Salt City Seven: Ingles’ Involvement, Playoff Picture, Adding Ersan & More

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

Earlier in the year, we talked about how the multi-faceted Jazz were finding ways to win games. Whether it was by shooting lights out, stymying the opponents on defense, or grinding it greco-roman style, they just found ways to claw their way to wins.

Right now they’re doing the opposite. They’re finding diverse ways to drop games. In Miami, they had one of their worst halfcourt defensive nights of the year. Then they let New Orleans, a poor outside shooting team, convert the second highest percentage of threes by a team all season. A clutch collapse tripped them up in Philly, and then poor execution in San Francisco let the Warriors run a track meet on them.

The result is that the Jazz have just experienced their worst 6-game stretch of the year, sending fans scrambling to the trade machine with torches lit. 

But the answer to the Jazz’s woes might not be a pie-in-the-sky trade proposal.

Ask just about any pundit what the Jazz could use the most to bolster their chances at a deep playoff run, and they’ll mention wing defense before they draw their first breath or pause to think. What that means is that they think Utah needs one more big body who can deter an iso scorer or sap some efficiency from opponent pick-and-rolls. Ideally that player needs to be able to can open threes at a minimum, and if he can help organize the unit on nights when execution is lacking, that’s all the better. 

In other words, the Jazz need more of what Joe Ingles does. It’s probably time to start talking about the Aussie forward’s role as Utah heads into the second half.

Players isolating against Joe have shot 1-for-10 this season, with zero shooting fouls drawn and two turnovers. The sample is tiny, but those numbers put Ingles in the 99th percentile as an iso defender. (He held players to 0.81 points per iso possession last year, also comfortably better average.)  He’s also in the 65th percentile at corralling P&R ball handlers, and that’s where the lion’s share of his plays guarding a shot, turnover or shooting foul have come from (41%). Across all play types, opponents shoot 2.9 percentage points lower than their expected FG% when Ingles is the primary defender, per NBA tracking. He’s not a put-the-clamps on type of individual defender, but he moves his feet well enough and knows how to use the scheme to his advantage. In short: he’s still one of Utah’s better defensive options on the wing.

But he’s more than that. Ingles is one of the league’s best pick-and-roll creators by team points per P&R run, and also one of its most efficient scorers. Tony Snell — who plays roughly a quarter of Ingles’ minutes — is the only non-big with a higher point per shot number than Ingles. Obviously a lot of that has to do with his top-five percentage from 3-point territory (47%), but he’s also elite as a rim finisher (74%) and in floater range (57%). Quite frankly, Ingles is a bucket — except that we don’t think of him that way because he doesn’t force things as a low-usage player.

Not that he’s flawless. For one thing, you can go ahead and count two points anytime Ingles is the last man to beat on a fastbreak attempt in the paint, or even on some halfcourt 2-on-1s when Rudy Gobert is pulled away to help. He often doesn’t even contest in such situations, ostensibly because he’s calculated that his chance of altering the shot doesn’t justify the risk of compounding the breakdown by fouling.

But by and large, Ingles offers everything the Jazz are purportedly looking for as the trade deadline and buyout season draw near. He’s a plus defender, both in a general sense and in specific contexts that matter most for modern perimeter personnel. He’s an efficient scorer outside and in, an elite facilitator, and a smart dude who understands Utah’s read-and-react system as well as anybody. It’s no wonder he’s part of so many of Utah’s elite lineups.

And yet he’s seventh on the team in minutes played, eighth (among rotation guys) in usage. He disappears to the bench down the stretch of close games, just when Utah’s need for some mature and efficient offensive creation is the most acute, and when stopping opposing ball handlers is most urgent. Why?

Ingles should probably be more involved, but the problem is that the Jazz have a half dozen guys they trust to close, and the NBA frowns on playing six guys at once. Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are crunchtime locks. Mike Conley probably should be too, although there may times when matchups might dictate more length. Royce O’Neale is Utah’s designated on-ball defender down the stretch, and while Bojan Bogdanovic is catching some heat right now, he has won Utah a lot of games this season and last as a late-game bucket getter.

There are times when Ingles should probably finish a game over one of those latter three, as he did on Sunday when Bogdanovic again found himself struggling in Golden State. But whether he closes games or not, Ingles needs to be a lot more centrally involved for the Jazz whenever he does play.

Even when he’s on the court with hybrid bench units, the ball should be in his hands more than it currently is. Instead, the Jazz do a lot of freelancing in those minutes, settling for offense that leads to middling outcomes. For example, Jordan Clarkson is still using nearly 29% of Jazz possessions while he’s on the court¹, despite the fact that there are more efficient options all around him. That’s not only almost double Ingles’ usage, it’s also significantly higher than Conley’s, Bogey’s or Gobert’s. That was fine during the first month of the season when JC was shooting lights-out, but the law of averages has tugged him right back to the mean (.577 true shooting, league average is .572) and the Jazz haven’t really adjusted yet.

That’s not meant to be a knock on Clarkson, who provides something unique and important to the second unit offense. But *some* of those possessions should be reallocated to a more reliably efficient creation engine. Organizing bench minutes around an elite pick-and-roll creator is a safer bet in the long run than continuing to have a mid-efficiency iso option take over nearly a third of the team’s plays in those minutes.

There’s a good chance the Jazz are trying to save the 33-year-old Ingles, keeping his minutes in the mid 20s and his usage in the teens so that he has juice left when the playoffs arrive. That’s a reasonable argument for not fully uncorking Ingles at this point of the season.

But before you frantically scan the waiver wire and construct trade machine fantasies to find Utah a big wing who shoots well, creates efficient offense, and can guard the ball in P&Rs and isos, it’s worth remembering that the Jazz have a player precisely matching that description who is not fully deployed at the moment.

Now or later, they’re going to need more Ingles.

Let’s check in on the Western Conference playoff race, where all of the top teams find themselves scuttling a bit at the season’s midpoint.

If you’re alarmed about Utah’s 5-5 stretch, it may comfort you to know that both LA teams are 4-6 in their last 10. It’s a long season. Everybody goes through spells. 

The Jazz still have a big advantage over all of their primary competitors at the top of the conference in terms of schedule strength, but they have a lot of games coming up like the one they just lost: teams that are right below or around .500, but have All-Star talent that can activate on a given night. They won’t finish the season 34-0, but at some point they have to get back to winning more of those types of games — starting this next week with their visits to the Celtics and Raptors, both of which are probably better than their record, and the improving Bulls led by Zach LaVine. Mixed in there they also have 25th-ranked Washington that doesn’t quite fit the description above, but has been playing better of late. 

In other words, schedule strength is comforting, but it only matters if they find a way to win those games against middling opponents. Three of their last four losses came against teams currently ranked 12th, 21st and 15th in winning percentage. Only one of their next 12 games comes against a top-10 opponent (Brooklyn), so they have some chances to improve their record against mediocre-to-bad teams. 

We’ll actually drop two quotes here to acknowledge two separate important storylines, starting with Quin Snyder on the Jazz’s acquisition of veteran forward Ersan Ilyasova last Wednesday.

“Being a smart, intelligent player, and a guy that knows how to play, we think he’ll fit in well… One thing we’ve been really conscious of is the chemistry of the team. That’s the case here, and Ersan knows that. He wants to be a part of that. That’s the reason we thought it made as much sense as it did.”

Snyder also talked about what specifically Ilyasova can bring to the Jazz when he eventually gets his feet wet — his experience, defense, and “his ability to play multiple positions.” But mostly the reigning Coach of the Month preached patience as it relates to integrating Ilyasova into the Jazz’s on-court plans. Here you see him reference team chemistry as a reason not to immediately restructure the rotation around the incoming veteran, but he also acknowledged the adjustment period. 

Ilyasova also sounds conscious of not wanting to disrupt a formula that has mostly been working. “It’s a great group of guys,” he said. “The communication is there, they trust each other… The way they play, the chemistry is at a high level.”

On first glance, Ilyasova is a stretch big who just shoots an average percentage from three. That alone isn’t too exciting, which is why some (*raises hand*) were initially lukewarm about the signing. But a second look sheds light on some of the versatility Snyder talked about. Ilyasova has consistently been right around average as a roll finisher, which unlocks some different ways they can use him beyond a “glorified Georges Niang” type of role. He’s also a better rebounder than Bogdanovic or Niang, and offers a bit more length defensively. He doesn’t really protect the rim (his rim FG% allowed last year was right in between Gobert’s and Favors’, but on a fraction of the attempts those guys were contesting nightly), and for that reason alone I’m still pretty convinced he’s a 4 and not a 5. But he gives them some different strengths.

In a vacuum, he’s not necessarily an upgrade over anybody currently in the rotation, so who knows what his role will be in these last 34 games. But sometimes you can win a game just by having another skillset available on your bench, either because someone was struggling, got hurt, or just because you need a different look. At the prorated vet minimum, it’s a good depth signing.

“(Jazz staffer Doug Birrell) was a huge part of us… I’m very grateful I got seven years with him… It’s been one of the toughest weeks I’ve had, personally, in a very long time.”

-Joe Ingles, via @tribjazz

Our second quote of the week is on a sadder note, to pay tribute to Birrell, a member of the Jazz’s sports performance staff who passed away last Sunday. Snyder referred to Birrell as a “healer,” and it’s clear that the passing of this person who had been working with Jazz players for 21 years took a big emotional toll on players and staff alike. It’s a reminder that these guys are human beings first. On that level, a loss within their basketball family is probably the most significant thing that happened this week from a human perspective.

8:36

A lot of people were upset that the Jazz let a squad of mostly borderline NBA rotation players reduce a 23-point lead to four. And it wasn’t great, as Snyder would make clear later. But the entirety of Houston’s 27-8 run lasted 8:36 minutes. The Jazz were +23 up to that point, and +11 once they settled down and took care of business, winning 106-72 in the other 39:24 of the game. Runs happen, but the Jazz were still able to find the switch and make it a double-digit win. It wasn’t a great look, but probably not worthy of all the consternation from that night.

37%

If you want to kvetch about the Sunday loss to Golden State, on the other hand, have at it. The Jazz played pretty poorly in a lot of ways, but the main thing was impatient execution on offense leading to a track meet for the Dubs. Every fifth Warrior possession was a transition opportunity, including a staggering 37% of plays that followed a Jazz miss. GSW scored 158.3 (per 100) on those plays, and 152.6 in transition overall.

83

Utah’s poor execution fed right into Golden State’s plan to attack on the run. In particular, Mitchell (24 points on 18 shots, with 4 FT trips and 4 TOs), Bogey (9 points on 9 shots, 2 FT trips and 4 TOs) and Clarkson (21 on 23 shots, no FTs and 1 TO) used a combined 65 possessions and produced just 54 total points. That means that Utah’s ORtg on possessions that ended with one of those three — 3 of their best 4 scorers! — was just 83.0. That’s a lot of misses and turnovers that led directly to Warrior points.

15

As popular as Derrick Favors is, at some point it’s probably fair to acknowledge that he’s struggling to protect the rim this season. When he’s on the court, teams are getting 5% more shots at the rim, making 6.3% more of them, and overall shooting 3.3% better. All of those figures are in the bottom 10% of the league, per Cleaning the Glass. Some of that is because he alternates court time with a 2-time DPOY, but not all of it. In his last six Jazz seasons, opponents mostly shot somewhere in the 47-55% range at the rim with Favors nearby, with one outlier year at 58% when his back wasn’t right. Right now, they’re shooting 60%.

Just one game ball to give out this week, but we’ll also recognize a strong performer from Sunday’s loss.

Jazz 114, Rockets (sort of) 99: Donovan Mitchell. Yes, the Jazz let Houston get back in it. But ultimately, they were able to secure a 15-point win, and Mitchell’s aggressive play throughout is a big part of that. Mitchell took charge early and often on the way to a 28-7-8 night, and the late collapse happened mostly while he was sitting. (Houston’s C-team orchestrated a 27-8 surge over 8-plus minutes, but Mitchell was off the court for five of those.)  Bogdanovic was also good, as his +26 would suggest. He slowed the game down for Utah and picked apart Houston’s defense with three assists, eight free throw attempts and a 15-point night. O’Neale played with energy (10 & 11), Gobert had six blocks (plus 14 & 13), and Conley wound up with 20.  

Strong in Defeat:

• Jazz 119, Warriors 131: Rudy Gobert. Easy. His 24 points, 28 rebounds and four blocks were enormous, and as our Jake Lee put it, if you watched Gobert’s highlights and knew nothing else about the game, you’d assume the Jazz won by 20. Conley (23 points, 6 assists) was also very good and the Jazz played winning ball with him running the show.

The Jazz now hop from one corner of the country to the other: San Francisco to Boston. They have four games coming in the Eastern Conference, three of which will take place before our next SC7. 

Tuesday 3/16, Jazz @ Celtics: Boston has won its last six at home, and has been getting Kemba Walker back on track after a rough start to the season. The former All-Star debuted late, then shot 34% from the field and 31% from deep in his first 10 outings. Since February 23, Kemba is shooting 38% from three, scoring just over 20 a game, and leading the Celtics with 5.1 assists. Now it’s Jaylen Brown’s turn to struggle; the star wing is shooting just 25.5% from deep over his last seven games. Also of note: defensive ace Marcus Smart is back in the Boston lineup, though he’s currently on a minutes limit (21 and 19 minutes in his first two games back.)

Thursday 3/18, Jazz @ Wizards: The Wiz had a 7-1 stretch that included some big takedowns (Lakers, Boston, Denver x2) before they fell back to earth with five losses in their last six. Bradley Beal remains and unconscious scorer at 32.1 ppg, and Russell Westbrook is averaging a near triple-double. But Washington just doesn’t defend. They own the fourth worst DRtg in the league, largely because they don’t get back in transition (3rd worst at limiting opponent transition) and when they do they guard poorly (6th worst in halfcourt D). Beloved former Jazz guard Raul Neto has played well for them, but is currently listed as questionable with a rib contusion, so it’s not clear if he’ll get to face his close friend Gobert and other former mates.

Friday 3/19, Jazz @ Raptors: The Raps are better than their current 17-21 record, but injuries and COVID-19 protocols have really taken a toll here. They have the second-worst efficiency differential in the league over the last two weeks, with double digit losses to Detroit, Charlotte and Chicago. They’ve lost six of seven overall since peaking at 16-15, and it’s easy to see why: they’re currently without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby because of contact tracing. Kyle Lowry has had games of 14-and-19, 17-and-12, and a triple double with 20 points, 10 dimes and 11 boards during this 1-6 stretch, but he simply needs help. He might get it by Friday, as Toronto’s wings come out of isolation protocols.

Take your pick: 

• Green is officially back.
• Conley added another line to his résumé Monday morning: Oscar nominee. A short film Conley co-executive produced was nominated early Monday for an Academy Award. Trailer here. KSL’s Ben Anderson reported first.
• This was fun.
• I’m not sure “fun” was the right word, given the gravity of all that has happened in the last year, but this past week included a lot of retrospective coverage on the anniversary of the NBA’s March 11, 2020 shutdown… and obviously the Jazz’s role in it. We already highlighted the E:60 feature on Gobert that first aired on All-Star Sunday, but there was more stuff this week. Among my favorites: an ESPN 30 for 30 podcast on the day; Marc Stein’s Gobert-centric follow-up; an awesome oral history in The Oklahoman; and a candid conversation with Ramona Shelburne and Royce Young on the latest Lowe Post podcast.

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Are we having fun yet? 34 to go.