Salt City Seven: Adjusting Sans Kessler, Key Lineup Change, Sunday Stuff & More

Life is going to change for some Jazz players while Kessler mends, as we saw in Memphis. (Nikki Boertman via sltrib.com)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick look at the big, burning question of the moment in Jazzland

The Walker Kessler injury comes at an interesing time for Utah, and not just because it prompted Jazz coach Will Hardy to reimagine his starting five. (More on that shortly.)

It also give the Jazz an extended look at some different types of lineup constructions. Nobody has to tell Jazz fans, who have heard for years about screen assists and vertical spacing, about the value of a diving big. But playing without one gives you a chance to lean into different strengths.

The Jazz are probably not going to play literal “five-out” basketball all that much because they also don’t have the requisite on-ball killers to make that their core identity. But they do have some options to play differently. They can potentially run 48 minutes worth of sets where the main screener is someone who can roll, pop or playmake. Playing with a more open floor might simplify decision-making for guards (who, let’s be honest, have been struggling with decision-making), in a way that could carry over even when the big fella is ready to go again.

Make no mistake: the Jazz will be better in the long run with a healthy Kessler. Even with some early struggles, Kid Kessler is holding opponents to 44% at the rim, and the Jazz have found success lately with baiting defenses to collapse around the ball and give the second-year big open dunk after open dunk. They’ll be happy to get him back.

But it’s still interesting to see how they’ll navigate things in his absence, and if working around a different kind of big helps them figure some things out that can help even when he’s back in action.

Here are the three players whose lives will change the most in the absence of Walker:

John Collins. Collins has played a lot of center throughout his career, but the reality about him is that he’s probably best as a defensive 5 and an offensive 4. Now, he’s going to have to function more like a full-time center. Opponents shoot 62% at the rim with him defending, which is lower than league average but nowhere near Kessler’s domain. Though it’s worth mentioning they shot 10-of-20 against Collins in the two games without Kessler, so maybe he’s showing he can hold the fort for a minute. He has four blocks in Memphis.

Kelly Olynyk. Six of the nine most used Olynyk lineups last year featured Kessler. This year, he’s already playing almost entirely opposite the youngster, which is why B-Ref estimates that he has spent 90% of his minutes at center, compared to 52% last year. That’s a big role change. He’s kind of ill-equipped to be the same type of paint protector: his rim FG% allowed is 67.7% this year and has pretty consistently been in the mid-60s his whole career (aside from one outlier season at 58.6% in his second year). He knows that’s not what he is on defense and so he contributes quite differently than Kessler does. He also opens up a ton of possibilities as a screener because of his smarts against the second layer of defense. He’s having a career year this season in terms of per-minute and per-possession passing numbers.

The combined efficiency differential of all non-Kessler lineups so far this year is -0.7, which is actually quite a bit better than the team mark of -8.2. Interestingly, all of the positive sans-Kessler lineups (min. 10 possessions) involve Olynyk.

Jordan Clarkson. The geometry of the floor is going to look a little different now for Clarkson, and that could be a good thing as Clarkson looks to reignite the flame. He’s shooting a career-low 39% (.489 true shooting), and while a lot of that is due to a 3-point shooting slump, he’s also having one of his worst seasons ever at the rim and in floater range. Maybe having fewer bodies present as he carves and wiggles his way through the paint will give him a chance to fine tune things. Besides, if the Jazz spend more time playing literal five-out basketball, that’s going to increase the importance of guys who can break down a defender 1-on-1, and on this roster that primarily means Clarkson and his bench analog, Collin Sexton.

The Jazz probably won’t be asking anything wildly different of Lauri Markkanen on offense, although on defense he might have to spend more time in front of larger bodies. Ochai Agbaji and Keyonte George will get more minutes given the wing reshuffle that resulted from Kessler’s absence, but their development checklists still likely look roughly the same as before.

Telling or interesting words from Jazz people

“Best birthday present you could ever ask for… I’m truly blessed and thankful that this staff and organization are willing to trust me this early in the season to go out and try to get guys organized and, you know, run a team.”

George, prior to his first career start

George’s promotion to the starting point guard spot was probably the biggest story of the week in Jazzland. He’s already averaging 10.0 assists per game as an NBA starter (against just 1.5 turnovers), but he definitely needs to be more comfortable shooting the ball.

For a team whose most glaring weakness so far has been just a lack of offensive organization, the Key switch might be a moment we look back on later as a real inflection point, not unlike when Rudy Gobert left the Jazz no choice but to promote him up the big man depth chart in 2014-15, or when Donovan Mitchell was given the keys to an otherwise rudderless offense in the fall of 2017.

And here’s the thing: George will eventually figure out where his shots are going to come and be more confident in taking them. He’s a much better shooter than the 25% from the field (22% from deep) he’s shot over these two games. Eventually that will come around to complement the court vision and precocious passing ability we’ve seen.

Now, there are also pretty big questions facing Keyonte on the defensive end, but we’ll leave that for another time.  

Stats that tell the story of the week

38%

The Jazz are currently 0-6 in games where they don’t manage to shoot at least 38% on above-the-break threes. That’s another reason why George’s promotion could wind up being really important; he’s a much more credible pull-up threat than Talen Horton-Tucker, currently shooting 33% above the break. (Weirdly, THT has made seven of 11 from the right wing, but just two of 16 from the left or straightaway.)

0% (50%)

I did a whole thing on how we weren’t talking enough about Sexton’s hot year as a pull-up shooter last season, so it gives me no joy to report this: Sexton has not made a single off-the-bounce three yet this season, per NBA.com tracking stats. He’s 0-for-9 shooting off the dribble, but hitting 50% of his catch-and-shoot threes. Utah’s the second best in the league at catch-and-shoot threes, at 41.6%.

28th

The Jazz are dead last in terms of the percentage of their non-garbage, non-heave possessions that end with a turnover. But did you know they’re also third worst in terms of forcing opponent TOs? They have not had a single game where their opponent has exceeded their turnover total.

75% + 44.6%

Remember how big a deal we made last year of Markkanen’s ability to assault the rim while also pouring in 200+ threes? Turns out he’s having an even better year this year in both departments: his 75% percentage inside three feet and his 44.6% 3-point percentage are both career bests by a wide margin.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz win

Let’s give away a some circular recognition for Utah’s lone win this week, plus some consolation prizes for the two losses.

Jazz 127, Grizzlies 121: Jordan Clarkson. The popular vote on this one was Clarkson, so I went with that. In reality, I don’t think there was a huge difference between Clarkson’s night (26-4-4-2-1 on 70% true shooting) and Markkanen’s (26-7-1-2-2 on 83%). But Clarkson did hit the nail in the coffin, an off-the-bounce three to make it 125-119 with a minute left. But Markkanen was a close second, and Agbaji (season-high 15 on 6-for-8 shooting) and Collins (18 points including the game’s most memorable bucket) deserve honorable mentions. Oh, and George had 11 assists along with five clutch points.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 113, Bulls 130: Lauri Markkanen. Somehow despite this being a team-wide clunker, Markkanen managed 29 points on 15 shots. The only Jazzman to come within half of Lauri’s “win probability added” as measured by Inpredictable was Kelly Olynyk, who had a very complete night with 13-7-8. Walker Kessler also turned in a 15-and-15 double-double in his last game for a while.
• Jazz 118, Pacers 134: Jordan Clarkson. Clarkson got going in the third quarter (13) in a way we hadn’t seen for a while. Once again, Markkanen was more efficient, but Clarkson’s five assists means he was somewhat responsible for 44 of Utah’s points. Simone Fontecchio had some good moments, and Collins seems to be pretty automatic for mid-teens scoring and a handful of rebound (another 14 and 9 in this one).

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the broader picture

In lieu of the “Playbook” section this week, sometimes we use this space to track the playoff (and/or lottery) race to see how the Jazz are tracking. And the thing is, now that Utah is 10 games in, it’s not silly to think there’s some predictive value in what we’ve seen so far.

One of our favorite predictive systems to highlight in this space has been FiveThirtyEight.com’s NBA projection, now defunct after the site has pivoted fully away from sports. But 538 alumnus Neil Paine brought a similar model to the nascent sports site, The Messenger.

The early read on the 3-7 Utah Jazz is… not terribly encouraging.

And that’s in the “composite mode,” where the Messenger’s model is blended with implied betting odds. Back out those betting odds and Utah’s playoff chances are just 2.1% in Messenger-only mode, one of nine teams the model thinks have close to no shot (<0.1%) at a ring this season.

It’s still early. Models had the 2011 Jazz all but assured a playoff spot at 27-13 in January before the wheels came off, and conversely, the 2018 Jazz looked dead in the water at 19-28 before a 29-6 turnaround. Things change. But as of right now, the current Jazz season is projecting to be another fact-finding exercise and developmental laboratory, rather than the start of the club’s rise to competitiveness.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of action

The Jazz have nothing but home games this week. Here’s a couple of sentences on each.

• Tuesday, 11/14: Jazz vs. Blazers. **In-Season Tournament game** Prize rookie Scoot Henderson is going to miss some time, while Anfernee Simons and Robert Williams III are already out long term. That makes this visit from 3-6 Portland feel even more winnable, but beware: they just took the Lakers to the wire before losing their third straight.
• Friday, 11/17: Jazz vs. Suns. **In-Season Tournament game** The Suns have lost five of their last seven, including two straight fourth quarter fall-from-ahead collapses at home. That said, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker have yet to play a minute together, so it’s probably too early to really know how much of their struggles are real.
• Sunday 11/19: Jazz vs. Suns. The second Suns-Jazz game of the week happens to be the first Sunday home game the Jazz have played in nearly 23 years. The Utah-era Jazz have only hosted 12 Sunday games, and the most recent was a 109-98 win in January 2001 over, ironically, the Suns.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

The upcoming rarity of a Sunday Jazz game in Salt Lake City made this writer curious how the club has fared by day of the week.

Jazz success in SLC by day. (Source: stathead.com)

It’s not totally surprising that Thursday and Sunday have been rougher days, percentage-wise. Because Utah has mostly played on those days as part of marquee matchups on NBC (back in the day) or TNT (more recently), the opponent slate on those two days is assuredly harder on average than across the other five days of the week.

Here’s how you know just how long it’s been since Utah has hosted a Sunday game: in all 12 of their previous Sunday games in SLC, they have made a combined 24 3-point shots. That should tell you that these games were contested in a completely different era. It’s not crazy to think they could exceed that total in a single game given today’s very different style of play.

There go seven more days in the Jazz’s 2023-24 season.