Salt City Seven: Hot Start, Big Heart, Early Impressers & More

Markkanen and the Jazz have been surprisingly good in the season’s first week. (Gerald Herbert via sltrib.com)

The Salt City Seven is back! Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with seven recurring features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

A quick dissection of a big-picture topic or burning question relevant to the week in Jazzland.

Well, that was unexpected.

The Utah Jazz have opened the season a perfect 3-0, confounding expert predictions by beating three likely Western Conference playoff teams. They’ve played hard, unselfish, chaotic basketball on their way to head-turning wins against Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans, games the oddsmakers had them losing by a combined 24 points.

It has just been wildly fun to see them scrap their way to success. They haven’t even been winning in any one particular way. They beat Denver by crashing the offensive glass, racking up steals, and getting hot from the corners. They beat Minnesota by taking a boatload of threes and running whenever they could. The built a cushion in New Orleans by putting pressure on the rim. They used different closing lineups in each of the three games. They’ve just been a fun, weird, adaptive, stubborn surprise.

So was everybody wrong about the new-look Jazz? Maybe. Or maybe it’s just really early on in the process. It’s easy to find examples of early-season overperformers. The 2020-21 Magic started 4-0 (and 6-2) before eventually settling into the league’s third-worst record at 21-51, and that same season’s Cavs started 3-0 on their way to a 22-win season. The 2019-20 Timberwolves were 3-0 before a third-worst finish. The 2017-18 Grizzlies finished second worst even after starts of 3-0 and 5-1. The 19-63 Timberwolves of the 2013-14 campaign also started out 3-0.

So how do we know if the current Jazz are going to join that list of hot-starting bad teams or if they’re actually set up to continue defying expectations?

There are a few reasons that this unexpected start could still even out:

Scouting could catch up. Not only did the Jazz return just three rotation players from a season ago, but they also hired a new head coach in Will Hardy who showed up with his own basketball philosophies and system ideas. They’re a bit of a mystery to 29 other teams right now, on multiple levels: what they’re running, how they’re using guys, how the defensive philosophies have changed¹ and more.

Case in point: when the Lakers came out of a late timeout down 1 on Sunday, most people assumed LeBron James would take the final shot. Hell, even on the Pels’ final offensive possession against the Jazz, Utah’s broadcasters joked that the play was obviously drawn up for CJ McCollum. (It was.) Conversely, how many people inside Smoothie King Arena figured the decisive play would be Kelly Olynyk rumbling in on an iso from the top of the key? The Jazz are winning right now precisely because they’re completely unpredictable. At some point, opponents will have a better idea who and what the Jazz are, and they’ll be better prepared to deal with some of the chaos Hardy’s team is introducing.

Good old-fashioned regression. There’s a solid chance top scorer Lauri Markkanen isn’t going to average 24.0 points per game, or that Olynyk won’t shoot 75% from deep forever, or that Mike Conley Jr. isn’t going to play 35 minutes per game all season. There are always a lot of mirages in early-season sample sizes, and some stuff will catch up to the Jazz.

Same goes for some team-wide trends, like how Utah is currently holding teams to just 83.5 points per 100 halfcourt possessions despite having very little paint protection. It will be somewhat shocking if that number is anywhere near that level in another week or two.

Remember that two of Utah’s wins have come in overtime: which means if you flip any two possession outcomes from regulation, they could easily be 1-2. That’s what we mean when we say “small sample size theater.”

Maintaining this style of play is hard. There are also specific things about the way the Jazz have been winning that may not hold up. As one friend of the program tweeted during Sunday’s game, the Jazz thrive so much in chaos that perhaps it doesn’t suit them terribly well when the game calms down and gets back to being about sheer talent. Maybe that’s partially why they suddenly couldn’t buy a bucket in New Orleans, missing 12 straight shot and surrendering a 22-3 run to the Pels. They ultimately withstood it because of the 17-point cushion they had built by mucking the game up early, but the point is they may be a little overreliant on a level of eff-you energy that is hard to sustain every single second.

For that matter, can they even sustain their frenetic style over 82 games — or even over this early 5-games-in-7-nights stretch? Right now the team is succeeding by playing with the pedal to the metal, and that’s a hard thing to do for 48 minutes multiplied by 82 games, especially when you remember that three of their top four minute-getters are 30 or older.

Roster moves. And then let’s face it: there’s a good chance the front office isn’t done tinkering with this roster.

As other teams’ needs become clearer, Utah’s executives are going to get some phone calls. They have multiple veterans who could help win-now teams. This particular scribe doesn’t really believe in “showcasing” — NBA teams are too smart to let a few games swing their opinion too wildly about a player — but a nice enough start could help some GMs around the league to more easily imagine a version of Player X that could add a dimension to their roster.

Hot start aside, the Jazz are still open to moves, particularly those that create a wider contention window for the next competitive version of the Jazz. If they get an opportunity to add valuable draft capital or promising young players in exchange for their veterans, those opportunities will likely be prioritized more highly than maximizing 2022-23 outcomes.

But on the other hand…

Counterpoint: screw it, this is fun. However long this continues, this is a blast for the Jazz and their fans. So why not enjoy it? Don’t let over-analytical jerks like me police your fun with talk of regression or trades or opponents cracking the puzzle. Even if this 3-0 start becomes a footnote in the broader story of a rebuilding team with some struggles ahead, it’s still a welcome change of emotional energy and an exhiliarhating introduction to guys who could be laying the foundation for the next great Jazz era. And some of these dudes will still be on the team themselves when the Jazz climb back to relevance. So getting the chance to fall in love early at a time without weighty expectations is a cool blessing, even if the Jazz go 0-79 from here. (Spoiler alert: they won’t.)

So let’s decide together to not worry about how long this introductory surge will last and instead just enjoy the hell out of it while it’s happening.

In the words of Jazz players/people

“Our team’s got heart… This group is fun. They stick together, they root for each other.”

-Hardy, after Utah’s overtime win in New Orleans moved them to 3-0

The early vibes around what Hardy has been calling Team 49 have been a welcome reset for many Jazz fans. The last version of this team was fun in its own way, but ultimately fell short precisely because it lost some of the cohesion Hardy is already seeing from new Jazz players, some of whom are just weeks into their relationships.

“I think their ability to come together in the hard moments has been pretty amazing considering this team hasn’t been together very long,” the coach said.

Hardy’s helping build that trust by being authentic about his own learning process. As the NBA’s youngest head coach, it would be understandable if he tried to minimize conversation around his blind spots out of insecurity. Instead, he is leaning into the fact that he, like his players, is still very much in on-the-job training. After Sunday’s close win, he issued a proactive mea culpa for not using a timeout when the play broke down on their last possession in regulation. “We’ve talked about that as a team: there’s things that I have to continue to improve,” Hardy said.

Hardy made the calculation that he’d gain more credibility by being authentic than by feigning infallibility. It’s kind of brilliant. He wasn’t asked about using the timeout, he offered it up proactively both in defense of his players and to show he’s willing and able to diagnose even his own development areas. It’s just one more way the 34-year-old has looked extremely comfortable and capable early on.

“This is fun,” he said on Sunday. “I’m having a blast. This has been everything I dreamed of and more.”

Key stats that tell the story of the Jazz’s week

Remember that it’s borderline insane to assign stats any level of predictive importance after just three games. I’m sharing these because they’re interesting *descriptors* of what has happened so far, and because, well, I have to fill this section with something.

70.9%

So far, more than two thirds of the Jazz buckets have been assisted, the second highest proportion of NBA teams. Their 39 assists against Minnesota were an NBA season high so far, and five higher than their most generous assist game of last season. Their AVERAGE number of assists per game (32, rounded) would be tied for their fourth highest output from all of last season.

3

Hardy also touched on the fact that his team has now used three different closing lineups in as many games. Markkanen and Conley have closed all three games. Jordan Clarkson and Jarred Vanderbilt finished two of the three, once with Malik Beasley and the other with Olynyk. In the other, Collin Sexton closed in Clarkson’s spot, alongside Beasley and Rudy Gay. So there is a lot of variability, but the eight guys who have closed are all the established rotation players.

.614

Markkanen looks like a legit 3-level scorer. He had a .619 true shooting season two years ago as Chicago experimented with his versatility, and he’s back in that ballpark to start the year. Remembering that sample sizes are comically small, only a dozen players in the league have logged 100 minutes so far with at least 23% usage and .600 true shooting: 10 literal All-Star guards, Nikola Jokic… and the Finnisher. He’s looking really solid. If you popped out of a time machine and told me this current Jazz roster included the player who would become Utah’s next All-Star at some point, right now I’m assuming that guy is Markkanen.

5.3

That’s Vanderbilt’s foul-per-game average — kind of problematic. He has 16 total fouls in 71 minutes, a per-minute hack rate that would beat last season’s most foul-happy players by a mile². It won’t hold up at quite that level, and also he had a 15-point half and has already equaled his 2021-22 total of threes. Plus, his foul trouble has had a silver lining, because it has opened the door for…

+13.0

…Walker Kessler. His comfort level as a rookie has definitely been among the more surprising storylines so far. So many rookies spend time looking lost early on, but the young center already has a great understanding of where to be, where help is coming from, how to rotate, etc. Hardy has used him as both a paint anchor and also as a free roamer, the same way the Celtics used Robert Williams last year. That they already feel confident enough to give Kessler different assignments is a huge compliment. In 64 minutes, the Jazz have outscored opponents by +13.0 per 100 possessions. Again, take that as descriptive rather than predictive, but it’s still interesting for a rookie big man.

Projecting the Jazz’s place in the bigger picture

Longtime SC7 readers know that this section is usually called “Playoff Picture” — but this time around, we’re not entirely sure yet whether we’ll spend the winter and spring looking at playoff race graphics or calculating lottery odds.

Instead, I’m making this a bit more generic for now: a section where we’ll keep an eye on the standings but also monitor trends that are relevant to the Jazz’s rebuild.

For this week, we’ll give you a date to watch: October 31. Next Monday is the Jazz’s deadline to decide whether or not to exercise the options for Udoka Azuibuike’s fourth year or Leandro Bolmaro’s third. The former has yet to suit up this season, while the latter has played exactly one minute. It will be interesting to see if the Jazz rest Conley at all during this busy week of action, and if that creates any opportunities for Bolmaro to make his case for another year. He might be more likely to be picked up anyway since he’s relatively affordable: the guard’s 2023-24 salary is only a half million or so more than a minimum salary slot, whereas Dok’s ($3.9M) is nearly double if exercised.

Recognizing the best (or most memorable) performances from each Jazz outing

I did not predict that we’d have three game balls to give away in this first Salt City Seven, but that’s where we are. For those who are new to this gimmick, we give an imaginary Wilson to the hero of each Jazz win — and a consolation “strong in defeat” to the top (or most memorable) performer in a loss.

Jazz 123, Nuggets 102: Will Hardy. If this had been game 22 or something like that, I’d have given this to Vanderbilt, whose energy level was bonkers. The Jazz got their early lead precisely because of that energy and second-chance scoring, and Vando was key in generating that aspect too, with a team-leading 12 boards (5 offensive). Kessler deserves mention for his impressive debut, Sexton led the Jazz with an efficient 20, and Gay was really good. But this wasn’t game 22, it was game 1… and win number one for Hardy. Since the real game ball went to the coach, we’ll give the fake one to him, too.

Jazz 132, Wolves 126: Lauri Markkanen. For folks who may be new to this exercise, I often say that Game Ball is both a question of who was the “MVP of the game” and who was the “story of the game.” Sometimes that’s the same person, but occasionally it’s not, and when that’s the case I usually³ give slightly more weight to the former over the latter. Clarkson was the story of the game with his explosive second half (20 of his 29 points, on 7-for-8 shooting, plus five assists). But I’m not sure how you ignore 24-13-5, not to mention possibly the highlight of the night. Also considered: Conley was excellent, dished 11 assists, posted a +13, and hit the clincher. Olynyk couldn’t miss from outside.

Jazz 122, Pelicans 121: Lauri Markkanen. Somehow this one was even easier. It’s uncommon to see a guy pour in a 20-point half without ever feeling like he’s taking over or forcing his will. He finished with a monster 31-and-12 double double, and Hardy called it “the quietest 31” because it’s just so effortless and smooth. He also saved Utah’s collective butt in regulation by chasing down that errant pass and turning an almost sure turnover into an assist for Clarkson’s tying trey, and then he had go-ahead free throws in the final minute of OT. Olynyk is the other obvious choice since his 20 included the game winner, and Clarkson directed things late.

Looking ahead to the next seven nights of Jazz action

The Jazz’s win in Bayou Country on Sunday marked the start of a 5-games-in-7-nights stretch. They will reach next Sunday having played seven times in 12 days, and without having played consecutive games in the same city.

Monday 10/24, Jazz @ Rockets: Not that long ago, this home-and-home set probably felt like it could devolve into an early tank-off. Instead, it pits the hottest team of the first week of the season against the coldest. As of this writing, the Rockets haven’t won a game, and their average shortfall has been more than a dozen points per outing. Yikes. 

Wednesday 10/26, Jazz vs. Rockets: More on Houston: young guards Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are taking the reins as high-usage possession eaters, but so far both are doing so with below-average efficiency. KPJ has been red hot from three but so far is shooting 17.6% inside 10 feet, and nearly a fifth of Green’s attempts to date have been non-paint twos. Jae’Sean Tate (ankle) has yet to debut this season.

Friday 10/28, Jazz @ Nuggets: Reigning 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic will have only needed to wait a week for his chance at avending a season-opening loss to the Jazz, who have now claimed six in a row over the Nuggets. Since that stunner in Salt Lake, Denver is 2-0, and the Joker is 0.3 assists off from averaging a triple double in his first three outings. Jamal Murray doesn’t quite look like himself yet (14.0 ppg, but just .515 true shooting), but Michael Porter Jr. and new Nugget Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both shooting 50% from three on a combined 14 attempts per game. If Murray and Aaron Gordon find a rhythm, this team could get really scary.

Saturday 10/29, Jazz vs. Grizzlies: Memphis beat a pair of projected lottery teams before suffering a 41-point shellacking at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. Ja Morant has just been unreal so far, averaging 34 a game on 55-57-84 shooting splits through three. But with Jaren Jackson Jr. out for a while, the Grizzlies aren’t quite themselves. They’re starting a virtual rookie in JJJ’s place (Santi Aldama had just 360 NBA minutes under his belt coming into the year), and Desmond Bane’s shot has been off. They’re beatable right now, as Luka Doncic & Co. demonstrated so decisively.

Random stuff from the Jazz community

It’s *all* fun, right now, so there are a lot of choices here. We’ll let the elder statesman take us home:

This team! 🙌🏾💪🏾#gritty #takenote

— Mike Conley (@mconley11) October 24, 2022

Basketball is back! We’ll see you next week.