All eyes are on Mitchell, but where might Conley and Bogdanovic land? (Melissa Majchrzak via espn.com)
In one month, the Utah Jazz will convene in the Zions Bank Basketball Campus and training camp will begin, kicking off a season that will undeniably look different than the last several. With two starters, a key reserve and a head coach already gone since this time last year, it may seem like all the changes have been made. They have not. We have officially reached the offseason equivalent of crunch time, and the outcome is very much in doubt.
I asked Jazz fans for questions about how the club might close out the offseason, and they delivered. Read on to learn what fans are asking, not to mention how I answered.
OFFSEASON STRATEGY
Do you think it was ever the intent to build around Donovan Mitchell, or did they want to tank from the beginning? @jjcottle
I think the rebuild was always a possibility, but I also think the team initially made efforts to improve the team. The first two-plus months of the offseason were spent combing the league for deals to add a high-level player to a Mitchell-Rudy Gobert combo, only to come up empty with no financial flexibility, very little draft capital, and limited player assets.
Once Gobert was traded, they’ve similarly looked for deals that bring in a player to play at Mitchell’s side, all while keeping an eye on the rebuilding route. The Jazz weren’t going to land Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving, and whatever attempts they did make didn’t bear fruit, so they’re left with a choice: trade Mitchell now or carry him into the season as the team’s only star.
Would you rather trade Mitchell, then trade for Russ Westbrook and tank, and hope to be OKC with a million picks, or try and add a piece this year? @toddkrogh
I’m a fan, and I think most fans would like to continue to follow a winning team so in a vacuum, I’d rather add a piece that enables the Jazz to do that. That said, I’m not sure that was possible, and even if it was, I think that ship has sailed at this point.
While I think the organization would pivot in an instant if an attainable star became available, that’s probably not happening in late August.
If the Jazz keep Mitchell, could the Gobert trade picks be used to retool around him and how would that look? Something like a first rounder for Jakob Poeltl, two to three first rounders for next star wing that becomes available and go from there is plausible, no? @monkahai
This question is closely related to the last one. This is exactly what the Jazz brass is weighing. They’re trying to assess multiple versions of a future timeline, then make the decisions today that will take them to the best version of the future.
Anyone have any spare infinity stones the Jazz FO can borrow?
If Donovan is staying and the Jazz can really get Poeltl for a first-round pick (probably not one that the team deems most valuable), they might make that move… IF they thought there was a reasonable chance of getting the next star wing and IF they thought that would happen in time to make an impact on Mitchell’s decision in 2025.
On the other hand, if they already know that a Poeltl type upgrade isn’t available for a reasonable price and/or don’t foresee a star wing being available to a team in Utah in the next two years, they probably pursue another timeline.
DEALING DONOVAN
What do you think is the minimum trade package Danny Ainge would accept from the Knicks? @tombagjr
I’m going to start with a tangent. On August 6, I sent the following message to Dan Clayton:
Every tweet & article written about the Jazz these days talks about what Ainge thinks, says, wants, or will do. I wonder if Zanik, who I imagine does most of the heavy lifting as far contacting other teams & negotiating, will get tired of every Jazz story being about what *Ainge* did, does, or will do.
Dan didn’t reply to that specifically, but yesterday, he mentioned the same topic parenthetically while discussing the Jazz-Lakers trade.
Justin Zanik is the General Manager for the Utah Jazz, and I assume he is generally managing things.
We know that Ainge, as CEO of Basketball Operations and Alternate Governor, wanted to be more removed from the day-to-day operations, and I think that applies to trade negotiations until they reach a very serious level. I’m sure any deal involving Mitchell – and honestly probably any deal – starts with Ainge’s and Ryan Smith’s parameters and ends with their stamp of approval, but Zanik is the one in the trenches.
That’s why since about August 6, I’ve tried to refer to “the Jazz,” “the team,” or something a little more generic, rather than assuming that Danny Ainge is solely responsible for every call, inquiry or move Utah makes.
End tangent.
For some time I’ve been under the impression that this deal, if it happens, would land the Jazz approximately five first round draft picks: three unprotected and two protected. That’s primarily based on my review of recent star trades, and further supported by similar work tweeted by Dan and @RGiss11. Sample size for recent star trades is small, however, and every deal is its own negotiation.
Add the fact that within a category, there are varying values of picks. Not all of New York’s unprotected picks hold the same value, and two people might disagree on their relative values. It’s possible that the Jazz (i.e., not “Ainge”) would accept some configurations involving three unprotected and two protected picks, but not others.
As for players, I think the club would like two young players, and my assumption is that Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin are the top two priorities because of their development trajectory and multiple years of contract control. While those two players might be part of Utah’s minimum trade package, I do think they’d consider only one of the players, at least as long as there was sufficient draft compensation.
Do you think that the acquisition of THT makes it less likely that Grimes is included in any potential Don/Knicks deal? @solelyme06
Not at all. When rebuilding – or any other time – teams should always seek the best value available in any circumstance. If the Jazz see Grimes as the most valuable future piece they can extract from the Knicks’ current roster, they should pursue him. This applies even if the team already had an exact Grimes clone on the roster, and I don’t think Talen Horton-Tucker is quite that. In the future, maybe that value is realized on the court in a Jazz uniform, or maybe it’s realized in a trade, but the rule of rebuilding is the same: stack marketable assets.
While we’re on the subject of Horton-Tucker, I noticed something interesting about that trade.
Based on eyeballing the math, I assumed the trade could have worked without Johnson, so I surmised that the Jazz actually really wanted him and insisted that he be included. Turns out when I used a computer instead of my eyeballs to do the math, Horton-Tucker’s salary was $60,000 too low to match with Beverley, so another player had to be included in the swap.
Options included Johnson, Wenyen Gabriel (if the Lakers guaranteed at least $60,000 of salary prior to the trade), Austin Reaves (ditto), or rookie Max Christie. That doesn’t mean the Jazz didn’t want Johnson – he does help fill a need, after all – but a small amount of additional salary was required for the deal to go through.
I see Cavs are inquiring about DM and they may be an interesting option. What package do you think they could offer? @hallsrh
Since this question was submitted, SNY’s Ian Begley reported that Cleveland has withdrawn from trade talks, but let’s look at the possibility anyway.
As far as draft capital, the Cavs could send unprotected 2025, 2027 and 2029 first round picks, and could trade the Jazz a chance at their 2023 first rounder, should it fall in the lottery (the pick will belong to Indiana if it lands outside the lottery). In addition, they could offer pick swaps in any of the even years.
To acquire Mitchell, the Cavaliers would need to send out $24.2 million in salary, plus enough draft picks to make the Jazz happy. Some early speculation assumed a package would revolve around Collin Sexton (via sign-and-trade) and Isaac Okoro, but on Thursday one source claimed the Jazz lacked interest in those players. If that’s the case, the Cavs have several other options that could work, possibly including forward Cedi Osman, in whom the Jazz supposedly have interest.
Is there a team we aren’t talking about that could make a competitive offer for Donovan? @BIZBL1212
According to Spence Checketts, yes. He reported on Monday that a mystery team is lurking in the shadows, but was unable to identify which team that might be.
Let’s do a little sleuthing.
New York, Miami, Charlotte, Sacramento and Washington have been reported or rumored on some level, so none of them really qualifies as a mystery team.
Cleveland has been reported, and in fact could be the mystery team, given that Begley’s reports of Cleveland and Utah “touching base” surfaced one day after Checketts’ comments.
If it’s not any of those six teams, who else has the draft capital to get into the mix?
If the mystery team isn’t Cleveland, I’d lean toward New Orleans, Orlando or Toronto, with Phoenix as a dark horse.
OTHER TRADE QUESTIONS
Are there any benefits to a 3-team trade involving the Lakers, or does it make more sense for the Jazz to do separate deals with NY and LA? @tombagjr
The Jazz already made one trade with the Lakers after this question was submitted, but I assume this is referring to the rumored Westbrook acquisition.
There would be potential benefit if any of the incoming former Knicks were of interest to the Lakers. For example, Evan Fournier is likely to be included in any Jazz-Knicks swap, but if the Lakers would be open to getting him in return for Westbrook, the teams would need to work a three-team deal, or else wait for two months after any Jazz-Knicks trade. That’s because trading Fournier and others for Westbrook would require salary aggregation, and Fournier’s salary can’t be aggregated for two months after being traded.
Likewise, Cam Reddish is a player the Lakers have coveted for some time. If New York sent him to the Lakers in a three-way trade, maybe that helps open up options (i.e., more picks and/or lighter protections) on any assets the Lakers would send the Jazz. As in the example above, if the Knicks trade Reddish to the Jazz first, the Jazz wouldn’t be able to aggregate his salary to acquire Westbrook for two months. However, they might not need to aggregate to match Westbrook’s salary anyway, depending on which players are included in the deal.
How realistic is a trade where the Jazz receive Westbrook plus one or both of LA’s available picks (and/or a swap)? Or is that more just a pipe dream of Jazz fans because those LA picks are too much to pay for unloading Westbrook in exchange for Jazz vets. @tombagjr
I don’t think it’s a pipe dream at all, particularly now that the Lakers added Patrick Beverley. Things weren’t great with Westbrook last year, and now they’ve added a someone with a strong mutual dislike at least. It’s like they already had a powder keg, and they just made a deal for a detonator.
There are few teams that would consider taking Westbrook’s contract, with Utah and Indiana being the two most rumored. Indiana has reportedly offered Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, while the Jazz may have discussed various combinations including Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley and (until a few days ago) Beverley. I’ve seen chatter that Turner-Hield are considered a better offer, although I’m not entirely sure why. If the Lakers indeed prefer that option, and finally reach a point where they’re willing to send both unprotected picks, the Jazz could make a last ditch effort by undercutting the price, asking for just one unprotected pick and other assets, such as a swap, second-round picks, or agreeing to protections on one of the two first rounders.
At the end of the day, the Jazz probably already know what the market value of each player is. The question will be whether the sum of the individual trades is less than or greater than any return they could get in one shot from the Lakers.
Side note: if I were the Lakers, I would seriously consider just keeping Westbrook. It’s painful, but it’s just one year. LeBron James and Anthony Davis probably feel differently, and again, the Lakers just added Beverley to the mix.
Besides Donny, who still needs to be moved in your mind? @2022_ute_jazz
Particularly if (when?) Mitchell is moved, the Jazz will likely try to move any older players. In my mind there’s a soft line around 30 years old. That currently means Conley, Bogdanovic, Clarkson and Rudy Gay, but could include other players that join the team in subsequent trades.
Younger players, particularly Beasley, could also be moved if there’s a good offer, and literally anyone could be moved if needed for salary matching purposes.
There’s a lot of assumptions of Mike being traded, but to me, JC & Bogey seem much more likely to be moved, with Mike staying. Get an asset for Bogey & JC before they leave/opt out. With the return for PatBev, what’s your guess on their worth (trade-wise) for both of them? @KurtFlinders
In trading other vets on the roster, is interest high enough to get a first? @Bro_Tyson
Other than Don and Bogey, do you think any other player we have is worth a first round pick? @dapostmanjo
Replying to the last of those three questions in a word… no.
Let’s go through the possibilities one at a time:
I mostly agree with @dapostmanjo’s assessment that the Jazz could get a first-round pick for Bojan. That said, I wouldn’t expect an unprotected pick for a 33-year-old with one year remaining on his contract, unless it’s from a team that feels so good about its chances that they’re relatively sure it will be a late pick.
Conley has gotten quite a bad rap this offseason, based on a poor postseason performance (he wasn’t alone). However, in the last month of the regular season, he averaged 15.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.3 steals per game on 49.4% shooting, including 45.6% from three-point range. Unfortunately, his contract requires the Jazz to take back $18 million in salary, and there aren’t many teams with $18 million of good salary who also want to give up an asset. If Conley isn’t included in a Westbrook deal, I think he’ll start the season in Utah.
The lack of reported interest in Clarkson surprises me. I’m well aware of the 2021 Sixth Man of the Year’s warts, but they come with a boatload of bench scoring. Clarkson looked like the team’s best player for much of the playoffs, yet no significant market has developed.
How many picks do you think we accrue this off-season? @dapostmanjo
If Donovan is traded, he nets four or five (any swaps not included because they don’t add incremental picks).
Bogdanovic could net one.
A group of players (ideally not including Bogdanovic) could get two from the Lakers.
So adding that all together gives you a low end of six and a high end of eight, in addition to the five they already acquired in the Gobert and Royce O’Neale deals. Of course the real low end is zero, if Jazz brass don’t close any of these deals and enter the season with Mitchell and the rest of the gang mostly intact.
Can THT be flipped in a Don trade? @lairddoman
Yes, subject to limitations. He can be traded by himself and even can be sent in the same trade with other Jazz players or assets, but his salary can’t be aggregated for two months from the date of Thursday’s trade, until October 25. The good news is that no variation of a Mitchell trade require aggregation, because the Jazz would likely be sending the largest salary in deal.
A second Lakers deal for Westbrook couldn’t involve Horton-Tucker since the Lakers are barred from re-acquiring him.
If Don stays, do you see other moves to balance the roster and maybe move some of our plethora of guards for front court help? @gubihero
So with a full roster already, if they don’t trade Don how can they round out the roster? We need another center and more wings. @khart1968
Which guards will be here to start the season? What are some realistic targets to fill out the frontcourt? @arbut15
These questions are similar and fairly simple to answer. If Mitchell stays, the Jazz will likely add a veteran free agent center, and personally I’d look to add one even if Mitchell is traded.
I ran a series of polls on Twitter to ascertain which of twelve centers Jazz fans liked out of the available options, and the first-round of results didn’t come back nearly how I expected. I’ll admit, the pickings are slim, but I was still surprised to see last season’s backup Hassan Whiteside, 37-year-old LaMarcus Aldridge, and controversial Twitch streamer Meyers Leonard making the final round of the poll, along with Montrezl Harrell. I expected Cody Zeller to make the top four and make it into the final round because I think he’d a very good fit for this type of role.
When results for the final round were tallied, Whiteside narrowly edged out Harrell in the unofficial fans’ choice poll. That’s funny, because I don’t think he’s the right kind of presence around a young, rebuilding team, and he didn’t seem eager to return when the season ended in April.
As far as wings, I’m not that concerned. The addition of Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson bolstered a small group with two more guys who can play on the wing, and the Jazz likely still have a couple of moves that could add a body to the rotation.
Does the Beverley trade hint at another trade coming with the Lakers or hint away from another trade with the Lakers? @thelyonsking
It may signal that the Jazz didn’t think the Lakers were ever giving up both picks, so they went ahead and made the smaller deal. If they thought there was a chance, it seems they would have held on to Beverley, because clearly the Lakers had interest, and he could have been part of that package.
That said, the Jazz still have plenty of players available to trade, as well as anyone who could be acquired in potential three-team deals, so that deal could be revisited at any time until Westbrook lands somewhere else.
I’ve read a lot about players being traded to the Lakers, but know there are lots of other places for our vets to go. Where do you think players like Conley, Bogey, Gay, and even Clarkson might end up? @MyJazzMania
These types of questions are tough, because there are so many possibilities. These two teams stand out to me, but this list is nowhere near comprehensive.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see some kind of deal with Toronto. As I mentioned earlier, the Raptors have been quiet this summer, but we think they spoke to the Jazz about Gobert, they may have spoken about Mitchell and the Jazz have had reported interest in some Raptors players. When teams are in contact that much, it’s always possible that a side deal is the result. In particular, this would be a good landing place for Bogdanovic if no Lakers deal materializes or if he’s not included.
Utah has also spoken with Cleveland about Mitchell, were monitoring the situation with Collin Sexton, and supposedly have interest in Cedi Osman. Before they signed former Jazz point guards Ricky Rubio and Raul Neto, the Cavs also had interest in Conley. It seems like there’s some mutual interest in players there.
Thanks to everybody for the questions. We’ll do this again before the season if there’s stuff to talk about, and there might be. I have a feeling this entire season may be more transaction heavy than we’re used to seeing.
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