Q&A: The Trade Deadline Nears

Is it time to move on from Bogdanovic? Only if it improves the Jazz, Ken Clayton answers. (David Sherman via espn.com)

Earlier this month, we started a reader Q&A around upcoming transaction periods. In that batch of questions, we wound up diving deep on Utah’s need to add a 14th regular roster player, a spot that wound up going to veteran forward Ersan Ilyasova. Now, it’s time to tackle questions about the next two windows the Jazz have to consider roster upgrades: Thursday’s NBA trade deadline, and a fluid buyout market that’s already underway with some bargaining signings around the league. 

Before I start with the questions, I’ll tip my hand as to the direction I think the Jazz are heading. I think it’s unlikely the Jazz make a big splash type move in the next four days, although the team’s recent struggles could change things. About a month ago I opined that there was only a 1% chance the Jazz would move any of the nine rotation players, and while that hasn’t changed much the 6-6 stretch might convince me to revise that to a 5-10% chance at this point for a couple of reasons.

While the Jazz still don’t qualify as all-out buyers, they are probably listening a little more intently than they were a week before the All-Star break.

Not surprisingly, several of the questions in this batch focused on Bojan Bogdanovic, who hasn’t performed as well this season as he did in his first campaign with the Jazz.

Let’s jump right in!

Should the Jazz trade Bojan Bogdanovic?

@TBRINK72

Of course the Jazz should trade Bogdanovic¹… as long as they can net a return that improves the team. If the franchise’s brain trust can wrangle a deal that qualifies as a no-brainer, pull the trigger without hesitation. But here’s the catch: very few deals are no-brainers. Most trades involve swapping one set of imperfections for another. Could the Jazz find better defensive player? Sure, but it probably won’t be someone who’s a career .393 long distance shooter, so it becomes a game of swapping out one weakness but adding another.

A good GM will also weigh the idea of selling low vs. selling high (a Bogdanvic deal this week would probably involve the former), as well as the possibility that the player in question could just return to form, making him more valuable on the court than the assets that might be received in return. I know it’s a cliché that sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make, but clichés become clichés because they’re repeated often, which is partly because there’s some truth to them.

I’ll also add here while Bogdanovic is feeling the most heat in social media, he’s far from the only player who isn’t playing up to par. Presumptive Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson has really slowed down, Derrick Favors hasn’t provided quite the boost the front office was hoping for, and even Royce O’Neale and Donovan Mitchell have lacked defensive energy or focus in recent games. 

Where are we going to trade Bogdanovic?

@TBRINK72

Who should we trade Bogey for? And why is it Aaron Gordon?

@Jeffneedham79

In discussions around Bogdanovic, fans have become pretty fixated on names like Aaron Gordon, John Collins and Victor Oladipo. Those are some good names. If the Jazz dealt Bogdanovic and received those players in return, I’d feel pretty good about two out of the three², but I just don’t see Orlando, Atlanta, and Houston, respectively, in the market for a 32-year-old Bogdanovic with two years remaining on his contract. To be clear, I don’t think the contract is untradeable at all, I just don’t think he’s the type of player that those teams are seeking. If there’s a deal to be made with any of those teams, look for a third team to be involved.

As for Gordon specifically, he’d be a good fit, as both a defender and a distance shooter, although he doesn’t have quite the same gravity Bogdanovic has³. He’s an improvement as a rebounder and a passer, and he knocks six years off the clock, so I think he could be a nice acquisition, but until I see it, I don’t see a deal there that doesn’t involve a third team.

Who can they trade for to improve their defence? Does that person exist, or does defensive improvement rely on looking at themselves in the mirror and giving themselves a firm kick up the backside to get themselves into shape? @iamzusuf

Let’s answer the second question first. The Jazz players, in their abundant moments of quiet introspection on these hotel-bound road trips, should absolutely be dedicating themselves to better defensive intensity. The Washington game was a great example of not exerting nearly enough effort on defense and paying the price in the end.

Going back to the first question, who would help? About a week ago, SCH’s Dan Clayton tweeted a list of defenders who have above-average results against the pick-and-roll ball handlers and iso scorers, and who also shoot 35% on catch and shoot threes.

Players who are above average guarding P&R ball handlers AND iso scorers (end of play only) and also shoot 35% or better on catch & shoot 3s. Sorted by overall D-RAPTOR.

As usual, a pretty elite list. pic.twitter.com/QIPFqbNs4C

— dan clayton (@danclayt0n) March 14, 2021

This seems like a good place to start, and if we skip over players who aren’t reasonably attainable, it’s a pretty short list. My abbreviated version of the list looks like this: Rudy Gay, Oladipo, Raul Neto, Gordon, Harrison Barnes and Taurean Prince.

And speaking of Gay…

What is Rudy Gay’s value to the Spurs/Jazz right now? Where does he fit into a playoff rotation? @Run_Pappy

Gay is high on this list and felt a bit underutilized in San Antonio at 22 minutes per night until I remembered he’s nearly 35 years old. His role in San Antonio is probably about perfect for a guy of his tenure: a veteran presence off the bench who can shoot (.388 from three this season) defend (he owns the league’s best DefRtg among players with over 500 posessions), and close games when needed. With the Spurs very much in playoff contention, and perhaps feeling bullish about a move up after LeBron James’ injury Saturday, it’s really hard to imagine the Spurs cutting another veteran presence loose.

If he did somehow shake loose in the post deadline buyout market, I’d expect the Jazz to make some calls – and probably enlist Gay’s former Memphis teammate Mike Conley as a recruiter as well – but Gay would have no shortage of suitors.

What’s the likelihood the Jazz use a trade exception? Who are some players that we could use it on? (I for one would love Lauri Markkanen but don’t think we have the assets to trade for him) @utahjazzman47

The likelihood that any small to midsized TPE is used is generally pretty low, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen. The Jazz technically have three available: one from the Ed Davis trade ($5.0M), the Tony Bradley TPE ($3.54M), and a completely useless exception from trading Rayjon Tucker ($340K). Because exceptions can’t be combined with each other or anything else, the Tucker TPE really only exists on paper. I can’t think of a single practical application that would allow it to be used.

Unless the Jazz have an opportunity they just can’t refuse, I think it’s more likely they carry these TPEs into the offseason, when they still may not use them due to luxury tax issues. Any use of a TPE would result in the Jazz paying the remaining portion of the acquisition’s salary plus the tax on the players’ full-year salary. There are a couple of examples in the following questions.

Lauri Markkanen wouldn’t fit into either of the two TPEs, so a deal for him would probably require Royce O’Neale or three of the Jazz’s sub-$2M salaries. I wouldn’t hold my breath for either of those potential deals.

Can Moe Harkless be had for the Bradley trade exception and Jazz take on his salary with the BAE, as he was signed with by Miami? @Dan44469078

The BAE can’t be used to acquire players by trade, but yes, the Jazz could acquire him into the TPE. The Traded Player Exception that was generated when Tony Bradley was traded is worth Bradley’s salary, or $3,542,060. Teams are able to trade for players making up to this amount plus $100,000, which would fit Harkless’s salary of $3,623,000 almost perfectly. They also have to keep the hard cap in mind when contemplating using the TPEs — because they used the non-taxpayer version of the Mid-Level Exception to sign Favors, they are not allowed to exceed $138.9 million in salary, even counting unearned incentives. But if the salary numbers I’ve seen are accurate, they could still acquire Harkless and stay roughly $200K below that line. Now should they? That takes us to the next question.

What is your personal opinion of James Ennis and Maurice Harkless? Do you feel either are available to the Jazz via trade? Do you feel either would fit the Jazz? @HoboJTheJazzFan

Moe Harkless is probably 110% available to any team that would take his salary. He has played in just 11 games for the Heat this season, and currently seems relegated to the once-a-month rotation. Given that the Heat just added Trevor Ariza this week, Harkless is likely even more buried on the bench. I assume that the Heat still have him around in case his salary is useful in a trade, but I expect he will be waived after the deadline. That said, he’s not a plus defender, and he’s a career .326 shooter from distance. I don’t think he’s someone the Jazz would be looking to pay (the rest of his salary plus an estimated $5.4M in tax) or play.

James Ennis is similar. He has played more for his Florida team, but hasn’t logged minutes in the Magic’s last eight games. He’s an average defender, and shoots .356 from downtown on his career. Now, if the Jazz think they could use an average defender for ten minutes a game and weight this year’s .447 three-point shooting more heavily⁴, could they roll the dice on Ennis? Sure, but I still think it unlikely that they want to pick up half a season of his salary and a potential $5M in luxury tax.

Would you consider trading a first round pick and a small contract for Lu Dort? @clayson_searle

Dort is a great energy player, especially on defense, but his shooting is a little suspect (38% from the field, 33% from three, for a TS% of .572). In general I think teams with late first round picks would consider that trade anyway, but why would the Thunder do that? Remember, the Thunder also want to improve in any deal they execute, and trading away a player who contributes well beyond his salary doesn’t seem like the way to do that. They also already own roughly a million draft picks.

Is Otto Porter a buyout candidate? @45ForMVP

Sure, technically anybody is a buyout candidate, but I doubt the Bulls are quite ready to go there at this stage of their season.

Chicago is currently in a tie for the Nos. 9 & 10 seeds, meaning if the season ended today, they’d qualify for the play-in games and could potentially make the playoffs. They are only three games out of the No. 4 seed, but also have the Raptors and Wizards within three games. In short, they’re still within reach of homecourt in the first round or missing the play-in games – and playoffs – entirely.

My best guess is that they might consider releasing Porter if that’s what he wants, but don’t plan to make a decision until they have to, right before April 9. That’s the deadline to waive Porter while still allowing him to be eligible for the playoffs with a new team. If the Bulls go on a nice run and seem poised to reach the postseason, Porter probably finishes out his contract in Chicago and becomes a free agent in the offseason. If they slide to the point where that looks unrealistic, they might do Porter a solid and let him join a contender.

Trade Bojan! Trade Clarkson! Maybe Don & Rudy too. START THE REBUILD. Just kidding, but I am still not convinced this team’s ceiling is not the 2nd round. But just because I’m curious, if the Jazz decided to do a rebuild, how much do you think they could get for their entire team of vets? @CarsenLindorff

There is no rebuild in Jazzland, but if the Jazz were starting the business of shipping out veterans for assets, all I can say is that they’d end up with a pile of picks and prospects, much like the Thunder and, to a lesser extent, the Rockets have. It would be impossible to speculate on how many or how good those assets would be, but the Jazz would have not problem selling assets.

That’s all for now. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @k_clayt to talk trades between now and Thursday, and if there’s enough scuttlebutt between March 25 and April 9, I’ll do one more of these focused on buyout rumors.