Salt City Seven: Cardiac Kids, Standings Watch, Contract Stuff & More

Utah’s youngsters are contributing to close games — and wins. (Trent Nelson, The Salt Lake Tribune)

Every week during the regular season begins here at SCH with the Salt City Seven, a septet of recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

The Utah Jazz remain the NBA’s cardiac kids. Through trades, injuries and rotation changes, the Jazz are giving viewers as many photo finishes as nearly anybody in the league.

Only Miami has played more clutch games than the Jazz’s 47, a figure that means that two of every three contests involving the Jazz will be close within the final five minutes. Miami is also the only team they trail in the number of games ultimately decided by three points or less: they’re 10-6 in such games. Per ESPN Stats & Info, they’ve won more game by a single point this season (7) than any team in more than a quarter century. Those outcomes have been extremely fun, though some fans will note that they do little to change the Jazz’s present-day reality and reduce their chances of drafting a difference-maker this June.

But it’s not like Utah’s success in nail-biters is inflating their record. In fact, according to Cleaning the Glass, Utah’s win total is 1.4 games *lower* than it should be based on their +0.2 efficiency differential, which is a better mark than several teams currently ahead of them in the standings (Miami, Atlanta and both LA teams). Overall, they’re 21-26 in games that are close at any point in the final five minutes, so they’re not getting uncommonly lucky late or anything.

And, as Jazz coach Will Hardy has pointed out, there are plenty of encouraging signs about the way some of these close wins are happening.

“It’s always sweet when a bunch of guys each make a play down the stretch,” the first-year head coach said after the Jazz got another of those 1-point victories against Boston on Saturday. “It’s not like one person doing five things and they kind of carry us over the finish line. It was cool to see Talen (Horton-Tucker) make a big play, Ochai (Agbaji) make a big play… These experiences are huge for us.”

The coach also mentioned Lauri Markkanen’s multiple big moments, Kelly Olynyk turning a busted play into an Agbaji three, and of course Walker Kessler sealing the win with a late block on a go-ahead attempt in the lane.

Markkanen is almost too good by himself for the Jazz to shoot up the lottery ranks. The Finnish forward is averaging 29 on above-average efficiency since appearing in his first All-Star game. He’s on pace to finish fourth among qualified 20-ppg scorers in eFG%, behind only MVP-caliber megastars Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant.

Agbaji’s played one of his most impressive defensive games of the season, as the primary defender on Jayson Tatum within a Jazz scheme that held the likely first-team all-leaguer to zero points after halftime. He’s also trusting himself more on offense as the season goes along. And of course Kessler’s paint defense included the clinching play.

It’s honestly a little hard to be mad when the Jazz win games precisely because of noticeable progress from those three guys. If 35-year-old Mike Conley were still dragging the young Jazz roster to March victories, then sure, that “why though?” sentiment would make a bit more sense. But if they’re winning because Markkanen, Agbaji and Kessler are ahead of schedule as winning basketball players, isn’t that kind of the whole point?

Of course, the rebuild as a whole would still be undeniably helped by the addition of top-level talent. Nobody’s saying otherwise. The Jazz are unlikely to be competing for anything really meaningful this season, so at some point a move from, say, 11th pre-lottery draft position to 8th might be worth more than whatever you get from squeezing a couple more wins out of an already overachieving group.

But there’s also something to be said for all these clutch reps that young Jazz guys are getting.

“This is priceless experience for them,” Hardy continued. “It’s gonna be really important for us going forward.”

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

$1,000,001

Leave it to my accountant brother to figure out that the Jazz gave Kris Dunn just enough money on his rest-of-season contract to push his 2022-23 total just over the 7-figure mark. Dunn made $132,091 on each of his 10-day contracts with the Jazz, and played well enough to earn himself an invitation to stay beyond those two temporary deals. Because Utah hadn’t used its entire midlevel exception, the team was able to offer Dunn more than a prorated minimum, and reportedly offered enough to get him to a million in total Jazz salary.

The extra cash might be why Dunn was amenable to a non-guaranteed second season, which gives the Jazz the option to keep him around for veteran minimum money next season.

193

He did it! We’ve been tracking Markkanen’s rather special combination of dunks and threes, and when he nailed a triple late against Boston, he reached 193 for the season. That’s the most threes ever made by a player with at least 100 dunks in the same season.

10

At 150 blocks including Saturday’s game winner, Kessler needs just 10 more blocks to surpass Andrei Kirilenko for second most blocks by a Jazz rookie. (He won’t catch Mark Eaton for first, at 275.)

55.6%

The Jazz are somehow still playing .500 ball (7-7) since the trade deadline, even though their midseason trade saw three of the top six minute-getters leave. Between the four traded players and the still-injured Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, and the Jazz are currently playing without players responsible for 54.8% of their player minutes and 55.6% of their total points as of the February trade.

234

More contract stuff: Jarrell Brantley is back on a 10-day contract after appearing in 37 games over two seasons as a Jazz second-round pick (#50). He saw 234 total minutes of action in 2019-20 and 2020-21. He spent last season in Russia and just returned from a stint in Oceania, where his New Zealand Breakers lost the NBL finals less than 72 hours before he signed his new NBA contract.

Because his 10-day will be up less than two weeks before the end of the season, the Jazz can choose not to fill that 14th roster spot after the contract runs out. They also have a 15th roster spot they’re not currently using, but they could if they wanted to use the remaining midlevel (or the minimum exception) to give somebody a late look. 

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

The Jazz’s schedule remains tougher than any team within ±3 games of their current 34-36 record.

Portland is no longer within 3 games of Utah’s record, but LAC is again.

Utah is currently percentage points out of a play-in spot, a half game behind the eighth seed, a game and a half out of a guaranteed playoff spot, and 2.5 games ahead of the seventh best lottery odds.

So which way does it go from here?

Looking at the Xs and Os behind a successful play.

If you weren’t with us last week, a reader asked us to consider bringing back this bygone section where we’d dissect the play design behind a Jazz score, and we had fun looking at an Agbaji drive.

I figured we might as well keep it going, especially when I saw this play against Miami the other night. Anyone who has read these breakdowns before knows I love me a good decoy play:

To the defense, this looks like a simple DHO action between Dunn and Rudy Gay, with Agbaji looking like he might use an off-ball screen from Damian Jones to curl around to the ball once Gay has it. Because that’s what it looks like, Kevin Love is probably thinking he’s the weak side helper here, and you can see him pull all the way into the lane line as he looks pretty concerned about sniffing out whatever that on-ball action is going to yield.

But this play isn’t about any of that on-ball action. In fact, as soon as Gay receives the pass, that’s Agbaji’s cue to sprint into a staggered pindown for Simone Fontecchio. If you watch this slowly, you can actually see the moment where Love appears to think, “Oh crap.” Love is so far off of Fontecchio that he has no chance of recovering through the double pindown, which is why Gay confidently throws this pass while the Italian is still three or four running steps from his ultimate catch-and-shoot location.

The other nice thing about this play is the way it occupies the defenders of Gay and Dunn. Gay is a sub-30% outside shooter this season, and Dunn is a known non-threat from outside (although he’s shot well in limited attempts with the Jazz). Generally, it’s hard to run stuff with non-shooters away from the ball because defenses don’t have to honor them as much. But because they’re centrally involved in the setup here, the design keeps their defenders tethered to them while the real action is developing some 30 feet away.

It’s also nice that the Jazz are finding ways to help Fontecchio find his groove; he had five threes in that game, and he’s up to 43% on threes in the last seven games after an extended funk of 17% over 18 outings.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

Jazz 118, Celtics 117: Walker Kessler. THT really powered the comeback, Markkanen led the way as usual with 28-and-10, and Agbaji had a special defensive performance against Jayson Tatum. But when Kessler threw Grant Williams game-winning attempt into the next dimension, he basically sealed this one. His final line (12, 14 and three blocks) was sweet enough, but a game-saving block is even rarer than a game-winning shot. Per Stathead’s play-by-play tools, there have been only 13 blocks this NBA on shots to take the lead in the final five seconds of the 4th quarter or OT (9 of those with the score tied, 4 with the offensive team trailing), and Kessler is the only player in the league with two of those 13. As Hardy notes, though, a lot of guys came up big here. In addition to Markkanen and Agbaji, Olynyk (13-13-6) did a lot to help Utah win, and THT pounded his way to 19.

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 115, Heat 119: Lauri Markkanen. Usually when you shatter your career high before halftime, you’re nearly an automatic pick in this space. But with apologies to Fontecchio (whose 23 were really important, especially during a first-half spurt) Markkanen was too good. As automatic as breakout nights are, so too is a 38-point outing, especially with the bounce-back narrative since he had his first true stinker as a Jazzman just 48 hours earlier. This was a two-horse race between the Euros, but Agbaji really impressed, too.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

After a weirdly light week last week, the Jazz get right back into the thick of things with a 4-games-in-6-nights stretch.

Monday 3/20, Jazz vs. Kings: The Beam Team is rolling right now, at 11-2 since the break, including seven consecutive road wins. That’s the longest active road winning streak in the league, and tied for third longest this season. Their league-best offense is led by a pair of All-Stars who execute a flawless pick-and-roll dance in the middle of the floor, surrounded by shooters. One of those shooters — Kevin Huerter, having a career year — is questionable. The Kings and Jazz are tied with the sixth worst defense in the league, but without Huerter and Markkanen, who’s also questionable (back soreness), this one might not be quite the shootout it would otherwise be. 

Wednesday 3/22, Jazz vs. Blazers: Tank-friendly Jazz fans must have this one circled, as it’s probably the Jazz’s last chance at “catching” Portland, losers of six straight and nine of their last 11. There is talk that the Blazers might shut Damian Lillard down soon if they don’t start elevating towards a play-in spot, so their visit to Salt Lake is actually pretty vital. If they lose, the gap will be either 4 or 5 games (depending on Jazz-Kings), and it’s hard to imagine a path to 10th or better. A win could bring Portland back to within two games of the Jazz, which might convince them to see if their subsequent 5-game homestand (Bulls, Thunder, Pels, then two against the Kings) keeps them in it. Jerami Grant missed Sunday’s game, and that’s been the problem for Portland all year: their top four scorers have appeared together in less than half of their games. 

Friday 3/24, Jazz vs. Bucks: Welcome back, Joe Ingles! The beloved Aussie’s first game back in Utah makes this one of the most anticipated games of the remaining season, despite the fact that it has the Jazz running into an absolute buzzsaw. Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Jae Crowder and even megastar Giannis Antetokounmpo have all missed time recently… but it hasn’t mattered. The Bucks are 22-3 dating back to January 23. They have the best record in the league and are current title favorites. (Crowder, Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews are all also former Jazzmen, and Bucks assistants Vince Legarza and DeMarre Carroll both spent time in Utah, too.)

Saturday 3/25, Jazz @ Kings: More on the Kings: most projection systems have them and the Grizzlies at roughly a coin flip to determine Nos. 2 and 3 in the West. That could be really important: whichever team finishes higher gets a play-in team and then homecourt assured in round 2. So expect the Kings at full throttle. Domantas Sabonis is averaging 24-14-9 in his last seven games, and fellow All-Star De’Aaron Fox has more 30-point games (24) than all but seven NBA players this season.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

As we always do at this time of year, let’s see which Jazz players’ alma maters are still alive after the first (and objectively best) weekend of March Madness.

Still in it: Collin Sexton’s Alabama made the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed. Olynyk’s Gonzaga and Johnny Juzang’s UCLA also both made it, but they’ll face each other next, so only one will arrive at the Elite Eight. Gay’s UConn Huskies also advanced to the Sweet 16.

Second round: Kansas, alma mater to both Agbaji and Udoka Azubuike, was a top seed but suffered an upset by a singe point in the round of 32. Marquette, Juan Toscano-Anderson’s school, was also upset in the 2-7 matchup. Kessler’s Auburn and Jordan Clarkson’s Missouri also both lost in the second round.

One and done: Markkanen’s Arizona was upset in round one as a No. 2, Horton-Tucker’s Iowa state was toppled by the underdog in the 6-11 matchup. Dunn’s Providence and Brantley’s Charleston both also lost in round 1.

Not dancing: Jones’ Vanderbilt and Micah Potter’s Wisconsin didn’t make the tournament, but both are headed to the quarterfinals in the NIT as No. 2 seeds. Simone Fontecchio didn’t attend a university. 

Thanks for following along on another week!