Reasons For Optimism As Jazz’s Playoff Run Begins

There are a lot of reasons to embrace optimism, writes Mark Russell Pereira, starting with the Jazz’s healthy backcourt. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

It’s not hard to find reasons to be pessimistic about the Utah Jazz, who limped toward the 2022 NBA playoffs with a stretch of poor play, public bickering, and catastrophic meltdowns in clutch moments. At this point, there is an expectation that Utah will repeat its droning song of stomach-turning playoff exits.

I can’t say those pessimistic feelings are unfounded, but I also feel like such negative energy is unfairly overshadowing the truly good things that still exist about the Jazz. There is a real chance that the Jazz can make a deep run in the playoffs, and we need to start reconciling encouraging facts and truths against Utah’s admittedly pervasive issues.

I am legitimately optimistic heading into postseason ball, and here are some of the reasons why.

The Jazz are healthy.

This is a simple point that the team is quick to express positivity about, but isn’t being emphasized enough as a real advantage for Utah. It was a hot-button issue when Donovan Mitchell was kept out the first game of last year’s playoffs against his wishes, but given that he so easily reinjured it a few games later, it’s very plausible that Mitchell was never fully healed in the first place. He and others were hampered by issues all throughout last year’s playoffs.

Mitchell appears to be fully ready to go, after having a small ankle injury a few weeks ago. Both Bojan Bogdanovic and Rudy Gobert missed extended time for worrisome and finicky calf injuries, but they each were held out for long enough to allow for full repairs. Mike Conley and Hassan Whiteside have spoke encouraging words about their current health, which is notable given their age and injury history. The Jazz would be well-served to have a Joe Ingles-level utility wing in the fold as a ballhandling option who can occasionally defend bigger players, but at this point in Ingles’ career, he wasn’t a critical, irreplaceable piece as he was in the past.

The Jazz don’t have great depth, so any injury to a core piece would likely be fatal to the Jazz postseason hopes. But that isn’t the case right now, which is a source of genuine optimism.

Also, don’t count out health and safety protocols from being a factor this postseason. Coronavirus isn’t gone, and neither are the NBA’s rules regarding the disease. Every time the United States (or the world) has a relative lull in infections and deaths (as is the case now), it’s been followed by an aggressive surge spurned on by a new variant. Paul George missed the play-in game against the Pelicans because of it, and I don’t think he’ll be the last casualty¹. The Jazz have been fantastic over the past two years in their diligence against contracting coronavirus. Ttwo seasons ago they didn’t have a single player miss a game because of a positive test, and this year they were the very last team to suffer an outbreak.

Competitive drive always outweighs issues with personalities in the postseason.

The Jazz know the “vibes” are off. Quin Snyder is out there explaining lunch table arrangements of the team, after all.

But we underrate the unmitigated fervor that drives professional athletes to win championships, and how capable they are at blocking out annoyances in favor of performance. Mitchell could want the first flight out of Utah at the season’s end, but he sure as hell is going to give it his maximum in the playoffs to win a championship now. We don’t have to worry about Donovan not being a Jazzman until he is actually gone. Professional basketball players have a competitive ethos that is unfathomably ridiculous, and the innate desire for a championship is too great to be influenced by outside noise or internal social dynamics. Players also know a window to win titles can be incredibly small, so making every effort during its opening is imperative. Yeah, guys might not make the right play here and there because of trust or feelings, but they aren’t going to intentionally freeze anyone out, and baseline effort will never be a question. The bullshit surrounding Utah’s social dynamics really isn’t going to affect how they play basketball right now.

Playoff experience matters.

The Jazz have consistently concluded seasons with early exits from the playoffs for several years in a row, but a sneaky underlying side effect of that experience is that the Jazz core now has a ton of playoff games under their belt. Ability to understand postseason pressure is an acquired skill that can only come from actually participating in a playoff games. Mitchell has played 33 playoff games; Gobert, 43; Conley, 67(!); Bogdanovic, 41; Royce O’Neale, 34. Whiteside has 20 playoff games with a fiery Heat squad behind him. Danuel House has 16 high-stakes games played for contending Rockets teams. Jordan Clarkson has been around an NBA Finals squad before two postseasons with the Jazz. And a lot of Utah’s playoff exits have come against really, really strong teams, like the title-winning Warriors or a fully healthy Nuggets team (who fought well against the eventual champion Lakers); only the Clippers were a talent-based disappointment. The Jazz are unequivocally battle-tested against great NBA talent.

I think the concerns around mental execution when things go wrong are valid. But that would be a bona fide death knell if it was compounded with an inexperienced postseason team that gets surprised by playoff intensity. The bright lights won’t faze them, even if something else might.

The weaknesses are known, and there is more time to strategize.

I believe the players and Snyder when they have said numerous times that the repeated failures in the fourth quarter this season have been good for their overall team development. Gobert pontificated that last season’s waltz through a dominant regular season may not have suitably prepared them mentally and strategically when the Clippers punched them in the mouth and exploited Utah’s best ideas.

By having teams exploit Utah weaknesses, it has given the team a task list on things to improve. Snyder has appeared slow to adjust when the team starts falling apart, but I don’t think that’s necessarily indicative of what will happen in the playoffs. For one, there is just no urgency for any coach to immediately course correct in the middle of a regular season game, especially for a team that was always guaranteed to make the playoffs. And while I don’t think Snyder is hiding trick plays in his left shoe, it’s very plausible that he’s withholding strategies to counter opponents’ attempts to strike at Utah’s open sores. We’ve seen some more interesting looks from Utah this season than in previous regular seasons (like zone defenses and center-less lineups), but never regularly deployed when absolutely necessary.

I also find it impossible to believe that the Jazz have no idea how and when they are exploitable. Does Gobert not know how smaller teams are getting away with not guarding him at the rim? Has O’Neale not seen on film how screens are completely taking him out of plays? I think not, and I know that Snyder is acutely aware of the team’s weaknesses. Folks point to Jordan Clarkson’s occasionally questionable decisionmaking as a product of poor coaching, but Snyder absolutely knows Clarkson’s negative tendencies—it is a coaching decision at this point to enable Clarkson’s freedom to obtain its benefits, rather than selectively and ineffectively shackling him. There has been more practice and film time afforded to the Jazz this week then the entire 2022 portion of the regular season combined, by the way.

The only awareness point that gives me pause is Mitchell’s 4th quarter hero-ball choices. Mitchell has earned the right to do practically whatever he wants, and Snyder will always enable it. After a grotesque 0-for-6 performance in the fourth quarter against the Suns, though, Mitchell said that he only thought one of those six attempts was a poor decision², and that he has enough confidence to continue jacking up contested 20-footers. This raised my eyebrows.

But to continue the optimist streak, we know Mitchell is also a game film junkie and will review ways he can make better scoring decisions. And his track record of incredible clutch play definitely exceeds his recent stretch of muck. There’s a reason Mitchell has earned his confidence, and I’m fine going into the postseason trusting the dude.

The Jazz are really, really good at basketball.

We’ve collectively forgotten how truly lethal the Jazz can be. Snyder astutely pointed out that in order to lose big fourth quarter leads, you have to have established those leads to begin with. Lots of fans dismissed this comment as coachspeak, but it’s not like he’s wrong. Racking up huge second half leads against the Suns, Clippers, Warriors, and Grizzlies³ in the past month is absolutely the sign of a high-performing team, showing that the Jazz have the skill and strategy to get wins in any playoff series. I can’t lie and suggest the Jazz should easily win every series, but I would be stunned if any Jazz opponent takes fewer than six games to beat a team of this much quality

I know Jazz fans are pretty sick of hearing a bunch of stats about how great the Jazz are when they keep failing when it matters. But those high-level measures still matter and provide evidence of a competitive club. The Jazz are first in offensive rating. First! Not top-5, not top-3; the literal best offensive team in basketball. For as much as we wring our hands about how Utah is going to score in certain matchups, I guarantee you that Jazz opponents are getting headaches wondering how to stop the Utah offense. We certainly know the Jazz aren’t flawless with execution of some offensive details, but the basic structure of the offense is ridiculously difficult to slow down, let alone stop. If you look at lineups that solely consist of players that the Jazz will deploy in the playoff rotation, the Jazz offensive rating rises to a brain-exploding 118.3⁴.

Defensively, such lineups stand at 110.0, which is actually good enough to win games on its own if the offense is somehow not working. That 8.0 difference is almost as ridiculous as the offensive rating on its own. There are other lineup stats that suggest what Utah is doing is working, but I’ll just give one more: After losing Ingles and inserting House, the Conley-Gobert bench lineup is just destroying teams, with a +26.2 rating difference. There might be fewer minutes available to those lineups to mash on weaker opponent benches, but they are virtually guaranteed to give the Jazz an edge in every game they play.

Every playoff team has some flaws.

This is my biggest source of optimism, so I’m going to expel way too many words on this point. These playoffs are one of the most wide-open, unpredictable postseasons in recent memory. There is no juggernaut collection of stars that looks unbeatable. Every team, including Utah of course, has issues that can’t be hidden away in a playoff series. From there, one poorly-timed injury can quickly sink an entire team’s hopes, even if they’re only out for a couple games (see: Anthony Davis last year). So, while the Jazz give us various levels of gastrointestinal distress, they will have a real chance to win every series, and are a mere one good break from making a huge run. Let’s summarize the issues facing the Western Conference teams sitting ahead of Utah in the standings:

Dallas: The Mavs’ first round hopes took a major hit with Luka Doncic’s calf injury, which will keep Doncic out for Game 1, and possibly more. But even with Doncic, the Mavericks don’t have the strongest roster to support a consistent threat that can rip off four wins against solid opponents. Dallas has cobbled together a stunningly good defense without the strongest defensive personnel, but there might be too many holes to plug against Utah’s #1 offense. Dwight Powell has been a revelation coming back from a torn Achilles, and Maxi Kleber provides a stretch element for Dallas at center—both are solid defensive options at the 5. But both are simply outclassed by Gobert. Dorian Finney-Smith can singlehandedly shut down Mitchell at times, but Utah’s other offensive options will have significant advantages against more limited Dallas perimeter defenders. As much as the skill of ballhandlers Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie can pose for the Jazz, they aren’t unsolvable stars. The Mavericks will also need significant contributions from guys like Davis Bertans and Josh Green, who just aren’t worth worrying about over the course of a series. We’ll see if Doncic can swing the entire series at some point, but even a mediocre version of the Jazz should handle a Doncic-less Mavericks.

Golden State: The Warriors’ core is aging and showing real signs of creakiness. Stephen Curry is shooting by far his worst percentage from three in his career (still great, obviously), Draymond Green’s defense has looked pedestrian since he returned from a lengthy back injury⁵, and Klay Thompson is going to be playing in his first playoffs in three years. Together, those three have only played 22 possessions together this entire season. I personally believe in Thompson and the Warriors’ chemistry, but there are questions. Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole are quality pieces, but how will they perform in their first competitive playoff series? The rest of the Warriors rotation is full of exploitable flaws adjoining discrete NBA skills.

Memphis. The Grizzlies are awesome, extremely likeable, and a rare young team that has unwavering punch-you-in-the-mouth energy that might offset playoff inexperience. But you can’t ignore that they are drastically inexperienced, save for role players Steven Adams and Kyle Anderson. Ja Morant has just returned from a lengthy knee injury absence, so his health is a question as the playoffs draw long⁶. The Grizzlies’ main game is juicing the number of possessions by forcing turnovers and swallowing offensive rebounds—two areas that tend to not be as fruitful in the postseason. And would you really be stunned if the Grizzlies got bumped off by the resurgent Timberwolves?

Phoenix: The Suns are an extremely formidable opponent, but I don’t see them as runaway Western Conference favorite. For all of those mewing that the Jazz don’t have a top-10 talent to warp entire series in their favor, how do the Suns stack up in that respect? Both Utah and Phoenix have a pair of top-20 talents surrounded by great, good, and okay role players. Their difference in record is a matter of performance and execution over the course of a single season (important, to be sure), not talent and tangible ceiling. The Suns made the Finals last year, but running over Nuggets and Clippers squads after a partially Anthony Davis-less Lakers isn’t exactly a Mad Max: Fury Road gauntlet. They drew a good bracket and made the most of it with really solid play. In other words, was Phoenix a different draw away from a much, much sooner exit last year?

You’re going to see the Suns roll out bench lineups led by Devin Booker and supported by the likes of Cam Payne, Cam Johnson (my Sixth Man of the Year pick), Landry Shamet, and JaVale McGee. Is that really a lineup that Conley-Clarkson-House-Hernangomez-Gobert (+54.2 in 70 minutes so far) can’t match up with? The Suns have executed their gameplans with exquisite perfection (the Jazz…have not), and Phoenix’ primary offensive strength is an historically efficient midrange game, which traditionally just destroys the Jazz. So I’m worried about this matchup from a playstyle perspective, but I don’t see this as some great talent disparity that most are making it out to be, if it comes to it.

The Eastern Conference contenders all have issues of their own, of course, but even I can’t think that far ahead. And it’s unlikely that Utah will face the Western Conference teams at the bottom of the bracket, and those teams are at the bottom of the bracket for a reason anyways. The broader point here is that Utah has the horses to really have a chance against every opponent. Think of it as Utah making it to the final table of a huge poker tournament, and we’re looking at how many chips each player has to assess who is most likely to win it all. Phoenix is the chip leader, which matters, and there might be a few teams with a chip count edge over the Jazz… but Utah is just one big hand away from evening the score.

The Utah Jazz have absolutely annoyed and disappointed me as much as any other fan, but I cannot get to a point of pessimism that the team is already doomed. The future of the Jazz roster may be in peril if they experience yet another early postseason failure, but that hasn’t happened yet. From my perspective, it’s not a sure thing such a failure will occur, and hopefully I’ve given you some reasons to have a little more hope. For now, I’m grabbing a beer and legitimately enjoying the ride.