Aaron Gordon

Draft him because…

Gordon will help the Jazz compete to win in every quarter of every game of every year he steps onto the court.  He’s a defense oriented, team-first, coach’s dream in the body of an athletic freak.  There is no better cultural addition the Jazz could add in this draft.  He will be immensely popular with players, coaches, and fans from day one given his worth ethic, energy and dedication, and perfect willingness to do whatever he’s asked.  Gordon will do little to compete for shots and offensive usage with Trey Burke, Derrick Favors, and possibly Gordon Hayward or Alec Burks, and so will help rather than hinder the offensive development of his teammates.  Defensively, he will provide extreme flexibility.  With his combination of size and agility, he can reasonably be asked to guard any of four positions on a given night, making it much easier to cover for weak defenders in a scheme.  Finally, if he is able to reconstruct his shot², the Jazz might have a player on their hands who combines the defense and energy of Dennis Rodman with the offensive game of Blake Griffin.

Don’t because…

Gordon’s shot isn’t just “an issue.”  His shooting is so bad, both mechanically and psychologically, that he will be the vulnerable link that snaps the whole chain of the offense.  Think Greg Ostertag’s value in spreading the floor.  Also, it will be nearly impossible to play him down the stretch of close games as opponents will foul him intentionally.  As good a defender as Gordon is, he will be overpowered frequently by bigger players, which is a real issue because he is a power forward.  No amount of wishing him into the small forward position, either on his part or the part of Jazz fans or coaches, will make it happen.  He’s a power forward without enough power, a stretch big without the ability to stretch the floor.  Deprived of the chance to draft a franchise savior, would the Jazz really settle for a player who may well become a glamorized glue guy?

Julius Randle

Draft him because…

Randle is the only rookie who may threaten Jabari Parker’s claim to Rookie of the Year honors.  In a Jazz jersey, he will provide essentially all the positives of Enes Kanter (skilled interior scoring, a promising jump shot, and rebounding) without the leaden feet or poor defensive awareness.  While Randle will never be a rim protector, he has the combination of strength and agility to be a good positional defender, which will pair perfectly with Derrick Favors patrolling the paint.  He will be the true number one offensive option the Jazz need by taking advantage of his speed and skill in facing up larger defenders while bullying smaller, weaker players in the post.  And he is an exceptional passer for his position.  In fact, the sum total of his game will be reminiscent of how Karl Malone anchored the Jazz for the better part of two decades.  That seemed to work pretty well.

Don’t because…

Randle won’t really give the Jazz any of the things they really, desperately need.  Instead, he’ll just trap them in the confusing limbo of always being “in-between.”  Paring Randle and Favors will commit the team to a two-big system, but Randle is neither big enough to be a dominant defender nor a rangy enough shooter to stretch the floor to the three point line.  Say adios to optimal spacing and elite defense.  While concerns over his short arms proved exaggerated³, he is neither particularly long nor explosive, and both will rise up to bite him against the power forwards bigger or more athletic than he is.⁴  He’ll be a fine first option against most of the league then find himself outmatched against contenders in the playoffs.  Finally, his physique is prone to easily gaining weight, which brings additional injury risk and limited fitness and stamina.  Do the Jazz really want to pick a player who traps them in a grayish area stylistically, positionally, and in availability to play major minutes without injury?

Marcus Smart

Draft him because…

Smart will single-handedly change the Jazz’s style of play both offensively and defensively.  His intensity and ability to apply ball pressure will catalyze an attacking defensive mentality, drawing the best out of other defenders on the team, in particular by energizing Derrick Favors.  Simultaneously, his ability to get steals and rebounds will generate open court opportunities and a faster pace of play on the offensive end.  The Jazz will instantly become must watch basketball from a sheer entertainment perspective.  Smart has the reach and strength to play either guard position, and will pair well with the long distance shooter Trey Burke in a deft-handling, crisp-passing backcourt tandem.  He will both inject energy into and demand it from his teammates, bringing an ultra-competitive mindset to the Jazz, similar to Joakim Noah’s effect on the Bulls.  Finally, as one of the strongest point guards in the history of the NBA⁵, he will allow the Jazz to take advantage of one of the rarest avenues of attack in basketball: posting up the point guard.

Don’t because…

Smart’s inability to shoot will compact the floor, putting pressure on every other position to hit jumpers – which is exactly what this Jazz roster struggles to do.  While his game might mesh decently with Trey Burke’s, their personalities will not.  Each has an alpha mentality that includes leading vocally, and so playing the two together would require deft management by coaches to avoid discord and a struggle for power.  A hard task for a brand new coach.  Yet parting ways with Burke, as might be necessary in drafting Smart, will be a difficult choice, especially to make way for a player with limited experience playing point guard and who has shown, more often than not, proclivity to take it to the hole himself rather than get teammates involved.  Finally, it is hard to see how Alec Burks’ value will not be significantly hampered by drafting a player with similar strengths but also similar weaknesses.  And did I mention that the guy just can’t shoot?

Noah Vonleh

Draft him because…

Of the three elite power forward prospects, Vonleh has the clearest path to the highest upside.  Trapped on a poor Indiana team with painful guard play, he is already a better player than he was able to show in college – and he showed plenty, even there.  He is well on his way to becoming a legitimate three point threat.  Once he is, he will give the Jazz essentially a twin of Derrick Favors who can stretch the floor.  Imagine two 6’10” athletic aberrations with 7’4″ wingspans clogging the paint on one end while serving as an inside/outside scoring threat on the other.  Yeah, the rest of the league is already shaking in their sneakers.  More, Vonleh is renowned for his great practice ethic and love for the game, traits that make him a fine inheritor of the blue-collar Jazz legacy.  It isn’t adding LeBron James or Dwyane Wade, but landing an 18-year-old Chris Bosh ain’t too shabby.

Don’t because…

Has nobody realized Vonleh lacks any truly established NBA skill at present beyond rebounding?  Drafting him would put extreme pressure on the Jazz coaching staff to develop his game quickly and thoroughly, and he will require a lot of development.  The Jazz have spent three seasons now torturing fans by rationing playing time for young prospects.  How will they play a young man who simply cannot provide major contributions on the floor for at least a year or two, possibly even more.  Worse, drafting Vonleh will almost certainly force the Jazz to trade Enes Kanter well before his young replacement eclipses Big Turk’s ability as a player.  If he fails to develop as fully as hoped, a real possibility given how raw he is currently, he may leave the Jazz in the position of watching Vonleh peak well below his anticipated ceiling just as they see Kanter exceed expectations on another team.

And So?

That’s the quandary.  Pop quiz, hot shot: What do you do?  What will the Jazz do?

I don’t know.  I suspect Jazz management has, at this point, no real idea either.

How about you?  If the Jazz have the choice of these four players when the time comes for them to submit their selection in the draft, who do you suggest they let it all ride on?