Salt City Seven: Late Execution, Bogey’s Quiet Confidence, Final Week & More

Every Monday during the regular season, the week here at SCH begins with the Salt City Seven: seven regular features that let us relive the biggest moments, key performances and hot issues in Jazzland from various angles. Check in every week for the quotes, stats, plays and performances that tell the stories from the last 168 hours in the world of the Jazz.

The Utah Jazz have taken more leads into the fourth quarter than any other team. It’s true. More than the juggernaut Suns, the impressive Grizzlies, more than any Eastern Conference contender, Golden State or Dallas. More than anybody.

If games ended after 36 minutes, the Jazz would be the uncatchable No. 1 seed with a record of 55-22-1. That’s significantly better than league-leading Phoenix at 46-31-1. Golden State is closest, at 50-26-3, and Boston is at 50-28-1.  Memphis (49-28-1) and Miami (49-29-1) are not far behind, but not close enough to catch the 55-win (through three quarters) Jazz.

But, it turns out, games last 48 minutes. So instead of being 5-plus games ahead of their closest competition  for the league’s best record, the Utah Jazz are teetering dangerously in sixth, just a game and a half ahead of a play-in spot. Those last 12 minutes have been a special kind of problem for the Jazz of late: two of last week’s losses came after the Jazz held 15-point fourth quarter leads.

All of this is to say that the Jazz clearly possess the ingredients and mindset necessary to play winning, even dominant basketball. They just far too often abandon those things as the game clock ticks past 36:00.

“Collectively, there has to be a calm, a sense of: these are the things we are going to do and execute with 4 minutes to go, and key in on that and do it,” Mike Conley said after the latest collapse, a consequential 107-111 loss in Golden State.

Those extended stretches of late-game futility have to feel especially frustrating to the Jazz knowing just how capable they are of playing the right way.

“I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know,” Donovan Mitchell said despondently after this week’s other fourth quarter collapse. “It’s the same shit.” 

“It’s like everything flows — and then it flows the wrong way, and we get disconnected more and more and more,” Rudy Gobert  told the Tribune. “And good teams know how to get us to that point.”

The Jazz are an offensive machine when things are “flowing” like the big fella described there. For the season, they tied for the NBA’s best true shooting mark at .590, but their true shooting at the end of close games is just 14th in the league. Their overall offense drops from its historic 116.3 levels to a paltry 106.9 in clutch scenarios. Their assist ratio goes down, and their pace actually speeds up considerably (from 97 to just north of 100), indicating that they lose some of that same patience in their typical level of execution.

“It’s not time to be free, time to be loose, time to relax, time to turn the ball over,” Conley added. “We have to really think the game almost slow it down mentally for all of us, and then get all five guys collectively with that mindset.”

Conley continued his clutch diagnostic: “We get a little too much in the iso-ball, or ‘it’s my turn, your turn’ situation. What got us to the 15-point lead, 12-point lead might have been pushing the ball, throwing it ahead, movement, movement, movement. If we don’t have anything, then we… let our guys who make plays, make plays. Collectively, we have to believe in the last four, five minutes (and) trust each other. We can still play the same way. We can still play with the pass, we can still be unselfish and win these games.”

There’s a certain nuance to talking about clutch basketball, because raw numbers are incapable of factoring in the way a defense changes in those crunchtime moments. In that context, teams need players who are skilled and dynamic enough to push back on what opponent schemes are trying to force or allow. Most basketball analysis by schlubs like me can occasionally pay that aspect of the clutch too little attention. Teams need a defense-breaker to win. But here we have a 15-year professional saying that, even in his qualitative assessment as a veritable Ph.D. of basketball, the Jazz are too concerned with solving problems individually down the stretch of close games.

That’s especially true of the guy who has the ball in his hands most often. And again, to a certain degree that’s the nature of the game of basketball. Mitchell is the guy who is going to have to take the toughest shots, be the focus of opponent schemes, and solve every new coverage. The Jazz need him to be that guy. But as Conley said, Mitchell and the Jazz as a unit can still figure out a way to unleash the full force of their elite offense if they play with mental sharpness, precision, and above all trust.

Of the five guys who most often close games, only Mitchell sees a sharp rise in his usage in the clutch — from 32.4% during the game as a whole to 38.3% in the last five minutes when the margin is five or less. Gobert’s and Conley’s usage stays roughly the same. Bojan Bogdanovic’s and Royce O’Neale’s usage rates both drop by about a third. So if you’re wondering who the intended audience was for Conley’s message of trust and team basketball, read that quote again and ask yourself who from Utah’s closing lineup has usage rates that suggest “a little too much iso-ball.”

That said, the message isn’t as simple as, “Shoot less.” Nobody calls Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid or Kevin Durant selfish for their 40-plus clutch usage rates, because their efficiency more or less holds up. So far, that just hasn’t been the case for Mitchell. He had one season (2019-20) where his clutch TS% was within a percentage point of his overall TS%, but for the most part it has been 4-8% lower. This season, it’s 16.5% lower. Some of that is just bad luck — “make or miss league” type of stuff. Some of that comes down to the type of shot — again, as the designated defense-breaker he’s going to have instances where he has to shoot against the shot clock, shoot more off the dribble, challenge a stout defense. And yes, some of it appeared to be related to trust, such as when Mitchell chooses the more difficult shot for himself over an (in many cases anyway) easier look for a teammate.

(Random observation: the other guy whose efficiency has completely abandoned him in the clutch is O’Neale. He’s shooting 14% in the clutch this year, including 11% from three. That’s a bit weirder for him, since almost every shot he takes in the clutch is a catch-and-shoot opportunity set up by the offense.)

If Mitchell gets the efficiency thing sorted out, look out. And he can do that: it’s no coincidence that the one year Spida’s clutch efficiency held up, the Jazz were a blistering 28-13 in close games. Mitchell also had 73.7% clutch true shooting in the 2020 playoffs, and 82.5% in last year’s postseason.

“I’ve done it, you know what I mean?” Mitchell said after Saturday’s loss. “I haven’t been great all year in these moments, but… this is what drives you, figuring stuff out like this. I will. I will.”

He’s right, he HAS done it, including when the stakes were highest. He absolutely can be the guy who carries the load for team in an efficient, winning manner. And doing that, as Quin Snyder has pointed out time and time again during Mitchell’s career, is selfless in its own way because of the burden it assumes.

As popular as it is right now to kvetch about Mitchell’s late-game decision-making, the best outcome for the Jazz isn’t that Mitchell stops taking shots — it’s that he makes more of them. If he keeps operating as the Jazz’s designated clutch battering ram, just with better shot outcomes, that’s what MVP candidates like Jokic, Embiid and Durant do. Nobody’s telling Ja Morant he’s selfish in the clutch, despite the fact that his clutch assist ratio is a little better than half of Mitchell’s and his clutch usage is higher. Why? Because he makes the shots (56.1%). Same goes for Luka Doncic (34.9% clutch usage, 57.2% TS), or DeMar DeRozan (38.9% usage, 67% TS).

And all of those guys’ teams have winning records in clutch games. Conversely, the Jazz are 14-17.

For better or worse, the Jazz’s performance in the clutch is going to be tied to Mitchell’s performance in the clutch. Sometimes that will mean making a few more of the tough shots defenses force him to take. Sometimes it will mean insisting on a better shot. And yes, sometimes it will mean trusting someone else too. 

Two weeks ago, the Jazz had a significant chance of climbing to the third seed. Instead, their 1-6 slide has them flirting with the play-in. Not that they’re in any real danger of falling to seventh. (Their magic number to avoid the play-in is two, and they certainly have two winnable games left.) But the simple fact we have to mention that possibility at all with six nights of NBA action left is a bit of a surprise. Remember, the Jazz were 1.5 games out of No. 1 on January 6. It has been a… complicated three months since then.

Of the 16 games left involving the teams currently sitting third through seventh, seven are against opponents that are already locked into their seed or have been eliminated from postseason contention. By the weekend, that number could be higher if the Pelicans (vs. GSW), Spurs (@ Dal) or Lakers (@ Den) have had their fates decided by then. So obviously a key factor this week will be how hard teams try.

In the Jazz’s case, all four of their opponents are teams that aren’t playing for much beyond pride, stats, contracts and maybe some sense of playoff rhythm. 

Games to watch: Most of the really interesting head-to-head battles already took place. There is not a single game this week involving two Western Conference teams who could finish the season tied with each other. Phoenix does have a potential first-round preview when they visit the Clippers, and a potential second-round preview when they face the Jazz. Grizz-Jazz and Grizz-Nuggets (both road games for Memphis) should be interesting affairs, and there’s a world in which the Grizzlies could face either team or both this postseason. The Warriors facing three straight teams who are fighting for the play-in could wind up being relevant — but will only matter to the Jazz if they start winning their own games.

“I think that even (though) we are not showing right now (in the) last couple of games, I think we are more prepared… We need every single guy to be healthy in order to keep in the postseason, but I think that, no matter how it looks right now, I think that we are more ready than we were last year.”

-Bogdanovic, to KSL-TV

This is an interesting counterpoint to all of the gloom out there. There’s something to be said for the collective confidence many Jazz players continue to exude that they’re just not that far from putting it all together.

“We’ll figure it out,” Mitchell said repeatedly after the latest batch of setbacks. Conley talked about the “small, small details” the Jazz need to fix with regard to late-game execution. Gobert has frequently said, “We’ve done it.”

Bogey also continued on to reference the “lot of defense, lot of set offense we are running,” an apparent nod to the fact that the Jazz have been experimenting with things on both end to enhance their flexibility.

There’s something to be said about being prepared through adversity. Last year, the Jazz were so dominant playing THEIR style that there was rarely any need to do anything outside that. Except that then when that wasn’t available to them in the playoffs — partially due to health and partially due to scheme quirks — they had nowhere else to go. Perhaps what Bogey is trying to say here is that in the pain of some of those setbacks are lessons the Jazz will take into the postseason that they didn’t have last year. 

+27

Hey, there was some good news from the Jazz’s week! They got Bogey and Danuel House Jr. back from injury, and the latter was part of a reimagined “bridge lineup” that looked pretty good. House’s defense and Juancho Hernangomez’s all-around energy, it turns out, make them worthy complements to those quarter-spanning lineups that have struggled since the Jazz lost Joe Ingles to injury (and subsequently trade). Lineups with Conley, Gobert and Jordan Clarkson were a huge competitive advantage last season, obliterating opposing benches to the tune of +20.2 per 100. They were working this year, too — with Ingles. Those lineups with Ingles were +17.4, but the iterations without the Aussie forward haven’t been nearly as dominant (+4.5). That’s why this new-look rotation is interesting: House had a raw +27 in two games this week, Hernangomez +30 over three.

45%

That said, I take Quin Snyder at face value when he says that the Jazz will need Rudy Gay during the postseason, and the veteran has quietly turned around some of his shooting woes that made his January and February so frustrating: he’s shooting 45% from deep since March 7.

7

The Jazz haven’t had a single game in their last seven where their defense was even average, per Cleaning the Glass. The Laker game on Thursday was the closest, with a 114.3 defensive efficiency outside of heaves and garbage time, but even that was in the 42nd percentile for games this season. The other six games over that span — all losses, incidentally — ended with a 119.4 defense (27th %ile) or worse. 

56.3%

On Saturday, the Warriors took 56.3% of their shots as threes. That’s one of the highest proportions of any team in any game this season, again per CTG. The Jazz clearly wanted to protect the paint at all costs — the 11.5% of shots they took at the rim were one of the very LOWEST of the NBA season — but that came as a cost.

We have just one hunk of rubber to hand out this week, along with a couple of (sad trombone) consolation prizes.

Jazz 122, Lakers 109: Rudy Gobert. This was the first time this season (and only 16th time this century) that an NBA player racked up at least 25 and 17 on 11 or fewer shots from the field, making this a pretty unique night for Gobert. It was the perfect use case for how the Jazz can get Gobert more involved in the offense. That said, Mitchell was right there with him after a 29-point, 7-assist night. Conley and Clarkson also both took turns carrying the torch.  

Strong in defeat:

• Jazz 115, Clippers 121: Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell had some issues down the stretch — three of his six turnovers came in the final seven minutes — but honestly, Mitchell was pretty spectacular here overall: 33 points (on 21 shots) and six assists is pretty hard to complain about. Conley and Clarkson (36 between them) were again both really important to the offense, and both Juancho Hernangomez (13 & 6) and Rudy Gay (11 on 4-for-4 shooting) had good nights, contributing to an interesting discussions around Utah’s backup four role.
• Jazz 107, Warriors 111: Mike Conley. Conley and Mitchell both ended up right at 26 points, but Conley edges his younger teammate here for a few reasons. His 26 were more a tiny bit more efficient (18 shots to Don’s 19); he did more other stuff (8 assists, 5 boards to Don’s 3 and 3); and the Jazz won his minutes convincingly (+13 to Don’s -21). Both guys were really good (another clutch breakdown notwithstanding), but this one clearly belongs to Mike. Gobert was also awesome (14 points and 20 boards), and a new-look bench with Hernangomez and House was as good as the “bridge lineup” has looked in a really long time. 

Here we go. This is it. Four more.

Tuesday 4/5, Jazz vs. Grizzlies: Morant will be out, and Dillon Brooks is doubtful, but beyond that we don’t quite know how the Grizzlies, who are already guaranteed the No. 2 seed, will approach this game. They sat four starters on Friday night, but bested the Phoenix Suns anyway, so one way or another, the Jazz are going to have some work on their hands. Utah is 0-2 against Memphis this season, and I’m sure they wouldn’t mind tasting some success against a team that could very well wind up a second-round opponent if the Jazz advance. (Or hell, even a first-round opponent if the week goes really bad for Utah this week.)

Wednesday 4/6, Jazz vs. Thunder: OKC has already shut down eight players for the season, including basically anyone who regularly plays rotation minutes: star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, gritty defender Lu Dort, precocious rookie playmaker Josh Giddey and more. The Jazz won’t even get to play against former mate Derrick Favors. Guys like Theo Maledon and Alex Pokusevski are getting the bulk of the minutes and shots right now, and while both of those guys have done nice things, this isn’t a team that is concerned with winning basketball games as present. They did beat a Phoenix team that was resting three starters, but that was just their second win against a playoff-bound team since the All-Star break.

Friday 4/8, Jazz vs. Suns: Speaking of the Suns’ loss to OKC… Phoenix has certainly taken its foot off the gas (wisely) since locking up homecourt throughout the playoffs. They’ve started to shift towards rest-focused rotations, with Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and Jae Crowder each taking Sunday off against the Thunder. No injury report has been submitted as of this writing for Tuesday night in L.A., but it’s safe to expect them to focus on health and rest this week with their position locked in. The Jazz kept the two January games close despite being without both Mitchell and Gobert, and then finally broke through with a 4-point win in Phoenix in February (but Chris Paul didn’t play). So we still haven’t seen these two teams battle at full strength — and we might not this week, either.

Sunday 4/10, Jazz @ Blazers: Portland is 2-17 since the break and has very little interest in winning basketball games. Against teams that are currently slated in the 16 playoff spots, they have lost seven straight by an average margin of — no joke — 29.0 points. Damian Lillard hasn’t played since New Year’s Eve, and that’s just the tip of the injury iceberg: five other Blazers have been ruled out for the rest of the season, including Joe Ingles who was dealt to Portland after tearing his ACL. You always have to be wary of “Fan Appreciation Night” energy, but the Jazz should be in a position to grab this one.

A fight that matters even more than all these complicated playoff graphs:

Last night, Melissa’s family rang the bell to honor all those who have lost their battle with cancer. 🔔❤️

We are proud to have partners like @5ForTheFight_ who are working tirelessly to find a cure for this devastating disease.#5ForTheFight pic.twitter.com/1w597Qq4Lw

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) April 2, 2022

Still love that they do this with their jersey patch. 

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We’ll wrap up the season with one final Salt City Seven next Monday… and then roll right into playoff coverage!