Roundtable: Questions, Concerns & Predictions Ahead of the Jazz’s Final 24 Games

Quin Snyder’s Jazz have 24 games left before a high-stakes postseason. (via utahjazz.com)

With about a quarter of their regular season still to play, the Jazz will resume the hunt on Friday evening.

Ahead of the playoff stretch run, a group of Salt City Hoops writers weigh in on the biggest questions, boldest predictions and most highly anticipated moments over the next six and a half weeks.

With 24 games left in the Jazz’s regular season, what’s the biggest question/concern you want to see answered between now and April 10?

Zarin Ficklin: Health was the biggest priority at the beginning of the season, and remains so today. While there are still questions about perimeter defense and focus, we have seen what this team can do when firing on all cylinders. Key injuries have factored into nearly every playoff exit during the Quin Snyder era, and I want to finally see what the Jazz can do in the playoffs with all their main players available. If they flame out for other reasons, then at least we can finally gain clarity on this team’s postseason ceiling. So my burning question is what steps will the team take to prioritize health?

Mark Russell Pereira: We need to see how the retooled bench shakes out. With no Joe Ingles, Utah was already looking at cribbing its playoff rotation to just use Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gay, and Hassan Whiteside off the bench in very specific roles. However, we will definitely see plenty of Trent Forrest and Eric Paschall over these last 24 games to not overtax the regular rotation, so I am curious to see if they continue their upward trajectory to make a case for playoff rotation minutes. Color me skeptical. Following that thread, I don’t see Nickeil Alexander-Walker being worthy of any playoff minutes this season, but that’s an open question for which I’ll be seeking an answer.

Clark Schmutz: I am most interested to see how Snyder divvies out playing time from now until the playoffs. It might be his most difficult job in his Jazz tenure to decide who should play and who should sit. The pecking order is set for the first six or seven guys, but as many as four or five players could compete for the eighth and ninth rotation slots. As a fan, it’s a good thing the Jazz have options as opposed to being short of talent, but Snyder’s rotation still has to be sorted out in time for the postseason.

Trevor Gustaveson: We’ve seen the Nuggets and the Clippers come up with tactics that have effectively reduced Rudy Gobert’s impact on the defensive end in past two postseasons. The Jazz have been stubborn, for lack of a better word, about breaking their game plan when in the midst of a playoff series, even as Terance Mann and Nikola Jokic busted schemes by hitting shot after shot. Can they come up with a game plan that is more effective to combat these counters? Or can they execute better in other areas to win regardless of their weaknesses on defense?

Kincade Upstill: The biggest concern for the second half of the season is the same concern they had when the it began: can this team defend at the point of attack? In the last year’s playoffs, Clippers coach Tyronn Lue went to a spread floor and the Jazz’s guards and wings couldn’t keep their man in front of them. Gobert is an amazing defender but even he can’t do enough to help his teammates out. The trade deadline passed without the Jazz making a major deal to shore up this weakness. All eyes will be on how they can improve here. Since his return from his concussion-related absence, Donovan Mitchell has provided some encouraging effort on the defensive side of the court.

David J. Smith: The biggest concern I have with the Utah Jazz is inconsistency—inconsistency with focus, execution, and sense of urgency. This is evidenced the shockingly high number of losses Utah has suffered after holding double-digit leads. While the Lakers game was concerning, the six consecutive wins before rekindled some faith. Over the remaining two dozen outings, it would be great to the Jazz bring a stronger level of consistency to the table. This will be vital for a deep postseason run.

The Jazz are 25-9 when Mitchell, Gobert and Mike Conley all play. Assuming no more lengthy absences for those three, how high can Utah still push its win total and playoff seed?

Zarin: FiveThirtyEight projects the Jazz to finish 52–30, good for 4th in the West. I think Utah’s record will have less to do with accumulating all the wins they can get and more to do with prioritizing health and jockeying for seeding. The end of the season projects to be a wild one. For example, a first round opponent could be the Dallas Mavericks or Minnesota Timberwolves — formidable, but flawed. Or it could be against the Denver Nuggets or Los Angeles Clippers, who may or may not have superstars returning to their lineups just in time for the playoffs. Utah could catch the 3rd seeded Grizzlies isn’t out of the question, but they may be more incentivized to target a lower seed if if keeps them in a more favorable matchup. For example, would you rather face the surging Memphis Grizzlies without homecourt, or deal with a rematch against the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George potentially returning?

Mark: Utah can, and should, fight hard as hell to catch Golden State and snag the No. 2 seed, which I don’t see as ridiculous at 5.5 games back. This isn’t because I have some grave concern about facing Phoenix earlier than later. (Bring them on whenever; I don’t give a shit.) Rather, it’s because I think it behooves Utah to avoid Dallas and/or Denver in the 4/5 or 3/6 matchups. Those teams will be very strong come playoff time, and I really don’t want to spend the summer prognosticating Mitchell’s emotions about Utah if the Jazz drop a first round series to those squads.

Clark: It’s probably an unpopular opinion, but I think the 4th seed is the Jazz’s ceiling at this point. Even if the Jazz had a best case scenario and went on a 19-5 run, for instance, the Grizzlies would need to go only 14-8 to keep the 3 seed, which seems not only possible, but likely. I also don’t think it would be in the Jazz’s best interest to sprint hard for a hot finish.

Trevor: I don’t particularly expect the Jazz to move from the 4th seed. That being said, we’ve seen late season surges in multiple seasons from Snyder-led Jazz teams. Snagging the third seed from Memphis might be possible, or even the second seed if Draymond Green’s extended absence causes Golden State to drop a lot of games. Despite the Jazz having a competitive schedule to close the season, I’ll be optimistic and project them to finish at a 70% win pace for the rest of the season: a 17-7 close.

Kincade: The Jazz dug themselves a big hole to climb out of after their struggles in January, but a higher seed isn’t out of reach. Two of the three teams ahead of them have injury concerns — the Warriors with Green and the Suns with Chris Paul. The Jazz could make up some ground, but don’t expect them to move up too much in the standings. The fourth seed is the most likely outcome.

David: The third seed is not out of the realm of possibility, but Memphis continues to play well and has a softer schedule. Conversely, Utah’s gets more difficult. Not a great equation. But injuries to Paul and Green are major factors for Phoenix and Golden State. That trio of stars makes the Jazz very, very formidable. If they truly remain healthy, the Jazz could prove to be very tough to finish up the last seven weeks. The fourth seed remains the most likely outcome, but these three All-Stars could make it interesting.

What single game in these last 24 do you have circled as being the most important, revealing or simply the one you’re most geeked to watch?

Zarin: April 2 against the Warriors should be a fun one. I’d love to see these teams lock horns at full force. Green may be back, and I’m sure Gobert has this game circled on his calendar. Both teams will have several days of rest, so sitting starters is less likely. It’s deep in the season, but not so deep that teams will be in full rest mode. This is a potential confidence-booster the Jazz could use to create momentum for the postseason.

Mark: The end of the season has so many red-circle dates—it’s going to be a thrilling ride. I’m drawing my thickest circle around the March 21 road game against the Brooklyn Nets. Like the Jazz, the Nets will likely prove to be a much tougher opponent than their record indicates. In a month, Brooklyn should be rounding into form with Ben Simmons in tow, and will prove a very interesting stylistic test for a Jazz team that doesn’t have a ton of individual matchup answers. I also have a feeling that several of the important dates against the Western Conference contenders will be missing key elements to draw real conclusions from.

Clark: March 23 at Boston. The Celtics have the best defense in the NBA, as of today, and they also employ a switching defense more than any other team. That game will be a great midterm exam and bellwether for the Jazz offensively against that type of active defense.

Trevor: The Dallas Mavericks that just traded away Luka Doncic’s co-star, which presents a number of questions. Will they run smaller now that Kristaps Porzingis is gone? Will they be able to force Gobert to switch onto Doncic often? Can Dorian Finney-Smith punish the Jazz if Gobert is his defender but prioritizes rim protection? Considering a lot can change over the weeks and either team may strategically rest one or multiple players at their later matchup, I’ll take Utah’s very next game vs. Dallas for the game I’m most geeked about.

Kincade: The Jazz play the Warriors and the Grizzlies once and the Suns twice; how the Jazz do against the best teams will tell a lot about how this team has grown over the course of the year. Outside of those key games, the team I am most excited to see the Jazz play is the Boston Celtics. Over the past month the Celtics defense has come into its own and ranks 2nd by NBA.com. The Jazz have one of the most potent offensives in the league and seeing how these two clash should be a lot of fun.

David: It is cliché, but every game becomes more important as the regular season ebbs closer to its finish. It is difficult for me to place too much emphasis on one game, but I am eager to see how the Jazz do versus the Suns (twice) and Mavs, two teams that could be playoff foes. I also look forward to seeing Utah tilt against the defending champion Bucks and the reconfigured Nets.

What do you think the Jazz do with the 15th roster spot: promote Trent Forrest, sign a buyout/FA guy, or leave it vacant?

Zarin: Promoting Forrest seems like the obvious move. Let’s address that Gary Harris is 1) a dream-fit buyout candidate, and 2) extremely unlikely to sign with the Jazz if he is bought out at all. With that out of the way, the Jazz need to ask if any potentially available players are better than Forrest or other end-of-bench players already on the roster. Robin Lopez would be a solid pickup as insurance. But would he expect the backup center minutes, and how would that affect Hassan Whiteside’s confidence? Is Eric Bledsoe worth it? Are Cory Joseph or Tomáš Satoranský more reliable than Forrest? Perhaps. Utah also has the option to sign Forrest, then buy out Juancho Hernangomez if they find someone they really like. Just signing Forrest is the most likely bet.

Mark: I think it’s pretty obvious Forrest will get that spot (sorry, anti-climactic response). If the NBA allows two-way players like Forrest to play in the playoffs—a rule change the NBA temporarily made for the past two postseasons—then I expect Utah to keep the roster spot empty (sorry, even more anti-climactic response). There’s no reason for Jazz owner Ryan Smith to spend more luxury tax money on a fifteenth guy.

Clark: The Jazz will shop in the buyout market, but after no one game-changing is available, they will sign Forrest, so that he can play minutes in the playoffs if needed.

Trevor: I’m rooting for them to sign Forrest, and I think that is the route they will take unless an obvious buyout candidate like Harris becomes available. I know that Forrest has holes in his game that could be much more problematic in the playoffs, but we’ve seen a couple of ways the Jazz can play to mitigate the spacing issues he causes, and assuming good health he wouldn’t see the floor in the playoffs anyway. Forrest brings defensive skills to the table that are unique among Jazz players, and he has shown development can go a long way for him.

Kincade: The odds have to favor Forrest getting the spot and has earned it with the growth he has displaced this season. He might be this team’s best on-ball defender. The only buyout guy that would move the meter for the Jazz is Harris, whose defensive strength would really help shore up the Jazz’s main weakness. But alas, according to Marc Stein, Harris isn’t “pushing for a buyout” from Orlando.

David: The Jazz will definitely not leave this spot vacant. All signs point to Forrest’s two-way deal being converted to a regular roster spot. The second-year guard has been a terrific two-way mini revelation. Utah will need him for the playoffs. The buyout market seems quiet right now, but who knows what could happen. Should an impactful player become available (Harris? Satoransky? Kent Bazemore?), the Jazz could waive up-and-coming Netflix actor Juancho Hernangomez and still convert Forrest. But then they’d be unable to leverage Hernangomez’s non-guaranteed contract this offseason. My money is on Forrest nabbing that spot.

What’s your boldest prediction about these last 24 games?

Zarin: The Jazz won’t be afraid of losing home-court advantage in the first round. They have the fifth-toughest remaining schedule. They need a healthy roster. Playoff matchups are arguably more significant to the Jazz than other contenders. Losing in the first round would be disastrous to this team, so I would not be surprised if their seeding position is extra-engineered, even if that means targeting a lower seed over pushing for 3rd place.

Mark: Gobert will deploy his most dominant defensive stretch ever, shining even brighter in matchups against the league’s best teams, which will forcefully shift the national media narrative back in his favor to get his fourth Defensive Player of the Year honor. Improved Jazz perimeter defense will make Gobert look transcendental.

Clark: I think the Jazz will prioritize strategic resting and lineup experimentation over wins and end the season as the 6th seed in the playoffs. AND I think it will be the right strategy.

Trevor: I’d love to predict that Rudy Gay will turn his season around in the last couple of months, but I don’t particularly see him turning it on to the extent that would justify “bold prediction” status. So I’ll go with a fun one: Mitchell gets the Jazz their first triple double since 2008.

Kincade: This Jazz season has been filled with plenty of ups and downs that have been very frustrating to watch. I would expect much more of this. Snyder needs continue to prepare his team for what opposing teams will try throw at them. This regular season is the time to get his team ready.

David: I predict that Snyder and his staff will tinker a bit over the next two weeks to better determine the rotation that gives Utah the best chance. Forrest, Paschall and Danuel House Jr. all have shown the defensive energy and versatility the Jazz have desperately needed. Are they game-changers? Maybe not. Could they help boost the overall defensive intensity for the team? Yes. It some ways, these hungry players might offer more than Gay, though I think he can add some important dynamics in the postseason. I think at least two of these three will assume rotational roles.