Reader Q&A: Keeping Conley, Tax Man Cometh, Trade Ideas & More

Can Utah keep Conley, who has been playing at an All-Star level? (Brian Babineau via espn.com)

Yeah, we get it: it feels crazy to talk about trades when the team we cover is currently 19-5, having won all but once in their last 16 contests. The Jazz are rolling, and as tempting as it is to treat this like NBA2K and just keep tinkering for the sake of tinkering, the team already appears on a course toward contention.

That said, trade season is heating up in earnest. Most players who signed offseason deals had their trade restriction lifted Saturday, so nearly everyone in the league is tradeable again. (For Utah, that means Derrick Favors, Jordan Clarkson and Shaq Harrison can be dealt. We’ll drop a full list of who can and still can’t be traded at the bottom of the article.) That means the rumor mill is about to pick up between now and the March 25 trade deadline.

The Jazz seem to really like their current group, and with good reason. They have a solid 9-man rotation that has captured the NBA’s best record while posting elite defensive and offensive numbers. They can win in a variety of ways, and they have two All-Stars under 30 locked up for the long term. There’s a good chance they’ll trust their recent moves and conduct only some minor housekeeping transactions — or none at all.

But just in case they do more than that, we asked for your questions about the Jazz’s roster, assets and salary cap. Here’s one writer’s best guess as to the answers:

With Rudy Gobert’s and Donovan Mitchell’s new contracts kicking in, what are the odds of resigning Mike Conley in the offseason? He’s been playing really well this season. @cmkop

The Jazz can definitely re-sign Conley — if they’re willing to pay the luxury tax. The “Bird rights” they acquired with Conley in their 2019 trade allow them to sign him to any number up to his max salary, but even a contract starting at half that number would push them well into the tax for next season. So it’s just a question of what they’re comfortable offering, or whether Conley simply wants to play elsewhere. Given that he’s entering the later stage of his career, Utah probably wants to stay well below max salary on a new deal, but they also certainly recognize his tremendous impact on winning.

I’ll have something soon on what the market for Conley could look like. Some middling-to-bad teams could use cap space to make a run at the veteran guard. But someone like the Clippers or Lakers would have to try to entice him with a much smaller contract. Dallas and Miami were saving their money for Giannis Antetokounmpo and could redirect their energy to someone like Mike — but they hardly look like contenders at the moment.

The other human angle to this is the fact that Conley has never experienced free agency. Both times he would have been a free agent, he extended early instead. So he may just be looking forward to being wooed and hearing teams pitch him on their vision.

But as far as the Jazz being financially able to re-sign him — yes, they can. It will put them in the tax, but it sounds like they’re willing to do that for a team that’s reasonably close to contention.

Conley is playing awesome but does it make any sense to trade him for something if Jazz don’t plan to retain him? Do they plan to retain him because any feasible amount puts them in the tax, but a trade that matched salary puts them in tax next year too? @Dan44469078

Well first of all, the Jazz very much plan to retain him — or at least to try. It would also be hard to get equal on-court value in a trade given Conley’s age and expiring contract. With a legitimate shot to make some noise this season, I can’t see them downgrading from Conley at this pivotal moment in their window just out of fear for what might happen in August. And if he does leave, it’s not like they get literally nothing in return — if nothing else, his salary slot coming off would give them flexibility to think about how they’d like to use their exceptions. They could also try to work with his new team to create a large trade exception.

I always get confused about trade exceptions. How can they be used? Any ideas how the Jazz could use theirs if they feel they can win it all and (new Jazz owner) Ryan Smith is willing to pay the price? @JazzNationBr

Trade player exceptions (TPEs) are created when a team brings back less salary in a trade than they send out. It creates a “credit” they can use for 12 months. Utah currently has two of them: $5M from the Ed Davis deal and $3.5M from Tony Bradley. (The Rayjon Tucker doesn’t create a usable exception since only $340K of his $1.5 was guaranteed.)¹ They can’t be added together, and they can’t be combined with players’ salaries. You can only acquire a player (or players) with salary that fits into a single TPE, with $100,000 of wiggle room. (While you can’t aggregate TPEs with other salary, you can use them in the same trade. For example, the Jazz could theoretically trade, say, Udoka Azubuike and acquire a $3M player and a $4M player, because they could use Dok’s salary to acquire the $3M guy and the Davis TPE to acquire the $4M guy.)

What complicates things this year is the fact that the Jazz are hard-capped. Because they used a non-taxpayer exception to add Favors, they are prohibited from going over the apron ($138.9M) at any point this season. So it’s not even about Smith’s “willingness” to take on more salary. At a certain point, they just literally can’t. These particular TPEs will be available into the offseason if they don’t use them now — although honestly, most smaller TPEs expire unused.

How much salary would Utah have to shed to stay under the tax this year? It’s hard to pin down with the various incentives in contracts and I’m not sure how contracts traded mid-season factor into tax calculations. @RossHunneds

If Gobert makes the All-Star team, is that an extra $1 million they’d have to shed? Wasn’t the earlier scenario to duck the tax cutting Shaq Harrison plus one of Miye Oni/Juwan Morgan? Seems pretty unlikely at this point. @zarinf

Yeah, incentive details are hard to nail down. Also, Morgan counts slightly higher than his actual salary for tax purposes: $1.7M instead of $1.52M. If the estimates I’ve pieced together are right, the Jazz are $2.07M into the tax. Gobert’s $1M All-Star bonus is already included in that figure; because he was an All-Star last year, that bonus is considered “likely” and is already reflected in his salary. If other guys have bonuses that they did not hit last year (“unlikely”) but they do reach this season, it could push the number higher. But for right now, they would need to move a couple million to dodge the tax.

Players traded in season come off a team’s cap sheet completely, but players waived in season still count towards the tax: either at their guaranteed amount or based on the prorated salary they earned to date. So the Jazz can’t simply waive non-guaranteed guys and get under the tax. They’d have to find a team to take them. Then they’d have to replace them on the roster, but they could do that cheaply with 10-day contracts or prorated rest of season deals.

So yeah, Zarin is right: at this point, the only way to dodge the tax without moving a rotation guy would be to dump two smaller salaries, then replace them with prorated minimum contracts after the deadline. Harrison hasn’t seen real rotation minutes yet (as the meme says, I am disappoint), but someone else would have to be moved as well. Georges Niang is too ensconsed in the rotation. Oni and Morgan have both looked promising when called upon. They probably don’t want to move their 2020 draft picks, Azubuike and Elijah Hughes, in a pure salary dump. So I’m not sure they’ll do it, unless there’s someone they know they can get in the veteran buyout market. Quin Snyder doesn’t use his 11th through 14th men a lot anyway, which is why I initially thought they’d pull this maneuver. But they may just bite the bullet.

I keep thinking about a wing defender off the bench who can stay with quick scoring guards, to avoid the Jamal Murray catastrophe from last year. When can Kris Dunn be obtained? What might it take to get him? Or can little Shaq do that if need be? @mattpacenza

Jazz are contenders this season. With that said, do you think a trade to improve their ability to defend likely playoff foes like James, Leonard and Nikola Jokic, who can feast come playoff time? Is there a defensive player you think the Jazz can acquire without chemistry issues? @EcclesRice

What kind of move would make sense that wouldn’t disrupt the clear chemistry of this team? A longer, athletic wing who could help check some wings the other contenders have would help. Is there any way Royce can grow another 3 inches and stretch his arms? @Capneo1

Tackling these questions together, as they’re all about different types of players the Jazz purportedly can’t guard. You’d never guess they were the league’s #2 defense!

Let’s talk about their defense for a minute: the Jazz have a unique style that emphasizes the talents of maybe the galaxy’s best defender. Because they guard a certain way, they have decided that they don’t necessarily need lockdown defenders at every position. Gobert’s presence allows perimeter defenders to aggressively deny shooters, daring them to venture instead into the windmill arms of the 2-time DPOY. They know that guys will occasionally score (their rim defense is actually pretty average because they’re begging guys to drive instead of shoot threes), but they’re playing the percentages.

So when a player gets big numbers, that doesn’t always mean they “can’t guard” that guy. Sometimes they want a team/player to score in a certain (less efficient) way becuase it puts a ceiling on their opponent’s production in the bigger 5-on-5 picture and gives them a chance to win. Like the Jokic example: it might feel exasperating to see the big fella drop 26+ on .624 true shooting in that playoff series, but the Jazz were +5.1 in Jokic’s minutes for the series. They chose to focus on limiting his other great skill (facilitating), knowing he would score. And in a 5-on-5 sense, it allowed the Jazz to play winning basketball during Jokic’s minutes. (Then this past Sunday they tried something different on him and it just plain didn’t work. But the point is we should evaluate how the defense works against a team as a whole, not just look at one player’s stats and assume the Jazz are flawed.)

At any rate, back to the specific questions… Dunn can be traded started Saturday, but the sense I get is that the Jazz aren’t very interested because he’s so limited offensively. And here comes a big list of larger defensive wings…

Can we get a list of at list of big wings who are average 3 pt shooters who are also plus defenders? Really I’m thinking someone who can at least somewhat check the Kawhis and LeBrons of the world who can also fit in our offensive system. They seem like really rare players. And then can you proceed to break our hearts and tell us why it’s near impossible to acquire a guy like that without giving up too much of what we have. @caseygreer2

I actually made just such a list before free agency. There were just 16 wings last season who shot at least 35% on catch-and-shoot threes, were positive in Defensive PIPM, and were above average guarding the ball in both pick-and-roll and iso situations. Sixteen. Two of them are already employed by the Jazz: Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles.

Many of the remaining 14 are unattainable All-Stars (Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Khris Middleton, James Harden, Gordon Hayward, LeBron James). Then there are a handful of known 3-and-D specialists. Trevor Ariza has yet to play this season, though, and Wesley Matthews is having a down year at age 34. O.G. Anunoby has a pending extension that complicates the trade math (and probably isn’t available anyway) and Gary Harris probably makes too much.

That leaves four young fellas. I love Bruce Brown, Matysse Thybulle and Sterling Brown, but they’re all 6-foot-5 or smaller. Brandon Clarke is 6-foot-8, but he’s a stud on year two of a rookie contract, so good luck getting Memphis to pick up the phone.

You could certainly relax some of the criteria and get more names in the mix. (Harrison, for example, was below average guarding isos, but hit all of the other criteria, part of why I liked him for the Jazz.) And I haven’t checked yet to see if anybody new is hitting those criteria this season.

Hate to be a hater, but I hate the lack of effort from Bojan Bogdanovic, even though he has a beautiful set of offensive skills. What do you think we could get for him? Could we get better by moving him? @Josemaybe

I don’t agree about Bogey’s effort, and again, I think you have to put a player’s actions in the context of what’s being asked of him within the offensive and defensive systems. I think the Jazz are, broadly speaking, pretty happy with Bogey. He’s not off the table completely, but you’re not likely to get a real star back in a Bogey trade. So would a more lateral kind of trade (think Harrison Barnes or Tim Hardaway Jr.) be worth the possible chemistry disruption? Maybe. Sometimes title teams get over the hump by taking that risk. I think the Jazz keep Bogey, though.

What’s Niang’s upside given his evolution, size and lateral speed (not the quickest)? Is he a long term Jazzman? @miller_tom

At their most bullish, the Jazz were excited about Niang as a potential Ingles type player: a big wing with sweet shooting and some facilitation skills. They’ve probably toned down the projection since then (testing him out at the 3 early last season mostly didn’t work). But as long as Niang can defend inside the Jazz’s scheme — again, he doesn’t necessarily need to be a 1-on-1 stopper — I think he’ll have opportunities. He could be a little more consistent from outside for someone considered to be a shooting specialist, but I think the key for him to stay in an NBA rotation is staying in front of guys when he’s supposed to.

I don’t think the Jazz are gonna do anything, but I am interested to hear what you think is going to happen with JJ Reddick? @jazzfandanman

Yeah, I’m not sure Redick adds a component to the Jazz they don’t already have covered, so I agree with you there. I’d say watch Philly (Doc Rivers connection), but they’re also rolling, so they may not want to mess with things and give up pieces. It’s more likely he winds up with someone just outside the contender class. He could really help Dallas, although a lot of their problems are on the defensive end.

Where do you think Beal ends up? Of his list of five teams, which one do you think is most likely to trade for him? @punk_003

Beal’s list was somewhat surprising, in that it included a couple of teams that you don’t always hear atop stars’ trade demand lists. Of those five teams, it’s hard to imagine the Lakers and Clippers landing him, asset-wise. Miami mostly has older veterans on short contracts, so their offer would have to be pretty draft-heavy, and they’re strapped there; they can’t trade a first until 2027. So I guess we have to wait and see if Dallas (Kristaps Porzingis?) or New Orleans (Brandon Ingram? Lonzo Ball?) will be willing to part with a major piece or two to get him.

Any way the Jazz could get P.J. Tucker without losing the main 8 guys? @JazzNationBr

I don’t think the Jazz are after him, frankly. At this point, Tucker primarily adds value as a stretch five on a team that wants to play 5-out. That’s not the Jazz’s identity, and he doesn’t do any of the things Snyder wants from his centers. (He is not an anchor big on D, and he is consistently and legitimately bad as a roll finisher on offense.) So you’d have to want to deploy him at PF, but he’s only an average 3-point shooter and there is a growing list of people he can’t stay in front of. He’s just not a good fit for what Utah needs or how Utah plays. (And salary-wise, you’d almost have to include one of those main eight guys in the package anyway, so… no.)

Nemanja Bjelica for Niang & trade exceptions? @Dan44469078

Trade exceptions can’t be combined with a player, so this trade wouldn’t work. If they wanted Bjelly, they’d have to send out at least $4.06M. (There’s also a chance Bjelica could ask for a buyout since he’s expiring and since they rarely use him.)

Not a question of if, but when Kevin Love gets his buyout, do the Jazz have the means to go after him? @AlzonaRodel

I don’t think he gets bought out. Financially it makes no sense (he’s still owed $60M after this season) which is probably why a local reporter shot the rumor down, citing a team source. So we could talk about how he’s a 32-year-old who has missed 136 games (and counting) in the last five seasons, including the current one. Or about how the modern game asks different things of NBA fours than in Love’s 25-and-12 heyday. But it’s probably all moot anyway. The only way a buyout would make sense for the Cavs would be if Love surrendered literally tens of millions — which I don’t think he’ll do.

Some available FAs to round the team rotation like Kyle Korver or Ersan Ilyasova? @AlzonaRodel

ff the Jazz do wind up making the tax dodge play and there are veterans willing to fill deep bench holes without a guarantee of minutes, they might look at those guys. I just don’t see any current free agents who would really enhance Utah’s rotation. Korver and Ilyasova were barely inside Milwaukee’s rotation last year, and Korver in particular has sounded pretty unsure about continuing to play. The best available free agent by 2019-20 WAR is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, but the Jazz have veered away from players with his type of offensive limitations. Then there are one-dimensional bigs like John Henson and Kyle O’Quinn, neither of whom would find any minutes in Utah, or tiny guards Shabazz Napier and Jordan McLaughlin. Literally everybody else currently available as a free agent was a replacement-level player last year (or was out of the league). I just don’t see anybody on the free agent market currently who would definitely make Utah’s rotation better. Buyout market maybe.

Jerami Grant for Bojan? @landon182blinka

All season I’ve kinda loved the idea of somehow swapping Bojan for Jerami Grant, but I just don’t see it happening. Only real trade I think could make us better. @Novembrdowncast

I get the appeal: Grant has shown he can manufacture offense and not just be an opportunistic scorer. He’s also five years younger than Bogey. The Jazz get a lot from Bogey’s pure stroke and gravitational pull, but you could argue that Grant makes up for that with his athleticism and defensive chops. From Utah’s perspecitve, it’s at least an interesting thought exercise. Mostly, I can’t imagine why Detroit would play along. They’re clearly not contending in the short term, so Bogey (at nearly 32) might not fit into Piston GM Troy Weaver’s timeline. 

Wow, that was a lot of good questions! Thanks for the discussion. Below is a full list of details on the trade restrictions that lift this weekend, and others that expire later.

Trade restrictions and dates regarding various NBA players.

Update: add Dennis Smith Jr. and Derrick Rose to the list of players who can’t be aggregated in trades for the time being, after their teams agreed to a swap on Sunday.